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State of the Race: 39 Days Left


39 Day Poll  

26 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Is Trump or his administration corrupt? Which most fits your opinion.

    • Trump has been as corrupt or more corrupt than Nixon, arguably the most corrupt president in US History.
    • Trump is corrupt but not as corrupt as Nixon.
    • Trump is no more corrupt than most presidents.
    • Trump is less corrupt than most presidents.
    • Trump hasn't been especially corrupt, but his administration is as corrupt or more corrupt than the most corrupt administrations in US History: Buchanan, Grant, Harding, Nixon and Reagan.
    • Trump is absolutely not corrupt, but his administration might be.
      0
    • Trump and his administration are about as corrupt as any presidency--no more and no less.
    • Both Trump and his administration are virtually free of corruption.
      0
    • Trump and his administration are an anti-corruption presidency and administration.
      0
    • Both Trump and his administration have been the most corrupt in US History.
      0
    • Other (mention below)
  3. 3. Is it a problem that a president (Trump) declined to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses?

  4. 4. Is it a problem that Trump seems to want the election to be decided by the Supreme Court, especially considering the GOP is about to ram through a nomination to make it 6-3 Conservative?

  5. 5. How long does it generally take you to read my posts and take my polls?

    • Less than a minute
    • Less than 3 minutes
    • About 5 minutes
    • About 10 minutes
      0
    • About 15 minutes
      0
    • Over 15 minutes.
      0


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Huge day for Biden! His national poll numbers just shot way up. Several polls have his lead at +10 over Biden when 3rd parties are included. That's very worrisome for Trump. 

MT is now added as a battleground state! The polling average has now dropped below +8 for Trump. It's +6.6! At the 100 day mark it was over +10 for Trump. 

Biden cuts way into Trump's lead in IA. He also cuts into Trump's lead noticeably in both SC and MO, but Trump's lead is large in these places. Biden cuts into Trump's lead significantly in OH. 

NH is now polling way out of Trump's orbit. MN is clearly out of Trump's orbit. 

Trump has some good new too. Trump has completely reduced Biden's lead in NV. He is still cutting Biden's lead in AZ. Trump actually led in an AZ poll (+1) for the first time in 2020 vs Biden. Trump increases his lead somewhat in TX. 

I was close to flipping FL back to Biden, but I'm giving more benefit of the doubt in this state to Trump mainly because it is now his official state of residence. 

NV goes from Likely B to Leans B. NH goes from Likely B to Safe B. MT goes from Safe R to Likely R. 

In 2016, Trump was actually averaging a +5 polling lead on Clinton at this point! Biden is leading +7.4 in 2020. 

Trump cannot afford polling days like this. Biden needs to hope that this wasn't a fluke day for polling. 

 

Categories 39 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.4 (+0.4) Biden +0.9 Biden -0.6
AZ avg Biden 3.6 (-0.4) Biden -1.2 Biden +0.7
FL avg Biden 1.9 (+0.2) Biden -0.2 Biden -5.7
GA avg Trump 0.6 (0) Trump -0.8 Trump -0.7
IA avg Trump 0.6 (-0.5) Trump -0.7 Trump +0.3
MI Avg Biden 7.4 (0) Biden -0.1 Biden 0
MN avg Biden 9.5 (+0.4) Biden +0.7 Biden -1.6
MO avg Trump 6.3 (-0.5) Trump -0.5 Trump +0.8
MT avg Trump 6.6 (-2.1) Trump -1.5 Trump -4.1
NV avg Biden 2.5 (-3.1) Biden -2.9 Biden -4.2
NH Avg Biden 9.1 (+2.4) Biden +2.5 Biden +2.1
NC avg Biden 1.4 (+0.2) Biden +0.3 Biden -0.8
OH avg Trump 0.6 (-0.9) Trump -0.7 Trump +2.7
PA Avg Biden 4.7 (+0.2) Biden -0.1 Biden -2.1
SC avg Trump 5.8 (-1.1) Trump -1.3 Trump -0.8
TX avg Trump 1.2 (+0.4) Trump -0.1 Trump +1.2
WI Avg Biden 6.6 (0) Biden -0.2 Biden -0.5
Trump Approval 42.8 (+0.2) -0.6 2.6
Trump Disapproval 53.2 (0) 0.6 -2.5
Favorability Biden 16.2 (-0.2) Biden -1.1 Biden +5.5
Direction of the Country -37.2 (+0.8) 1.8 8.3
Generic Ballot Dem 5.8 (0) Dem +0.1 Dem -2.8
Betting Markets Biden 53.4 (+0.1) Biden +0.5 Biden -7.4
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton -5    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +12.4    

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The hoops you jump through to justify the worst authoritarian impulses of this man are truly astonishing and quite frankly it's why we don't see you as someone that isn't a Trump supporter. The i

And as usual, I'll answer by responding: It's not falsehoods used in your logic, it's the facts omitted from your logic.

