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State of the Race: 40 Days Left


vcczar
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40 Day Poll  

22 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Do you favor strong government action to combat climate change?

    • Yes.
    • Only so long as my preferred party is handling.
      0
    • Only so long as the actions mostly come from state governments with little federal interference.
    • No, mostly because of federal intrusion or because of the monetary cost of combating it.
    • No, mostly because it is futile unless China and India are as committed as we are.
    • No, mostly because I think climate change is a hoax.
  3. 3. Let's say its election day, and 538, Crystal Ball, Cook, CNN, etc., all predict the following by the end of the night. In parentheses, are the current poll averages, most of which have Biden safely polling outside the margin of victory. Which predictions do you think are likely to be wrong?

    • Trump wins FL (Biden current holds slight lead)
    • Trump wins GA (Trump currently holds slight lead)
    • Trump wins OH (Trump currently holds slight lead)
    • Trump wins IA (Trump currently holds slight lead)
    • Trump wins MO (Trump currently holds lead outside margin of victory)
    • Trump wins ME-2 (Biden currently holds miniscule lead)
    • Trump wins TX (Trump currently holds slight lead)
    • Trump wins SC (Trump currently holds lead outside margin of victory)
    • Trump wins MT (Trump currently holds safe lead)
    • Biden wins NC (Biden currently holds slight lead)
    • Biden wins VA (Biden currently holds safe lead)
    • Biden wins PA (Biden currently holds lead outside margin of victory)
    • Biden wins NH (Biden currently holds lead outside margin of victory)
    • Biden wins MI (Biden current holds outside margin of victory and near-safe)
    • Biden wins WI (Biden currently holds lead outside margin of victory)
    • Biden wins MN (Biden currently holds safe lead)
    • Biden wins NE-2 (Biden currently holds slight lead)
    • Biden wins CO (Biden currently holds safe lead)
    • Biden wins NM (Biden currently holds safe lead)
    • Biden wins AZ (Biden currently holds lead outside margin of victory or right at the margin of victory line)
    • Biden wins NV (Biden currently holds lead outside margin of victory)
    • None of these predictions will be wrong.
      0
  4. 4. Do you support mail-in ballots during an election?

    • Yes, they've been part of an election for awhile. Even Trump admits to using them, even as he rhetorically opposes them.
    • Yes, but only because of the pandemic.
    • No, but mainly because my preferred party (GOP) will greatly increase their chances at victory if they can invalidate mail in votes.
      0
    • No, because I think they're less trustworthy than in-person ballots.
  5. 5. Do you think it is alright for an incumbent president that is running for reelection to prematurely call an election rigged against him?

    • Yes, a president should be able to say whatever they want, even if it means a portion of the population won't accept election results or if violence ensues.
    • No, a president should be a stabilizing, unifying leader, who is supposed to inspire trust in the electoral process and ensure a peaceful transfer of power if he or she loses.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Mixed day for both nominees. 

Biden is finally back to an average +7 lead on Trump. 

Trump really cut into Biden's AZ lead, but I already have AZ as leans Biden on the map even though it is polling likely Biden. 

Clinton was only +1 vs. Trump at this time in 2016. Biden is +7 vs Trump.

Forecast map is unchanged.

Categories 40 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.0 (+0.1) Biden +0.3 Biden -1.0
AZ avg Biden 4.0 (-0.5) Biden -0.3 Biden +1.1
FL avg Biden 1.7 (-0.3) Biden -0.4 Biden -5.9
GA avg Trump 0.6 (-0.1) Trump -0.8 Trump -0.7
IA avg Trump 1.1 (0) Trump -0.8 Trump +0.8
MI Avg Biden 7.4 (-0.1) Biden 0 Biden 0
MN avg Biden 9.1 (0) Biden +0.3 Biden -2.0
MO avg Trump 6.8 (-0.1) Trump 0 Trump +1.3
NV avg Biden 5.6 (+0.1) Biden +0.2 Biden -1.1
NH Avg Biden 6.7 (+0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.8
NC avg Biden 1.2 (0) Biden 0 Biden -1.0
OH avg Trump 1.5 (0) Trump +0.2 Biden +3.6
PA Avg Biden 4.5 (0) Biden -0.3 Biden -2.3
SC avg Trump 6.9 (0) Trump -0.2 Trump -0.3
TX avg Trump 0.8 (0) Trump -0.5 Trump +0.8
WI Avg Biden 6.6 (+0.2) Biden -0.2 Biden -0.5
Trump Approval 42.6 (+0.1) -0.4 2.4
Trump Disapproval 53.2 (+0.1) 0.3 -2.5
Favorability Biden 16.4 (-0.4) Biden -0.9 Biden +4.7
Direction of the Country -38 (+1.1) 1 7.5
Generic Ballot Dem 5.8 (-0.3) Dem +0.1 Dem -2.8
Betting Markets Biden 53.3 (-1.0) Biden +1.2 Biden -7.4
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +1    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +6    

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10 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I’m kind of curious with @Conservative Elector 2 response to predictions being wrong. It almost seems like you think most of the states will be won by the other nominee. I think you’re also predicting a Biden win with these flips.

Yeah, another classic example of voting for the wrong thing. My bad.

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Just now, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Yeah, another classic example of voting for the wrong thing. My bad.

Can we change our votes with the new update?

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44 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Can we change our votes with the new update?

What new update? I'm not sure if one can change their votes in a poll. Would be great if that was an option.

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

What new update? I'm not sure if one can change their votes in a poll. Would be great if that was an option.

I was referring to the forum update.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Don't know. Probably not.

Ok. It would be a cool option though.

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15 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, I know. But I don't control that in any direct way. It's another company that makes the forum software.

Interesting. I wasn't sure if it's you or as said another company.

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