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State of the Race: 38 Days Left


38 Day Poll  

22 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Democrats proposes a law setting term limits for SC Justices to 18-years and limiting each president to appointing only 2 justices per 4-year term. If you were a member of Congress, would you support 18-year term limits and nomination restriction?

    • Yes, this seems reasonable.
    • Yes, even though I'd prefer shorter terms.
    • Yes, even though I'd prefer longer terms.
      0
    • No, because I oppose term limits on principle.
    • No, because I prefer shorter terms.
      0
    • No, because i prefer longer terms.
    • Yes, even though I'm not completely comfortable with the nomination restriction.
    • Yes, even though I prefer the presidents only make one nomination per 4-year term.
      0
    • No, because the presidential restriction is too restrictive.
    • No, because the presidential restriction is not restrictive enough.
      0
    • No, because I oppose both term limits and presidential restrictions on nominations on principle.
    • Other (mention below)
      0
  3. 3. If Donald Trump played American football in a matchup between Democratic Presidential Nominees and Republican Presidential Nominee, what position would Donald Trump play?

    • Quarterback
    • Running Back
      0
    • Wide Receiver
      0
    • Full Back or Tight End
    • Offensive Line
    • Defensive Line
    • Linebacker
    • Defensive Back
      0
    • Kicker or Punter
    • I don't know enough about football to make a guess.
  4. 4. Same question but for Joe Biden

    • Quarterback
    • Running back
    • Wide Receiver
    • Tight End or Fullback
    • Offensive Line
      0
    • Defensive Line
    • Linebacker
    • Defensive Back
      0
    • Kicker or Punter
    • I don't know enough about football to make a guess.
  5. 5. Who would win in this year's election if Barack Obama was allowed to have a non-consecutive 3rd term?

    • Trump, but I don't think Trump will beat Biden.
      0
    • Trump, and I also think he will beat Biden.
    • Obama, but I don't think Biden will beat Trump.
    • Obama, but I also think Biden will beat Trump.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

This is the most volatile polling day yet! Both candidates seem to both win and lose big today in several states. 

Good day for Trump: Biden falls -0.3 nationally. This is reflected in support for Biden falling again in AZ. Trump's GA support jumps back up after crashing recently. Trump has a noticeable increase in support in TX. Trump cuts Biden's lead in MI, but the lead is so large that MI is still Likely Blue. Similarly, Biden's lead is cut in MN, but that state is still Safe Blue (+9). NH support falls for Biden, moving the state from Safe Blue to Leans Blue. Also, MT is now Safe Red again. 

Biden also has some good news: Ohio swings to Biden in recent polls. State flips from Leans Red to Leans Blue. Biden's loss of support in NV also seems to be a fluke. Several new polls have Biden with a large lead, causing his average to jump over 3 pts. NV moves back from Leans Blue to Likely Blue. Additionally, every poll this month has had Biden winning ME-2, including the new poll today. In fact, Trump hasn't won in a poll there in months, so it is now Lean Blue on the map. 

Overall, Trump has broader success, but he doesn't help himself in the map. Biden sees several changes on the map, which means his fewer successes today were more important in the short-term. However, it is very possible that Biden's boost in OH is a fluke. We'll find out if that is the case when I do the next update on Monday. 

 

Categories 38 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.1 (-0.3) Biden +0.6 Biden -0.9
AZ avg Biden 3.3 (-0.3) Biden -1.5 Biden +0.4
FL avg Biden 1.6 (-0.3) Biden -0.5 Biden -6.0
GA avg Trump 1.2 (+0.6) Trump -0.2 Trump -0.1
IA avg Trump 0.8 (+0.2) Trump -1.1 Trump +0.5
MI Avg Biden 6.9 (-0.5) Biden -0.6 Biden -0.5
MN avg Biden 9.0 (-0.5) Biden -0.2 Biden -2.1
MO avg Trump 6.8 (+0.5) Trump 0 Trump +1.3
MT avg Trump 8.2 (+1.6) Trump +0.1 Trump -2.5
NV avg Biden 6.8 (+3.3) Biden +1.4 Biden +0.1
NH Avg Biden 6.7 (-2.4) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.8
NC avg Biden 1.1 (-0.3) Biden 0 Biden -1.1
OH avg Biden 1.0 (+1..6) Biden +2.3 Biden +3.1
PA Avg Biden 4.7 (0) Biden -0.1 Biden -2.1
SC avg Trump 6.9 (+1.1) Trump -0.2 Trump +0.3
TX avg Trump 1.9 (+0.7) Trump +0.4 Trump +1.9
WI Avg Biden 6.5 (-0.1) Biden -0.3 Biden -0.6
Trump Approval 43.2 (+0.4) -0.2 3
Trump Disapproval 53.1 (-0.1) 0.5 -2.6
Favorability Biden 16.1 (-0.1) Biden -1.2 Biden +4.4
Direction of the Country -37.2 (0) 1.8 8.3
Generic Ballot Dem 5.5 (-0.3) Dem -0.2 Dem -3.1
Betting Markets Biden 53.7 (+0.3) Biden +0.8 Biden -7.0
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +2    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +5.1    