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I should have made an option on the corruption question that states that both Trump and his administration are very corrupt but not the most corrupt in history (at least not yet proven to be). 

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Seems I'm not the only one noticing all the early Biden lids.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1309139081796911104?s=20

 

1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Today's was about 9:20am.

I don't know why you think any of this is newsworthy. It's newsworthy once you get people that aren't supporting Trump that bring this up. 

I don't care if Biden cancels all further campaign if he's keeping up the lead he has. If he wins with rarely campaigning, which seems likely the way things are going, it's just going to make Trump's defeat even more embarrassing. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

 

I don't know why you think any of this is newsworthy. It's newsworthy once you get people that aren't supporting Trump that bring this up. 

I don't care if Biden cancels all further campaign if he's keeping up the lead he has. If he wins with rarely campaigning, which seems likely the way things are going, it's just going to make Trump's defeat even more embarrassing. 

Who cares if Trump has an embarrassing defeat? This is TDS talking. What matters is if Biden wins. If not campaigning increases the chances of that, that's a problem for Dems.

Perhaps Trump's tweet about it is newsworthy? I don't care - it's an interesting facet of the Biden campaign right now, and could indicate various things.

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Perhaps Trump's tweet about it is newsworthy? I don't care - it's an interesting facet of the Biden campaign right now, and could indicate various things.

You've already brought it up several times. It really isn't that interesting except the first time you brought it up that it was routine. If Biden's Town Hall showed us anything, it definitely isn't health related aside from maybe avoiding getting Covid. He is old. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

You've already brought it up several times. It really isn't that interesting except the first time you brought it up that it was routine. If Biden's Town Hall showed us anything, it definitely isn't health related aside from maybe avoiding getting Covid. He is old. 

It's on-going, which is why I keep mentioning it. This thread is for daily updates on campaigns, no?

If you don't find it interesting, you can just ignore it.

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4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

If Biden's Town Hall showed us anything, it definitely isn't health related aside from maybe avoiding getting Covid. He is old. 

Perhaps. 'Because a candidate is able to stand for a couple hours, therefore he doesn't have health issues' is not really sound logic, though. Yet another early day lid has me wondering again what's going on. My best guess is his campaign is playing it safe, limiting public appearances because he's in the lead. But it might be something else - I don't know.

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Can you give the actual quotes and context for 3. and 4.?

It's all over the internet. I'm surprised you can find obscure comments about Biden's campaign lid but you can't find a major news item that has the entire media talking about it. GOP members are even distancing themselves from the comments. House Min Ldr McCarthy had to comment that there would be a peaceful transfer if Biden wins. 

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-voting-elections-voting-fraud-and-irregularities-8bb28627b03474a3a5ce2454ae3d1639

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/517976-trump-says-he-would-accept-supreme-court-election-ruling-after

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/517993-gop-lawmakers-distance-themselves-from-trump-comments-on-transfer-of-power

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-election-transfer-mccarthy/u-s-republican-mccarthy-very-peaceful-transition-of-power-after-presidential-election-idINKCN26F305

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

"Trump wants people to inject themselves with bleach!" was all over the internet, and obviously false. This is a place for (hopefully) careful analysis of these sorts of questions. I find it useful to have the actual quotes, including relevant context.

Your 4. says "Trump seems to want the election to be decided by the Supreme Court". Can you provide the quote where he says this? The relevant link you provided says "he would accept a hypothetical SC ruling." A bit different, no?

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Here is the exchange for 3. 

Reporter "Win, lose, or draw in this election, will you commit here, today, for a peaceful transferal of power after the election? (inaudible) There has been rioting in many cities across this country, red and - your so-called red and blue states. Will you commit to making sure that there is a peaceful transferal of power after the election?"

Trump "Well, we're going to have to see what happens. You know that I've been complaining very strongly about the ballots, and the ballots are a disaster."

Reporter "But people are rioting. Do you commit to a peaceful transferal of power?"

Trump "Get rid of the ballots are you'll have a very peaceful - there won't be a transfer, frankly, there'll be a continuation. The ballots are out of control, you know it, and you know who knows it better than anyone else? The Democrats know it better than anybody else."

It's not clear to me what the reporter is actually asking. He prefaces it with the possibility Trump will win, and he's referring to riots occurring (presumably not done at Trump's urging), and then asks about a peaceful transferal of power. If Trump wins, how can Trump make riots like those not happen? But if Trump wins, it's not a transferal of power. So the question doesn't make a lot of sense.

However, Trump's response is in line with how Trump responded to questions about not running 3rd party if he lost the primaries (he wouldn't commit) or accepting a loss in the general (he wouldn't commit). But because we have an unclear question, it's not clear what Trump is saying exactly.

 

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6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Here is the exchange for 3. 

Reporter "Win, lose, or draw in this election, will you commit here, today, for a peaceful transferal of power after the election? (inaudible) There has been rioting in many cities across this country, red and - your so-called red and blue states. Will you commit to making sure that there is a peaceful transferal of power after the election?"

