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State of the Race: 48 Days Left


48 Day Poll  

24 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Close Trump ally Roger Stone suggested that Trump declare martial law if he loses the election. Which of the following would you approve of a president (Trump or otherwise) doing in a lost election bid?

    • Conceding an election.
    • Refusing to concede a close election that is in recount territory.
    • Refusing to concede an election that is outside recount territory.
    • Declaring election results fake or illegitimate with zero to minimal evidence.
      0
    • Declaring election results fake or illegitimate when there is significant evidence and even some bipartisan concern.
    • Declaring martial law
      0
    • Refusing to leave the White House
      0
    • Using whatever powers, illegal or not, to stay in power by suspending the Constitution.
      0
    • Calling on supporters to not recognize the results and to take to the streets to prevent the opponent from holding office.
      0
    • Soiling the oval office out of spite by urinating on the floor and smearing feces on the curtains, etc.
    • Signing several executive orders during the lame duck period to stifle or otherwise attempt to make the new president fail in office.
    • None of the above is permissible unless it is done by a politician I support.
    • None of the above is permissible by a president.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Good day for Trump. He has a shot if he keeps this up. He had two good polls for two necessary states: FL and NC. He needs to expand his range in other states however. 

The only good news for Biden is that he's still polling way better than Clinton, who was losing to Trump at this time nationally. Biden is polling beyond 5pts versus Trump, which most pollsters believe means will also translate to an EC victory. 

The map now has NC for Trump, which decreases Biden's forecasted victory to 290 EVs. The rest of the week will show if Trump's slight gains are not a fluke. 

Categories 48 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.0 (-0.1) Biden -0.8 Biden -1.0
AZ avg Biden 5.0 (-0.1) Biden -0.2 Biden +2.1
FL avg Biden 2.2 (-0.4) Biden -0.4 Biden -5.4
GA avg Trump 1.7 (0) Trump +0.1 Trump +0.4
IA avg Trump 1.9 (+0.1) Trump +0.6 Trump +1.6
MI Avg Biden 7.5 (0) Biden 0 Biden +0.1
MN avg Biden 7.6 (-0.1) Biden +1.4 Biden -3.5
MO avg Trump 6.7 (+0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump +1.2
NV avg Biden 5.7 (0) Biden -1.0 Biden -1.0
NH Avg Biden 6.7 (0) Biden -1.8 Biden -0.8
NC avg Biden 0.8 (-0.5) Biden -1.0 Biden -1.4
OH avg Trump 1.2 (+0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump +3.3
PA Avg Biden 4.9 (0) Biden -0.2 Biden -1.9
SC avg Trump 7.0 (+0.1) Trump +0.3 Trump +0.4
TX avg Trump 1.1 (+0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump +1.1
WI Avg Biden 6.4 (-0.1) Biden -1.1 BIden -0.7
Trump Approval 43.1 (0) 0.1 3.1
Trump Disapproval 52.6 (+0.1) 0.2 -3.1
Favorability Biden 16.1 (0) Biden +0.8 Biden +4.4
Direction of the Country -36.2 (0) 1.6 9.3
Generic Ballot Dem 5.9 (0) Dem -1.2 Dem -2.7
Betting Markets Biden 52.5 (-0.2) Biden 0 Biden -8.2
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton -2    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +9    

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16 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

February polling had him tied with trump I think.

 

16 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

February polling had him tied with trump I think.

Average of polls has never had Trump tied. Biden’s lead averaged only +3 at the beginning of the year. He wasn’t the nominee then. Biden has been consistent at  at least +7 since the beginning of Summer. 

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Lots of fun tie scenarios with this map.

PA + NE-2

WI + AZ

MN + AZ

MI + NH + NE-2

NV + AZ + NH

NV + NH + MN + NE-2

NV + NH + WI + NE-2

Any I've missed? 😀

Sounds about right. Of these, I’d take out any with MN, NH or MI as being options as things look now. In fact, the only one I see as likely is #1. It might be the most likely tie scenario in US history. It’s very possible Trump flips PA and that NE district if he holds NC and FL. 

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8 minutes ago, vcczar said:

 

Average of polls has never had Trump tied. Biden’s lead averaged only +3 at the beginning of the year. He wasn’t the nominee then. Biden has been consistent at  at least +7 since the beginning of Summer. 

Right - closest they've been in the RCP ave. is about +4 Biden early late Dec. 2019 - Feb. 2020.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

 

 

Categories 48 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.0 (-0.1) Biden -0.8 Biden -1.0
AZ avg Biden 5.0 (-0.1) Biden -0.2 Biden +2.1
FL avg Biden 2.2 (-0.4) Biden -0.4 Biden -5.4
GA avg Trump 1.7 (0) Trump +0.1 Trump +0.4
IA avg Trump 1.9 (+0.1) Trump +0.6 Trump +1.6
MI Avg Biden 7.5 (0) Biden 0 Biden +0.1
MN avg Biden 7.6 (-0.1) Biden +1.4 Biden -3.5
MO avg Trump 6.7 (+0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump +1.2
NV avg Biden 5.7 (0) Biden -1.0 Biden -1.0
NH Avg Biden 6.7 (0) Biden -1.8 Biden -0.8
NC avg Biden 0.8 (-0.5) Biden -1.0 Biden -1.4
OH avg Trump 1.2 (+0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump +3.3
PA Avg Biden 4.9 (0) Biden -0.2 Biden -1.9
SC avg Trump 7.0 (+0.1) Trump +0.3 Trump +0.4
TX avg Trump 1.1 (+0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump +1.1
WI Avg Biden 6.4 (-0.1) Biden -1.1 BIden -0.7
Trump Approval 43.1 (0) 0.1 3.1
Trump Disapproval 52.6 (+0.1) 0.2 -3.1
Favorability Biden 16.1 (0) Biden +0.8 Biden +4.4
Direction of the Country -36.2 (0) 1.6 9.3
Generic Ballot Dem 5.9 (0) Dem -1.2 Dem -2.7
Betting Markets Biden 52.5 (-0.2) Biden 0 Biden -8.2
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton -2    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +9    

