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State of the Race: 45 Days Left


45 Day Poll  

27 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Do you approve of Trump's banning and or restricting access to TikTok and WeChat?



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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

No big movements. Trump shifted slightly in the national polls. Biden shifted slightly better in the state polls. 

No map changes. However, ME-2 is very close to flipping to Biden. He has led in the last two polls there. NE-2 is close to flipping to Trump, however. 

Categories 45 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 6.5 (-0.2) Biden -1.0 Biden -1.5
AZ avg Biden 4.8 (+0.5) Biden -0.5 Biden +1.9
FL avg Biden 2.1 (0) Biden -0.6 Biden -5.5
GA avg Trump 1.4 (0) Trump -0.1 Trump +0.1
IA avg Trump 1.9 (0) Trump +0.3 Trump +1.6
MI Avg Biden 7.5 (+0.1) Biden -0.1 Biden +0.1
MN avg Biden 8.8 (0) Biden +2.4 Biden -2.3
MO avg Trump 6.8 (0) Trump +0.3 Trump +1.3
NV avg Biden 5.4 (0) Biden -1.0 Biden -1.3
NH Avg Biden 6.6 (0) Biden -1.6 Biden -0.9
NC avg Biden 1.1 (-0.1) Biden -0.3 Biden -1.1
OH avg Trump 1.3 (0) Trump +0.4 Trump +3.4
PA Avg Biden 4.8 (0) Biden -0.3 Biden -2.0
SC avg Trump 7.1 (0) Trump +0.4 Trump +0.5
TX avg Trump 1.3 (0) Trump +0.5 Trump +1.3
WI Avg Biden 6.8 (0) Biden -0.1 Biden -0.3
Trump Approval 43.4 (+0.4) 0.9 3.2
Trump Disapproval 52.6 (-0.3) -0.3 -3.1
Favorability Biden 17.3 (0) Biden +1.5 Biden +5.4
Direction of the Country -39 (0) -2.8 6.5
Generic Ballot Dem 5.7 (0) Dem -0.3 Dem -2.9
Betting Markets Biden 52.9 (+0.8) Biden -0.1 Biden -7.8
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +2    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +4.5    

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It seems this race's dynamics can be simplified to ground vs. air.

Trump's strategy is massive ground game (large rallies, er, 'protests', millions of volunteers knocking on doors, significant local, physical presence with signs, car parades, and so on) while Biden's is massive air game (friendly media and social media, major focus on virtual events and internet networking).

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55 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

It seems this race's dynamics can be simplified to ground vs. air.

Trump's strategy is massive ground game (large rallies, er, 'protests', millions of volunteers knocking on doors, significant local, physical presence with signs, car parades, and so on) while Biden's is massive air game (friendly media and social media, major focus on virtual events and internet networking).

The problem with rallies is that if you are willing to attend, you’re probably already voting for the guy.  You’re not actually changing anyone’s mind there.

Also, there’s a global pandemic happening.  Not sure if you heard.  ;c)

As for volunteers knocking on doors, is that true?  I haven’t really heard or seen anything to suggest that.  I can tell you in swing state Ohio, I haven’t seen any.

In 2016, I had a Clinton supporter knock the evening before Election Day.  No Trump supporters knocked, though we did have many Trump signs in our neighborhood.

This year, as I’ve mentioned previously, I’m seeing almost zero signs.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Anyone else having problems with the graphics on the forum (a little rectangle appearing where various graphics should be)?

 

1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Would it be fair to say Biden's ground game is basically 0 in every state in terms of President Infinity game dynamics?

 

58 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

It seems this race's dynamics can be simplified to ground vs. air.

Trump's strategy is massive ground game (large rallies, er, 'protests', millions of volunteers knocking on doors, significant local, physical presence with signs, car parades, and so on) while Biden's is massive air game (friendly media and social media, major focus on virtual events and internet networking).

No issues on graphics for me. 
 

you might be right about the campaign differences. 

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Just now, Actinguy said:

The problem with rallies is that if you are willing to attend, you’re probably already voting for the guy.  You’re not actually changing anyone’s mind there.

Also, there’s a global pandemic happening.  Not sure if you heard.  ;c)

As for volunteers knocking on doors, is that true?  I haven’t really heard or seen anything to suggest that.  I can tell you in swing state Ohio, I haven’t seen any.

In 2016, I had a Clinton supporter knock the evening before Election Day.  No Trump supporters knocked, though we did have many Trump signs in our neighborhood.

This year, as I’ve mentioned previously, I’m seeing almost zero signs.

Yes, these sorts of rallies are largely to energize one's own base. You'll probably have some curious undecideds as well, but my guess is that's a decided minority.

Trump campaign claims 12M potential voters being contacted by door knocking since June ( https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/trump-campaign-reaches-100m-voters-in-campaign-milestone/ ). Biden campaign says 0 (they're not doing it at all).

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Would it be fair to say Biden's ground game is basically 0 in every state in terms of President Infinity game dynamics?

Well, there's definitely been a "Biden not on the Campaign Trail" in the headlines, although Biden has visited several states, most recently, IIRC, Florida.

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42 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Interesting. So big question is have pollsters improved.

In other words has the fog of war button been turned off. ;)

My understanding is that  one issue in 2016 was a failure to weight by education, which many pollsters now do, so hopefully they've improved.

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17 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Lid was called on Biden's public appearances today at 8:35 am. Only 43 days left.

What are you referring to?

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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Biden's campaign called a lid (i.e., done for public appearances) for the day at 8:35am.

And?

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37 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Exactly.

I guess I’m lost on what you are trying to say with your comment. 

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44 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Biden seems to be frequently calling a 'lid' early in the day, at a time when it should be go, Go, GO!

I’d assume today would have something to do with RBG dying last night. 

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