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And the Last Trump Shall Sound


Wiw
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So I've read a little bit of Harry Turtledove's newest work. In it, not only does Trump win a second term, but Scotland goes independent, a second COVID pandemic kills Trump, Pence becomes supreme dictator, and California is driven to seceding from the Union. Frankly, I believe it'll happen. Though to be honest, all that is the best-case scenario, as far as I'm concerned. What do you reckon are the odds of it playing out in such a fashion?

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33 minutes ago, Wiw said:

So I've read a little bit of Harry Turtledove's newest work. In it, not only does Trump win a second term, but Scotland goes independent, a second COVID pandemic kills Trump, Pence becomes supreme dictator, and California is driven to seceding from the Union. Frankly, I believe it'll happen. Though to be honest, all that is the best-case scenario, as far as I'm concerned. What do you reckon are the odds of it playing out in such a fashion?

The first line is completely plausible, I'd say likely.

The second line is completely implausible.

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3 minutes ago, Mark_W said:

The first line is completely plausible, I'd say likely.

The second line is completely implausible.

Agreed.  I don't know enough about Scotland to say whether they would go independent, though Trump winning is at least a 50/50 shot.

Everything after "Scotland goes independent" is ridiculous.  Turtledove is a fantasy/sci-fi author.  Not a prophet.

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8 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Agreed.  I don't know enough about Scotland to say whether they would go independent, though Trump winning is at least a 50/50 shot.

Everything after "Scotland goes independent" is ridiculous.  Turtledove is a fantasy/sci-fi author.  Not a prophet.

If you take 'a second COVID pandemic', to mean a second wave, then I'd cut it just before they declare it kills Trump. Because that's happening as we speak.

If I was from Scotland I'd be voting for independence. The vote last time was fairly close, and since then in our infinite wisdom south of the border we've taken them out of the European Union and given Boris Johnson a landslide majority to work with in parliament. Fears around EU membership have gone, and there's economic fears in or out now. The SNP performance in Scotland makes a vote quite likely, and I'd imagine the next one will definitely be closer than the last.

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14 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Scottish independence is coming. Next four years? Maybe not. But within a decade I would say.

There'll be a second referendum in that time. I suspect it'll be quite tight though, and if it is a second vote to remain part of the UK then that'll surely knock it off the agenda for a while?

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Sounds like Scotland might be happier on its own. No one thinks it's a big deal that, say, NZ is independent from Australia. Or Iceland is independent from Norway. But if it's a *new* polity emerging? Whoa, whoa, whoa!

Similarly, I think Cali citizens could be quite happy independent from the rest of the U.S. Each state in the U.S. could easily become its own nation state, with more autonomy and responsiveness to its citizens, IMHO.

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2 hours ago, Wiw said:

So I've read a little bit of Harry Turtledove's newest work. In it, not only does Trump win a second term, but Scotland goes independent, a second COVID pandemic kills Trump, Pence becomes supreme dictator, and California is driven to seceding from the Union. Frankly, I believe it'll happen. Though to be honest, all that is the best-case scenario, as far as I'm concerned. What do you reckon are the odds of it playing out in such a fashion?

This is the same author who wrote a series of novels where the Confederacy wins the U.S. Civil War, SOMEHOW doesn't become an international pariah because of the growingly globally unpopular practice of slavery, is able to sell it's cotton abroad with the slave labour taint to it's brand enough to be prosperous (despite the historical fact that they would have actually been economically doomed even if they had maintained independence because the Khedive of Egypt of opportunistically selling cotton with the slave labour stain abroad at higher bulk and more competitive prices near the end of the Civil War), and this Confederacy proceeded to defeat the U.S. again in two of the next three wars between them afterward in his series. Turtledove also wrote even more blatantly science-fiction stuff, like reptilians aliens invading Earth during WW2, forcing an alliance of convenience between the "Big Five," belligerent powers of the war (the British Empire, the U.S. the USSR, Germany, and Japan - what poor timing to make a conventional, if high-tech, invasion of Earth at a time of it's greatest military readiness and activity and when it had it's highest percentage of it's population under arms in it's recorded history), or South African pro-Apartheid extremists traveling back in time to give Robert E. Lee bucketloads of AK-47's (despite South African Apartheid-era never using that model of firearm and associating it strongly with Black African Marxist and Nationalist Revolutionaries) so he can, you can guessed, win the U.S. Civil War. This is the kind of garbage Turtledove writes, with a disturbing and perceptive authorial bias.

