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State of the Race: 46 Days Left


46 Day Poll  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Black Lives Matter or Blue Lives Matter?

    • Black Lives Matter all the way! Racism+abuse is largely out of control among the police force and legislators are consistently dragging their feet to resolve this!
    • Blue Lives Matter all the way! The police force is largely fine and the protests and efforts to defund police are bigger issues than a few bad cops.
    • Why is it so hard to support both? I support the protest for change and reform, acknowledge that some cops should be fired, but I think good cops should get more support and encouragement for doing their jobs. Defunding is a bad idea.
    • Other
  3. 3. Who would make the best Supreme Court Justice of the politicians mentioned below?

  4. 4. Who would you rather be trapped on a deserted island with for a month?

  5. 5. I would refuse to vote for a nominee that was the following even if their platform was ideally aligned with my ideology and I didn't like their opponent.

    • A mishapen, clubfooted dwarf with a cleft palate
    • A 7'8" pockmarked 600 lbs trans man with tourette syndrome
    • A muslim
    • A fundamentalist Christian that things the end of days is coming soon and that he's been divinely appointed to lead the country against am unverified communist atheist trans army that is set to invade America from Iran.
    • An atheist
      0
    • A registered sex offender
    • A woman
      0
    • A person that has never earned more than $30,000 and comes from generations of poor people.
      0
    • A man with 100 billion dollars, who has lived their entire life in luxury.
    • A polygamous Mormon
    • A human that is partially cyborg
    • A gay man
      0
    • A lesbian
      0
    • A bisexual person
      0
    • An open asexual with a limp handshake
    • Patine
    • Someone with cerebral palsy
    • Someone in a wheelchair
      0
    • Someone who is very open about being bipolar
    • Someone who is open about being a sociopath and narcissist
    • Someone that has personally insulted you and your family to your face and openly hates you for no reason.
    • Someone you can't identify with because their background, hobbies, ideas of fun and what is boring are completely different than yours.
      0
    • Consistently says things that make them appear to be racist, misogynist, or bigoted.
    • Routinely makes jokes about wanting to serve extra terms
    • I would not support any of these even if they ran on an ideal platform.
      0


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vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75

As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Trump keeps making gains in the national polls. If this keeps up, then Biden should be worried. 

State polls didn't shift as much. Notable cut to Biden's lead in AZ, while Biden had some good polls in NC. 

Strangely, Biden's favorability is now at an all-time high despite gains by Trump. 

AZ goes from Likely D to Leans D. 

Categories 46 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 6.7 (-0.2) Biden -0.8 Biden -1.3
AZ avg Biden 4.3 (-0.7) Biden -1.0 Biden +1.4
FL avg Biden 2.1 (-0.2) Biden -0.6 Biden -5.5
GA avg Trump 1.4 (0) Trump -0.1 Trump +0.1
IA avg Trump 1.9 (0) Trump +0.3 Trump +1.6
MI Avg Biden 7.4 (-0.1) Biden -0.2 Biden 0
MN avg Biden 8.8 (-0.1) Biden +2.6 Biden -2.3
MO avg Trump 6.8 (0) Trump +0.3 Trump +1.3
NV avg Biden 5.4 (-0.1) Biden -1.0 Biden -1.3
NH Avg Biden 6.6 (0) Biden -1.6 Biden -0.9
NC avg Biden 1.2 (+0.2) Biden -0.2 Biden -1.0
OH avg Trump 1.3 (+0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump +3.4
PA Avg Biden 4.8 (0) Biden -0.3 Biden -2.0
SC avg Trump 7.1 (+0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump +0.5
TX avg Trump 1.3 (+0.1) Trump +0.5 Trump +1.3
WI Avg Biden 6.8 (0) Biden -0.1 Biden -0.3
Trump Approval 43.0 (-0.1) 0.5 2.8
Trump Disapproval 52.9 (+0.1) 0 -2.8
Favorability Biden 17.3 (+2.1) Biden +1.5 Biden +5.6
Direction of the Country -39 (-1.2) -2.8 6.5
Generic Ballot Dem 5.7 (0) Dem -0.3 Dem -1.9
Betting Markets Biden 52.1 (+1.0) Biden -0.9 Biden -8.6
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +3    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +3.7    

Vo9ER.png

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I support Black Lives Matter and the police. I don't, however, support the hashtab "Blue Lives Matter" because there is no such thing as a "Blue Life". There is no equivalency between being a police officer and being a black person.

 

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1 minute ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

Since when was Merrick Garland a politician? I remember him being on the DC circuit court but not an elected Congressional member.

I call anyone that hold an office connected to government as a politician, since everything is political.

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Why did Harris for example not mention the ambush on the two L.A. deputies on Twitter? Does she plan a visit to them? It's even her state, so she should be outraged, but that's what I get from her reaction... why can't the media and many Democrats acknowledge this is the result of the toxic environment created by the Defund-the-Police-Movement which is not denounced by most Democrats? Questions over questions.