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

What I find interesting is how few Republicans seem worried that Biden is ~+7% nationally, and leading in key swing states.

That’s because they know the election won’t matter.  Trump will continue being the President anyway.

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1 hour ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Ohio is Trump country.

My neighborhood in Ohio was a terrifying sea of “Lock Her Up” signs in 2016.

Now most yards have no signs at all.
 

 Those who do are maybe 60% Trump, 40% Biden.

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Not just Presidential polls. Look at Senate polls - NC, ME, IA, AZ all currently have polling averages indicating defeat of incumbent Republicans.

I'm still shocked (as much as I like her personally) that Greenfield is leading a senator like Ernst in Iowa. Iowans typically like their incumbent senators (see: Grassley, Harkin). Shes relatively unknown still, but is leading Ernst. That is a bad sign. 

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Either a) polls are substantially wrong, b) there is a significant shift + Republicans from here to Nov. 3rd, or c) Republicans lose the Presidency, lose the Senate (50-50 if they lose the Presidency means they lose the Senate), and stay as minority in the House.

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Biden at starting QB, an eventual D1 College Football starter, and gets drafted

Trump at practice squad FB (which 99.9% of the time doesn't happen-That's how bad Trump would be-Trumps dad pays the coach to basically give him a made up spot on the team)

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14 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Biden at starting QB, an eventual D1 College Football starter, and gets drafted

Trump at practice squad FB (which 99.9% of the time doesn't happen-That's how bad Trump would be-Trumps dad pays the coach to basically give him a made up spot on the team)

I was seeing Trump as a very disharmonious and fumble prone FB that somehow had a cult following with his team's fan base. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I was seeing Trump as a very disharmonious and fumble prone FB that somehow had a cult following with his team's fan base. 

This exactly, lol.

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I put Trump as Defensive line because he's a unit and usually offensive line guys are faster than defensive and I don't see him running much. Biden as tight end.

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Another morning lid for the Biden campaign, not that libs seem to care.

I don't think anyone cares except for Trump's campaign. It's a non-issue. There was finally a mention of it by a major news source this week (Politico), which seemed to also dismiss it. They think Biden's strategy is to just let Trump "set himself on fire." 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

I don't think anyone cares except for Trump's campaign. It's a non-issue. There was finally a mention of it by a major news source this week (Politico), which seemed to also dismiss it. They think Biden's strategy is to just let Trump "set himself on fire." 

The problem I see here is, when the strategy fails everyone will be "shocked" again and ask why this could happen. Like when Hillary Clinton ignored the rust belt states.

Instead of being shocked afterwards, try to run a reasonable campaign before the election.

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28 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

The problem I see here is, when the strategy fails everyone will be "shocked" again and ask why this could happen. Like when Hillary Clinton ignored the rust belt states.

Instead of being shocked afterwards, try to run a reasonable campaign before the election.

I don't think so. I think if Biden loses this will be why. However, I don't see it as hurting him at the moment. 

If Biden is up like +5 to +10 in the polls and loses, then it is likely something other than this. Likely voter suppression or something.

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31 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

If Trump were doing this, would you find it interesting?

No. I'd probably respect him a little more in a pandemic election. If Biden were doing this and there wasn't a pandemic, it would bother me. 

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I'm honestly not sure if Biden will survive a full four years as President. He's gonna be 78 when he becomes President, and he's clearly in the early throes of dementia. While dementia patients have varying symptoms and responses to stimuli, one pretty universal thing between them all is that they can't really respond to stress or confusion well, and if extreme enough, this actually speeds up the dementia process. I'm not sure Biden can handle that every single day (Biden got significantly more dementia-like symptoms after serving as Vice President), whereas Trump, the businessman, is certainly used to handling stress every day.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

No. I'd probably respect him a little more in a pandemic election. If Biden were doing this and there wasn't a pandemic, it would bother me. 

He can have public events and more media stuff while still being quite careful.

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