Trump "Well, we're going to have to see what happens. You know that I've been complaining very strongly about the ballots, and the ballots are a disaster."

Reporter "But people are rioting. Do you commit to a peaceful transferal of power?"

Trump "Get rid of the ballots are you'll have a very peaceful - there won't be a transfer, frankly, there'll be a continuation. The ballots are out of control, you know it, and you know who knows it better than anyone else? The Democrats know it better than anybody else."

It's not clear to me what the reporter is actually asking. He prefaces it with the possibility Trump will win, and he's referring to riots occurring (presumably not done at Trump's urging), and then asks about a peaceful transferal of power. If Trump wins, how can Trump make riots like those not happen? But if Trump wins, it's not a transferal of power. So the question doesn't make a lot of sense.

However, Trump's response is in line with how Trump responded to questions about not running 3rd party if he lost the primaries (he wouldn't commit) or accepting a loss in the general (he wouldn't commit). But because we have an unclear question, it's not clear what Trump is saying exactly.

 

The hoops you jump through to justify the worst authoritarian impulses of this man are truly astonishing and quite frankly it's why we don't see you as someone that isn't a Trump supporter.

The impression you give is to be entirely on the Trump Train. If you can't criticize this with great clarity than I cannot trust your objectivty on that matter.

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1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

The hoops you jump through to justify the worst authoritarian impulses of this man are truly astonishing and quite frankly it's why we don't see you as someone that isn't a Trump supporter.

The impression you give is to be entirely on the Trump Train. If you can't criticize this with great clarity than I cannot trust your objectivty on that matter.

As usual, I'll respond by asking you to be specific. What did I say that was incorrect?

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7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

As usual, I'll respond by asking you to be specific. What did I say that was incorrect?

You're ignoring the obvious: what if Biden wins? 

I do agree that it's likely more bluster and whatnot, getting media attention on himself, than anything, but still, it is a bit worrying.

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7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

As usual, I'll respond by asking you to be specific. What did I say that was incorrect?

And as usual, I'll answer by responding: It's not falsehoods used in your logic, it's the facts omitted from your logic.

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I see absolutely no problem when the election is decided by the Supreme Court. On the contrary, this could calm down the atmosphere, as a decision by the highest court takes away the legitimacy of any protests from both camps. One could still criticize the ruling obviously, but there is absolutely no encouragement for further violence I believe.

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Since I voted Other:

To my mind, Trump and his administration have been very, very corrupt, but I don't know enough history to compare him to other presidencies (I seem to remember the teapot dome being a big thing in the 20s, and there was lots of corruption under Grant, but I don't know how they compare to modern history).

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

You're ignoring the obvious: what if Biden wins? 

I do agree that it's likely more bluster and whatnot, getting media attention on himself, than anything, but still, it is a bit worrying.

The question is what was actually being asked, and what Trump meant by his answer. It's not really clear to me. Sounds like a poorly formed question combined with a pivot to another issue + Trump's general reluctance to commit to anything.

But yes, could be worrisome. My guess is we'll never find out what Trump will do if he loses, but if he does, my guess is he'll aggressively pursue every legal path to victory he can (such as getting mail-in ballots thrown out).

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

The question is what was actually being asked, and what Trump meant by his answer. It's not really clear to me. Sounds like a poorly formed question combined with a pivot to another issue + Trump's general reluctance to commit to anything.

But yes, could be worrisome. My guess is we'll never find out what Trump will do if he loses, but if he does, my guess is he'll aggressively pursue every legal path to victory he can (such as getting mail-in ballots thrown out).

The question was relatively easy to understand...The aside about the rioting is a bit confusing, but the question itself is not.

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Jonathan Karl reformulated the question so it makes sense, and asked Press Secretary for clarification. "The President will accept the result of a free and fair election. But, I think that your question is more fitting to be asked of Democrats who have already been on the record that they won't accept the results in the election."

https://www.c-span.org/video/?476223-1/white-house-president-accept-results-free-fair-election&live=

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Looking at my forecast map. I could see Trump flipping AZ, NV, NE-2, and NC just the economy getting more normal and Trump's approval rising to 45% (his average high). However, that still gets him only 265 EVs, which is a loss. Can't see a path to victory for Trump unless something extraordinary happens between now and election day. Biden's support would have to totally collapse in WI and MI to make those even possibilities. Trump has a very outside chance of getting PA. 

As I said a few days ago, I'll be looking at FL and PA as determining the election. Trump has to win both. If Biden claims either he wins. That said, Trump never leads in polls for either state, although he gets about even in FL. I give FL to Trump just because it's his new home state and he seems to focus there more than anywhere, which might be one reason the state is even in play. If not, Biden might be +5 there. Meanwhile, Biden is campaigning as if PA (via Scranton) is his home state. 

 

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