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State of the Race: 38 Days Left

vcczar

By vcczar,
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38 Day Poll  

22 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Democrats proposes a law setting term limits for SC Justices to 18-years and limiting each president to appointing only 2 justices per 4-year term. If you were a member of Congress, would you support 18-year term limits and nomination restriction?

    • Yes, this seems reasonable.
      5
    • Yes, even though I'd prefer shorter terms.
      3
    • Yes, even though I'd prefer longer terms.
      0
    • No, because I oppose term limits on principle.
      2
    • No, because I prefer shorter terms.
      0
    • No, because i prefer longer terms.
      1
    • Yes, even though I'm not completely comfortable with the nomination restriction.
      1
    • Yes, even though I prefer the presidents only make one nomination per 4-year term.
      0
    • No, because the presidential restriction is too restrictive.
      4
    • No, because the presidential restriction is not restrictive enough.
      0
    • No, because I oppose both term limits and presidential restrictions on nominations on principle.
      7
    • Other (mention below)
      0

  3. 3. If Donald Trump played American football in a matchup between Democratic Presidential Nominees and Republican Presidential Nominee, what position would Donald Trump play?

    • Quarterback
      4
    • Running Back
      0
    • Wide Receiver
      0
    • Full Back or Tight End
      3
    • Offensive Line
      6
    • Defensive Line
      5
    • Linebacker
      1
    • Defensive Back
      0
    • Kicker or Punter
      1
    • I don't know enough about football to make a guess.
      3

  4. 4. Same question but for Joe Biden

    • Quarterback
      4
    • Running back
      1
    • Wide Receiver
      7
    • Tight End or Fullback
      3
    • Offensive Line
      0
    • Defensive Line
      1
    • Linebacker
      1
    • Defensive Back
      0
    • Kicker or Punter
      3
    • I don't know enough about football to make a guess.
      3

  5. 5. Who would win in this year's election if Barack Obama was allowed to have a non-consecutive 3rd term?

    • Trump, but I don't think Trump will beat Biden.
      0
    • Trump, and I also think he will beat Biden.
      3
    • Obama, but I don't think Biden will beat Trump.
      4
    • Obama, but I also think Biden will beat Trump.
      16

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vcczar

vcczar 1,224

Posted
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Posted
24 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I find it interesting on the one hand you seem to be saying 'it's no big deal' and on the other saying 'if he loses, this will be why'. (!)

It shouldn't be that perplexing. 

Biden isn't campaigning because Biden doesn't need to campaign to win. 

If Biden loses it is because he needed to campaign. And if he needs to campaign and doesn't campaign, then this is why he lost. 

It is dependent on if he needs to. He doesn't need to. He can beat Trump without campaigning. Most people don't want Trump in office. More people are okay with a candidate not campaigning actively in a pandemic. 

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admin_270

admin_270 833

Posted
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17 minutes ago, vcczar said:

It shouldn't be that perplexing. 

Biden isn't campaigning because Biden doesn't need to campaign to win. 

If Biden loses it is because he needed to campaign. And if he needs to campaign and doesn't campaign, then this is why he lost. 

It is dependent on if he needs to. He doesn't need to. He can beat Trump without campaigning. Most people don't want Trump in office. More people are okay with a candidate not campaigning actively in a pandemic. 

Then why say 'if he loses, this will be the reason'? You could just say 'he isn't going to lose, so this doesn't matter' or some such thing. OK. Obviously, I'm not convinced at this point he can just glide to a victory, but perhaps you're right and it doesn't really matter.

The only real defense of this I can see is positing that more public events will net be neutral or damage the campaign. That very well may be true, given Biden's tendency towards gaffes, brain freezes, and so on.

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vcczar

vcczar 1,224

Posted
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13 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Then why say 'if he loses, this will be the reason'? You could just say 'he isn't going to lose, so this doesn't matter' or some such thing. OK. Obviously, I'm not convinced at this point he can just glide to a victory, but perhaps you're right and it doesn't really matter.

The only real defense of this I can see is positing that more public events will net be neutral or damage the campaign. That very well may be true, given Biden's tendency towards gaffes, brain freezes, and so on.

You are correct in that I should say that I don't think he's going to lose, so it doesn't matter. I'm about 90% sure Biden is going to win. (I was 60% about a month ago). I don't think Trump has time to turn this around. People are already voting. I think people have made up their mind on Trump. I don't think Trump wins without voter suppression (cancelling mail-in ballots primarily to reduce votes rather than for security reasons or shenanigans at polling stations in heavily Democratic areas or Russians). 

Could more campaigning hurt Biden? It's possible. In this sense, let Trump set himself on fire strategy is working, since it could be a set Biden on fire if he campaigns. Both are kind of self-defeating candidates at times. 

It's probably some strategy. I don't think Biden is ill in anyway. He might use the debates as a kind of spring board for campaigning. He may have to campaign if Trump beats him in the debates.

Of the dozens of things going on in this election. Biden going home early isn't that important. He could probably sleep himself to victory, he's clearly winning (at least momentarily) despite not having left his bedroom. 

 

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Zenobiyl

Zenobiyl 209

Posted
Posted
On 9/25/2020 at 3:02 PM, admin_270 said:

What I find interesting is how few Republicans seem worried that Biden is ~+7% nationally, and leading in key swing states.

They seem kinda worried considering they’re jamming a SCOTUS nominee through in far less time than the norm.

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billay

billay 163

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

Presidential National Average Lead On Sept 27:

2004: Bush +6.4

2008: Obama +4.3

2012: Obama +4

2016: Clinton +1.6

2020: Biden +7.3

per Politics USA twitter page

Hmm I looked at RCP around this time in 2016 and it was pretty much the same as it is now in 2020.

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