 

So I played my usual game of "How off do these results have to be, in order for Trump to win?"  And the answer was that if we assume that every state can swing in the opposite direction by x%, where X is equal for every state, the answer was:  It's impossible.  You could not find a percentage where the results favored Trump overall.  

So then I tried seeing how far things would have to move specifically in Trump's favor in order for Trump to win.  The answer was about 5%.  If every listed state moved 5% in Trump's favor...and 0 moved even an inch in Biden's favor...then Trump would win 280-258.

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1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

So I played my usual game of "How off do these results have to be, in order for Trump to win?"  And the answer was that if we assume that every state can swing in the opposite direction by x%, where X is equal for every state, the answer was:  It's impossible.  You could not find a percentage where the results favored Trump overall.  

So then I tried seeing how far things would have to move specifically in Trump's favor in order for Trump to win.  The answer was about 5%.  If every listed state moved 5% in Trump's favor...and 0 moved even an inch in Biden's favor...then Trump would win 280-258.

Can you rephrase your first paragraph? Don't understand what you're saying.

Your 2nd one makes complete sense, because PA is the big kahuna and it's about 5% Biden in the polling ave. VCCzar has above (+4.3% in the RCP). Not sure how relevant this is, though - often you get regional changes without corresponding national ones.

 

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3 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Can you rephrase your first paragraph? Don't understand what you're saying.

Your 2nd one makes complete sense, because PA is the big kahuna and it's about 5% Biden in the polling ave. VCCzar has above (+4.3% in the RCP). Not sure how relevant this is, though - often you get regional changes without corresponding national ones.

 

Sure.  For example, what would happen if the survey was off by 3%?  Meaning that Biden’s states swing 3% Trump’s way while Trump’s states swing 3% Biden’s way.

There is no % in which this works in Trump’s favor, because Texas swings to Biden very early.

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1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

Sure.  For example, what would happen if the survey was off by 3%?  Meaning that Biden’s states swing 3% Trump’s way while Trump’s states swing 3% Biden’s way.

There is no % in which this works in Trump’s favor, because Texas swings to Biden very early.

I think @admin_270is expecting every poll to swing in Trump’s favor.  

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3 hours ago, Actinguy said:

Sure.  For example, what would happen if the survey was off by 3%?  Meaning that Biden’s states swing 3% Trump’s way while Trump’s states swing 3% Biden’s way.

There is no % in which this works in Trump’s favor, because Texas swings to Biden very early.

OK. I just don't understand why you think that's an interesting metric.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

I think @admin_270is expecting every poll to swing in Trump’s favor.  

Not at all. Although I think it's reasonable to believe there's some significant bias in the polls (1-2%?), as I noted in my updated prediction, due to common-sense, anecdotal, and empirical data suggesting it.

However, I'm not dismissive of the polls. I am working with the belief that the poll aggregates are at least in the ballpark, with less confidence when it comes to less polled state-specific numbers.

I think a Trump victory requires significant movement in voter intentions between now and election day.

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8 hours ago, admin_270 said:

OK. I just don't understand why you think that's an interesting metric.

If we assume the survey results are accurate, then the election is already over.  Congratulations, Joe Biden.  But that's probably a bad assumption.  I'm not aware of any single survey that perfectly predicted every state's outcome.  

But if we assume the survey results are wrong, then how wrong do they need to be in order for Donald Trump to win?  The short answer is 5% -- provided that every state swings 5% in Trump's favor.  That's also probably a bad assumption.  It's more likely that every state is wrong to some degree -- but not consistently in one direction.  

Thus the thought exercise that I've created here.

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3 hours ago, Actinguy said:

If we assume the survey results are accurate, then the election is already over.

I don't understand this. The survey results are collections of indicated voting intentions. If they are accurate as current indications of voting intentions, how does that entail 'the election is already over'?

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11 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I don't understand this. The survey results are collections of indicated voting intentions. If they are accurate as current indications of voting intentions, how does that entail 'the election is already over'?

We’re getting pedantic.  I’ve explained it as best that I can explain it.

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5 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

We’re getting pedantic.  I’ve explained it as best that I can explain it.

I think what you're saying is if you froze those voting intentions and then had the election based on them, it's impossible for Biden to lose.

Yes, I think that's probably right. Really tough given current %s to see how Trump would win in that scenario.

But that's like saying Biden would have won the Iowa caucuses if they were held in January instead of February. Yes, that might be so ...

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10 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I think what you're saying is if you froze those voting intentions and then had the election based on them, it's impossible for Biden to lose.

Yes, I think that's probably right. Really tough given current %s to see how Trump would win in that scenario.

But that's like saying Biden would have won the Iowa caucuses if they were held in January instead of February. Yes, that might be so ...

I wasn't arguing in favor of doing so.  I was explaining why I had not.

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