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22 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Similarly, I think Cali citizens could be quite happy independent from the rest of the U.S. Each state in the U.S. could easily become its own nation state, with more autonomy and responsiveness to its citizens, IMHO.

Not even a little bit true.  From inception, we were created to be a "United" States.  No state was built to be on its own, and free travel/trade between the states is vital to each state's success.  Various Texans occasionally declare that Texas will break free and nobody even cares because it's too ridiculous to even have the discussion about what that would even look like.  If California were to break free, what's to stop North Korea or China from invading?  Who is going to stop them?  The California National Guard?  The one that trains one weekend a month, and is supplied by...let me check my notes...the US military?  What currency will they use?  Where will they get emergency relief from, considering the endless drought, the fires, the earthquakes.  The Supreme Court ruled in 1869 that no state may secede from the Union, so you would need a Constitutional amendment to do so -- requiring 2/3 of the House, 2/3 of the Senate, AND 2/3 of state legislatures to approve. And given that Democrats are never going to throw away the 55 electoral votes and 2 Senate Seats, to say nothing of all the Representatives in the House... It is never, ever ever ever ever ever ever going to happen.  It is difficult to imagine a more stupid idea, other than perhaps Nebraska seceding instead and finding themselves landlocked.  

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Just now, Actinguy said:

free travel/trade between the states is vital to each state's success

Cali can become its own country and still have free travel and trade between the other states.

Who stops China from invading Canada? About the same population as California, but somehow invasion free.

Whether independence will happen or not is different from whether Cali would be happy as an independent country.

There are plenty of landlocked countries, ~49. Switzerland has been really stupid to keep its independence, hasn't it, being a landlocked country and all ...

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Cali can become its own country and still have free travel and trade between the other states.

Who stops China from invading Canada? About the same population as California, but somehow invasion free.

Whether independence will happen or not is different from whether Cali would be happy as an independent country.

There are plenty of landlocked countries, ~49. Switzerland has been really stupid to keep its independence, hasn't it, being a landlocked country and all ...

A united Candian military does.  Also, being part of the United Nations -- which California can not join without US consent.  

By "landlocked", I meant surrounded by a single nation that it just pissed off.  "Enclaved" might have been a more accurate description, of which I am only aware of Lesotho setting the precedent.  Ah, Lesotho.  Everybody greatly admires Lesotho's global standing and wishes to achieve their levels of national greatness.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

A united Candian military does.  Also, being part of the United Nations -- which California can not join without US consent.  

By "landlocked", I meant surrounded by a single nation that it just pissed off.  "Enclaved" might have been a more accurate description, of which I am only aware of Lesotho setting the precedent.  Ah, Lesotho.  Everybody greatly admires Lesotho's global standing and wishes to achieve their levels of national greatness.

You think everyone would be unhappy to see Nebraska go? I didn't say it would be a bitter divorce ...

Why do you think Cali couldn't form its own military?

Stupid Czech Republic! Didn't stay as part of Czechoslovakia!

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8 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

A united Candian military does.  Also, being part of the United Nations -- which California can not join without US consent. 
 

Of course, the U.S. might find itself pragmatically and in it's own interests having it's hand forced to defend California anyways from a Chinese invasion to stop China from having a foothold and beachhead literally right on it's own doorstep...

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

You think everyone would be unhappy to see Nebraska go? I didn't say it would be a bitter divorce ...

Why do you think Cali couldn't form its own military?

Stupid Czech Republic! Didn't stay as part of Czechoslovakia!