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2 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Why did Harris for example not mention the ambush on the two L.A. deputies on Twitter? Does she plan a visit to them? It's even her state, so she should be outraged, but that's what I get from her reaction... why can't the media and many Democrats acknowledge this is the result of the toxic environment created by the Defund-the-Police-Movement which is not denounced by most Democrats? Questions over questions.

I agree, this is a moment where Harris could have shown some real leadership on uniting both the calls to protect police and deliver serious systemic reform. If we're going to beat Trump we need to champion both.

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1 minute ago, pilight said:

The toxic environment was caused by unaccountable, trigger happy cops.  Harris was part of the system that created that environment.

Of course, and yet these two men did not deserve the terrible crime befallen them. Surely it's not controversial to hope the criminal that nearly deprived two families of their fathers would be brought to swift justice and that Californian leadership rally around the community here.

Harris absolutely would have done more as DA, but she was very pro-reform for her time when she held office. The goal posts have moved a lot since then, and that's good, btu she was one of the fairest and more reform-minded in the country when she served.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75

As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Trump keeps making gains in the national polls. If this keeps up, then Biden should be worried. 

State polls didn't shift as much. Notable cut to Biden's lead in AZ, while Biden had some good polls in NC. 

Strangely, Biden's favorability is now at an all-time high despite gains by Trump. 

AZ goes from Likely D to Leans D. 

 

Categories 46 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 6.7 (-0.2) Biden -0.8 Biden -1.3
AZ avg Biden 4.3 (-0.7) Biden -1.0 Biden +1.4
FL avg Biden 2.1 (-0.2) Biden -0.6 Biden -5.5
GA avg Trump 1.4 (0) Trump -0.1 Trump +0.1
IA avg Trump 1.9 (0) Trump +0.3 Trump +1.6
MI Avg Biden 7.4 (-0.1) Biden -0.2 Biden 0
MN avg Biden 8.8 (-0.1) Biden +2.6 Biden -2.3
MO avg Trump 6.8 (0) Trump +0.3 Trump +1.3
NV avg Biden 5.4 (-0.1) Biden -1.0 Biden -1.3
NH Avg Biden 6.6 (0) Biden -1.6 Biden -0.9
NC avg Biden 1.2 (+0.2) Biden -0.2 Biden -1.0
OH avg Trump 1.3 (+0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump +3.4
PA Avg Biden 4.8 (0) Biden -0.3 Biden -2.0
SC avg Trump 7.1 (+0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump +0.5
TX avg Trump 1.3 (+0.1) Trump +0.5 Trump +1.3
WI Avg Biden 6.8 (0) Biden -0.1 Biden -0.3
Trump Approval 43.0 (-0.1) 0.5 2.8
Trump Disapproval 52.9 (+0.1) 0 -2.8
Favorability Biden 17.3 (+2.1) Biden +1.5 Biden +5.6
Direction of the Country -39 (-1.2) -2.8 6.5
Generic Ballot Dem 5.7 (0) Dem -0.3 Dem -1.9
Betting Markets Biden 52.1 (+1.0) Biden -0.9 Biden -8.6
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +3    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +3.7    

Vo9ER.png

I could almost answer this one, @vcczar, except #3, because I would insist on a judge with a strong record of integrity and lack of bias in the courtroom, not for the partisan and ideological spoils and patronage appointments for Federal Judges I viciously excoriate as sapping all ethics and credibility from the American Federal Judicial Branch.

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

Of course, and yet these two men did not deserve the terrible crime befallen them. Surely it's not controversial to hope the criminal that nearly deprived two families of their fathers would be brought to swift justice and that Californian leadership rally around the community here.

Harris absolutely would have done more as DA, but she was very pro-reform for her time when she held office. The goal posts have moved a lot since then, and that's good, btu she was one of the fairest and more reform-minded in the country when she served.

Whaaat? She was awful on things like drug reform and wanted to put parents in jail for kids who skipped school. Theres a reason why she dropped out after Iowa.

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16 minutes ago, billay said:

Whaaat? She was awful on things like drug reform and wanted to put parents in jail for kids who skipped school. Theres a reason why she dropped out after Iowa.

Correct, and all of her contemporaries were worse is the point. She was among the first DAs to take us from “Tough on Crime” to “Smart on Crime” rhetoric and policies. If you examine the history of criminal justice in this country she was good at the time, but looking back on it we of course could have wanted a great deal more. Either way leagues ahead of Trump and his administrations policies.

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I can not BELIEVE that seven of you would rather be stuck on a deserted island with Donald Trump.  WHO in the WORLD would possibly want that.  Like, even if you're wearing a MAGA hat and are celebrating his supreme court picks or whatever, that's still entirely different from being stuck right next to the man every waking moment for a MONTH.  

You think he's going to help you catch food and get water and build a shelter or an SOS sign?  Nope.  He'll yell at you while you do all the work, then tell you you did a bad job, and when the rescue boat finally comes he'll take all the credit for keeping you alive.

