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State of the Race: 39 Days Left


vcczar
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39 Day Poll  

27 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Is Trump or his administration corrupt? Which most fits your opinion.

    • Trump has been as corrupt or more corrupt than Nixon, arguably the most corrupt president in US History.
    • Trump is corrupt but not as corrupt as Nixon.
    • Trump is no more corrupt than most presidents.
    • Trump is less corrupt than most presidents.
    • Trump hasn't been especially corrupt, but his administration is as corrupt or more corrupt than the most corrupt administrations in US History: Buchanan, Grant, Harding, Nixon and Reagan.
    • Trump is absolutely not corrupt, but his administration might be.
      0
    • Trump and his administration are about as corrupt as any presidency--no more and no less.
    • Both Trump and his administration are virtually free of corruption.
      0
    • Trump and his administration are an anti-corruption presidency and administration.
      0
    • Both Trump and his administration have been the most corrupt in US History.
      0
    • Other (mention below)
  3. 3. Is it a problem that a president (Trump) declined to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses?

  4. 4. Is it a problem that Trump seems to want the election to be decided by the Supreme Court, especially considering the GOP is about to ram through a nomination to make it 6-3 Conservative?

  5. 5. How long does it generally take you to read my posts and take my polls?

    • Less than a minute
    • Less than 3 minutes
    • About 5 minutes
    • About 10 minutes
      0
    • About 15 minutes
      0
    • Over 15 minutes.
      0


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8 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Depends how accurate the polling ave. is. Polling ave. for MI going into election night was off significantly. RCP ave. had Clinton +3.6%. Actual result was Trump +0.3%, so ~4% biased towards Clinton.

Even with that bias remarkably occurring again, Biden would win the state right now by almost +4! 

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15 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Even with that bias remarkably occurring again, Biden would win the state right now by almost +4! 

No, RCP ave. is Biden +5.2 in MI right now. So he would win by 1.3%. A 1.3% change doesn't require a 'total collapse', rather it's a small margin that could be erased fairly easily.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

No, RCP ave. is Biden +5.2 in MI right now. So he would win by 1.3%. A 1.3% change doesn't require a 'total collapse', rather it's a small margin that could be erased fairly easily.

Yeah, that's RCP though

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1 hour ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I see absolutely no problem when the election is decided by the Supreme Court. On the contrary, this could calm down the atmosphere, as a decision by the highest court takes away the legitimacy of any protests from both camps. One could still criticize the ruling obviously, but there is absolutely no encouragement for further violence I believe.

I do, since the court has been stacked by republicans.

 

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31 minutes ago, vcczar said:

It didn't have to do it. But if Trump were opposed to a peaceful transfer of power, do you think the Senate voting like this would change his mind?

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

It didn't have to do it. But if Trump were opposed to a peaceful transfer of power, do you think the Senate voting like this would change his mind?

No it wouldn't, but them doing this means they want to assure Americans that they won't allow Trump to disrupt a transfer of power. I don't think it changes his mind. It might cause him to backtrack on his comments or clarify them. He's embarrassing. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, that's RCP though

Sure ... 538 was off by more than RCP for MI in 2016. Clinton +4.2%, so 4.5% off. Currently projecting Biden +7.3%. Would be 2.8%. If you want to take the poll aggregator that was off by more in 2016 for MI, then a 2.8% shift is still not 'total collapse' for a campaign.

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7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Sure ... 538 was off by more than RCP for MI in 2016. Clinton +4.2%, so 4.5% off. Currently projecting Biden +7.3%. Would be 2.8%. If you want to take the poll aggregator that was off by more in 2016 for MI, then a 2.8% shift is still not 'total collapse' for a campaign.

538 wasn't doing anything with polling in the way they are for 2020. They've basically created an enhanced version of RCP. The polls it bans are the same polls not included in RCP. RCP has not added any new polling companies since 2016. 538 uses the new polling companies that have emerged since 2016 creating a more accurate average of the polls. RCP polls are just averaging the few polls they use, that isn't an accurate estimate of the polls. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

538 wasn't doing anything with polling in the way they are for 2020. They've basically created an enhanced version of RCP. The polls it bans are the same polls not included in RCP. RCP has not added any new polling companies since 2016. 538 uses the new polling companies that have emerged since 2016 creating a more accurate average of the polls. RCP polls are just averaging the few polls they use, that isn't an accurate estimate of the polls. 

Yes, but you're simply assuming they are more accurate. You can't know that at this point.

Anyway, my working assumption is Biden is at least up by a few points in MI as of now, and that it will take some significant shift for Trump to win the state.

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27 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Trafalgar Group latest poll in MI is Trump +1. Trafalgar was closest to being correct in 2016 for MI.

Yeah, but it's also got a C+ grade and a sharp conservative bias. It was accurate on the presidential election, but it was less accurate on other elections, showing the bias, which means it is generally less accurate than many pollsters. It sort of just got lucky in its last poll for 2016 in MI. Can it get lucky again? 

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Just now, vcczar said:

Yeah, but it's also got a C+ grade

... from 538! Which has a much worse record at predicting MI re Trump.

Your hypothesis is that Trafalgar got lucky, but Trafalgar explicitly tried to ferret out real support. So they might have been lucky ... or they might have been closer to right because they suspected most polls weren't getting accurate samples and adjusted their methodology accordingly. We don't know which is right.

 

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23 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Fox Poll has Biden +5 in Ohio. Big boost there.

Yeah that will be reflected in tomorrow update. Actually lots of good poll for Biden coming in today. Election seems to be moving away from Trump. 

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I dont think MN is so safe a democrat states as you all think. Like ive said ive lived here all my life and the amount of money pouring into this state not just for President but also the Senate. There are three different outside group ads hammering Tina Smith while I havent seen a single Pro Tina ad either from outside groups or her campaign. The riots really moved the state to the right and now with our Governor doing the extreme policies regarding covid and forcing businesses to pay their property taxes in full before being able to reopen after the riots and the pandemic. I think Trump has a 60% chance to win this state. The old democratic counties out state have so firmely flipped and the amount of people upset about the response to the riots have really pushed the state to the right. 

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15 minutes ago, Berg2036 said:

I dont think MN is so safe a democrat states as you all think. Like ive said ive lived here all my life and the amount of money pouring into this state not just for President but also the Senate. There are three different outside group ads hammering Tina Smith while I havent seen a single Pro Tina ad either from outside groups or her campaign. The riots really moved the state to the right and now with our Governor doing the extreme policies regarding covid and forcing businesses to pay their property taxes in full before being able to reopen after the riots and the pandemic. I think Trump has a 60% chance to win this state. The old democratic counties out state have so firmely flipped and the amount of people upset about the response to the riots have really pushed the state to the right. 

What accounts for Biden polling a 8 to 10 pt lead vs Trump in all recent MN polls?

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10 hours ago, pilight said:

So the places where the protests are occurring are going more Democratic and the places watching them on TV are going more Republican.  Interesting.

Funny how that works, innit?

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