I'm sure California could form its own military.  But if it wants one that can defend itself, it is going to go billions upon billions of dollars.  With no federal funding, obviously, for literally anything.  

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2 minutes ago, Patine said:

Of course, the U.S. might find itself pragmatically and in it's own interests having it's hand forced to defend California anyways from a Chinese invasion to stop China from having a foothold and beachhead literally right on it's own doorstep...

Sure, and then we'd just reclaim it as our own because now it's a weak point in our national defense.  Leading back to why it's a stupid idea to begin with.

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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Stupid Czech Republic! Didn't stay as part of Czechoslovakia!

That wasn't quite a secession. The country of Czechoslovakia spit in two - the Czech Republic and Slovakia - so it was a different matter entirely. Also, it was probably the only breakup of an integral sovereign nation (thus not including certain decolonization events like the Commonwealth Realms, the now-independent former Dutch Caribbean colonies, and the Philippines) that was not only peaceful, but without any bitterness, acrimony, ill-feeling, or lingering serious disputes.

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It’s a futile discussion because there’s nowhere near enough of an appetite for it to happen. The likelihood of it happening in our lifetimes must be close to zero.

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1 minute ago, Mark_W said:

It’s a futile discussion because there’s nowhere near enough of an appetite for it to happen. The likelihood of it happening in our lifetimes must be close to zero.

I'm not suggesting it will happen. I'm saying Cali could very well be happier independent. These things all start with an idea ...

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Sounds like Scotland might be happier on its own. No one thinks it's a big deal that, say, NZ is independent from Australia. Or Iceland is independent from Norway. But if it's a *new* polity emerging? Whoa, whoa, whoa!

Similarly, I think Cali citizens could be quite happy independent from the rest of the U.S. Each state in the U.S. could easily become its own nation state, with more autonomy and responsiveness to its citizens, IMHO.

 

32 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Not even a little bit true.  From inception, we were created to be a "United" States.  No state was built to be on its own, and free travel/trade between the states is vital to each state's success.  Various Texans occasionally declare that Texas will break free and nobody even cares because it's too ridiculous to even have the discussion about what that would even look like.  If California were to break free, what's to stop North Korea or China from invading?  Who is going to stop them?  The California National Guard?  The one that trains one weekend a month, and is supplied by...let me check my notes...the US military?  What currency will they use?  Where will they get emergency relief from, considering the endless drought, the fires, the earthquakes.  The Supreme Court ruled in 1869 that no state may secede from the Union, so you would need a Constitutional amendment to do so -- requiring 2/3 of the House, 2/3 of the Senate, AND 2/3 of state legislatures to approve. And given that Democrats are never going to throw away the 55 electoral votes and 2 Senate Seats, to say nothing of all the Representatives in the House... It is never, ever ever ever ever ever ever going to happen.  It is difficult to imagine a more stupid idea, other than perhaps Nebraska seceding instead and finding themselves landlocked.  

Yeah, this is something that someone that doesn't live in the US would say. Maybe it's something that seems plausible with a Canadian province, but I'm not from there and don't know the culture, economics, laws, and etc. of Canada, so I won't attempt to make a suggestion or comment for or against a province's independence.

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13 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

That Cali could be happier independent? I'm not saying it's plausible that it would happen, but one can imagine ...

Well sure, but one can imagine anything. Oslo might be really happy independent. Belarus & Japan might be really happy in a union.

I'm just not sure what purpose the discussion serves if there's no chance of it happening?

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2 minutes ago, Mark_W said:

Well sure, but one can imagine anything. Oslo might be really happy independent. Belarus & Japan might be really happy in a union.

I'm just not sure what purpose the discussion serves if there's no chance of it happening?

I think, frankly, California becoming independent, statistically and plausibly speaking, if not in all likelihood is IMMENSELY more probably and FAR, FAR less-outright obtuse and nonsensical of possibility than Belarus and Japan forming a political union. As I like to say, periodically, perspective and proportion please!

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