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6 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I can not BELIEVE that seven of you would rather be stuck on a deserted island with Donald Trump.  WHO in the WORLD would possibly want that.  Like, even if you're wearing a MAGA hat and are celebrating his supreme court picks or whatever, that's still entirely different from being stuck right next to the man every waking moment for a MONTH.  

You think he's going to help you catch food and get water and build a shelter or an SOS sign?  Nope.  He'll yell at you while you do all the work, then tell you you did a bad job, and when the rescue boat finally comes he'll take all the credit for keeping you alive.

Exactly. Regardless of who I support Biden is more relatable, kinder, and someone I could be friends with.  The only argument I could see them making is that he's more "entertaining" but that's about it.

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18 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I can not BELIEVE that seven of you would rather be stuck on a deserted island with Donald Trump.  WHO in the WORLD would possibly want that.  Like, even if you're wearing a MAGA hat and are celebrating his supreme court picks or whatever, that's still entirely different from being stuck right next to the man every waking moment for a MONTH. 

 

13 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Exactly. Regardless of who I support Biden is more relatable, kinder, and someone I could be friends with.  The only argument I could see them making is that he's more "entertaining" but that's about it.

Actually, that's who I'd choose. He'd be amusing to listen to rant for a week or so, and then I'd tie him up in his sleep and roast him for a big luau when the seagulls and fish got firesome to eat (Trump would make a MUCH better feast than skin-and-bones Biden). :P

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2 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

I agree, this is a moment where Harris could have shown some real leadership on uniting both the calls to protect police and deliver serious systemic reform. If we're going to beat Trump we need to champion both.

Yeah, that's true. Harris' performance here is very bad, but Biden's not much better to be honest. Did he go there or did he acknowledge it's on the Defund movement to create such an environment in which ALL policemen are viewed as the bad guys? I doubt it.

That's yet again another reason why I don't believe Biden's the savior... I'd rather support a third party than legitimizing a Biden-Harris ticket which is bad at core values and not trustworthy at all. For me it's not enough to be the anti-Trump bulk. It's about the whole platform and certainly they won't appoint Mike Lee or Ted Cruz to the Supreme Court.

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31 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I can not BELIEVE that seven of you would rather be stuck on a deserted island with Donald Trump.  WHO in the WORLD would possibly want that.  Like, even if you're wearing a MAGA hat and are celebrating his supreme court picks or whatever, that's still entirely different from being stuck right next to the man every waking moment for a MONTH.  

You think he's going to help you catch food and get water and build a shelter or an SOS sign?  Nope.  He'll yell at you while you do all the work, then tell you you did a bad job, and when the rescue boat finally comes he'll take all the credit for keeping you alive.

I strongly considered picking him, because him being on a desert Island would have meant the rest of the world didn't have to deal with him.

 

Then I decided I'm not that much of a saint.

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10 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Yeah, that's true. Harris' performance here is very bad, but Biden's not much better to be honest. Did he go there or did he acknowledge it's on the Defund movement to create such an environment in which ALL policemen are viewed as the bad guys? I doubt it.

That's yet again another reason why I don't believe Biden's the savior... I'd rather support a third party than legitimizing a Biden-Harris ticket which is bad at core values and not trustworthy at all. For me it's not enough to be the anti-Trump bulk. It's about the whole platform and certainly they won't appoint Mike Lee or Ted Cruz to the Supreme Court.

Well, since both major parties have a long history and bad track record of law enforcement policy - the American crime rate and please brutality and abuse rate, regardless of which party is governing - shows this issue isn't about which party handles the issue better and has better ideas, but that both parties have failed miserably on, are criminally negligent for countless counts of murders and various injustice (but no elected officials are facing their rightful criminal consequences for), and that it's time for ideas and policies that are not on the platforms or agendas of either major parties, and that neither ever really supports. Neither major party can be trusted here. And as for Supreme Court Justices, I've made clear that justices chosen for partisan and ideological beliefs is a malfeasance of nomination, and miscarriage and betrayal of the entire Federal Justice system and of the nation and Constitution as a whole, and pretty much makes EVERY SINGLE Supreme Court ruling suspect for being tainted by undue bias.

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I'd be concerned about Biden randomly walking off somewhere because of his dementia if on a deserted island with him, and that it would turn into a month-long unpaid babysitting gig. Jill Biden might have the patience for that, but not me. I'd also be concerned that we'd run out of whatever medications or drugs he's on.

On the one hand, most anecdotes of Trump before he ran for office was that he was personally charming. On the other, he is twice divorced. His kids seem to love him, though. But he seems pretty used to being the boss, so might try to order you around. If you were a lib, you would probably keep saying 'You're not my President!' and move to the other end of the island.

Joe is in better physical shape than Trump though, and on a deserted island, that's a factor.

Having said that, no one is going to read a book you write about a month spent on a deserted island with Biden. But with Trump, you can make up all sorts of nonsense and put it in the book, get a 7-figure book deal, and then go on a tour where the lib media will lap it up.

So Trump.

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