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State of the Race: 49 Days Left


49 Days Poll  

26 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Is Trump a workaholic?

    • Yes, those close to him have said as such. He also barely sleeps and campaigns heavily.
    • No, he's lazy. He spends far too much time Tweeting, watching TV, playing golf, and holds too few briefings.
    • No, but he isn't lazy either. He just is disorganized and hasn't his priorities in order, which gives the appearance of laziness.
  3. 3. Is it a problem that Biden is rarely campaigning outside of Delaware?

    • Yes, he needs to be campaigning as much as Trump (or at least as much as Clinton in 2016).
    • No, it's not a problem if the polls are to be believed.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

The weekend was good for Trump, but Biden has some good news:

  • Trump gets a noticeable shift in NV and NH, but Biden still holds an average lead beyond a margin of error.
  • Biden gets a noticeable shift in MN, making it almost a safe state again for Biden.
  • Trump is back to 43% range approval.
  • Biden has his highest Net favorability ratings of the entire Last 100 Days period.
  • Generic Dems at their weakest lead so far in the last 100 days.
  • Clinton was losing -4 to Trump at this time in 2016. Biden is doing +11.1 better than Clinton vs. Trump nationally. 

NH is moved from Safe Blue to Likely Blue. 

Categories 49 Days A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.1 (-0.4) Biden -0.4 Biden -0.9
AZ avg Biden 5.1 (-0.2) Biden +0.5 Biden +2.2
FL avg Biden 2.6 (-0.1) Biden -0.1 Biden -5.0
GA avg Trump 1.7 (+0.2) Trump +0.2 Trump +0.4
IA avg Trump 1.8 (+0.2) Trump +0.2 Trump +1.5
MI Avg Biden 7.5 (-0.1) Biden +1.0 Biden (+0.1)
MN avg Biden 7.7 (+1.2) Biden +1.5 Biden -3.4
MO avg Trump 6.6 (+0.1) Trump +0.2 Trump +1.1
NV avg Biden 5.7 (-0.7) Biden -0.7 Biden -1.0
NH Avg Biden 6.7 (-1.5) Biden -1.5 Biden -1.5
NC avg Biden 1.3 (-0.1) Biden -0.4 Biden -0.9
OH avg Trump 1.1 (+0.2) Trump +0.2 Trump +3.2
PA Avg Biden 4.9 (-0.2) Biden +0.7 Biden -1.9
SC avg Trump 6.9 (+0.2) Trump +0.2 Trump +0.3
TX avg Trump 1.0 (+0.2) Trump -0.1 Trump +1.0
WI Avg Biden 6.5 (+0.4) Biden -0.9 Biden -0.6
Trump Approval 43.1 (+0.6) -0.1 2.9
Trump Disapproval 52.5 (-0.4) -0.1 -3.2
Favorability Biden 16.1 (+0.3) Biden +0.8 Biden +4.4
Direction of the Country -36.2 (0) 1.4 9.3
Generic Ballot Dem 5.9 (-0.1) Dem -1.0 -2.7
Betting Markets Biden 52.7 (-0.3) Biden -1.0 Biden -8.0
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton -4    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +11.1    

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24 minutes ago, Jayavarman said:

Will the Democrats win Arizona? Polls have remained much more blue than expected.  The state seems to be really changing.

It is one the fastest growing states. Most fast-growing states and large population states become Bluer. Florida is an exception. 

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"No, but he isn't lazy either. He just is disorganized and hasn't his priorities in order, which gives the appearance of laziness."

To me this view, which you mentioned in another thread, is much more plausible than 'he's lazy', which flies in the face of much that we have good reason to believe, and makes some sense of various things.

He very well may be disorganized (he has boasted about his disorganized business desk before, saying people who have everything neat and tidy tend not to actually accomplish much), and of course one can argue he doesn't have his priorities right. Of course, these aspects of c), on the one hand, and a) on the other, aren't mutually exclusive. He could be a disorganized workaholic who doesn't have his priorities right and also barely sleeps and campaigns heavily.

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15 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

One possibility that the Trump campaign might be looking at is Trump gets 37 EC with NC, MI, and NV.

Michigan is going to be very difficult for him to win. I could see him winning NC. NV will be hard too, but not impossible. MI is getting close to impossible, which for me is when Biden averages a +8 vs Trump. 

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Similar to the campaign schedules (Trump is doing in-person campaigning much more than Biden), there's this dynamic.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/trump-campaign-reaches-100m-voters-in-campaign-milestone/

The Trump campaign claims it is knocking on the doors of about 1M potential voters per week in battleground states, with a total of 12M since June. 

The Biden campaign has done zero, while focusing on online and mail outreach.

Not sure what this dynamic will do in terms of persuading voters, but it's unprecedented.

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Just now, vcczar said:

Very possible.

The factor that worries me is Trump winning PA,and WI -on election night- bringing him above 270, but when the mail ins and everything are counted Biden wins those two states, making him the winner.

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4 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Similar to the campaign schedules (Trump is doing in-person campaigning much more than Biden), there's this dynamic.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/trump-campaign-reaches-100m-voters-in-campaign-milestone/

The Trump campaign claims it is knocking on the doors of about 1M potential voters per week in battleground states, with a total of 12M since June. 

The Biden campaign has done zero, while focusing on online and mail outreach.

Not sure what this dynamic will do in terms of persuading voters, but it's unprecedented.

What's going to be funny is if Biden beats Trump in his projected large margin without even really campaigning or knocking on doors. That would underscore Trump's unpopularity in America. Add in the possibility of Biden dementia and his advanced age and it becomes even funnier. 

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4 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

The factor that worries me is Trump winning PA,and WI -on election night- bringing him above 270, but when the mail ins and everything are counted Biden wins those two states, making him the winner.

PA is possible. WI is largely (huge margin for Biden) for Biden currently. Trump is going to win that one district in ME. If he wins PA too, then he gets a 269-269 tie. Trump would likely win a tie.

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

What's going to be funny is if Biden beats Trump in his projected large margin without even really campaigning or knocking on doors. That would underscore Trump's unpopularity in America. Add in the possibility of Biden dementia and his advanced age and it becomes even funnier. 

Yes, if that happens it would really underscore the victory.

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6 hours ago, Jayavarman said:

Will the Democrats win Arizona? Polls have remained much more blue than expected.  The state seems to be really changing.

Trump campaign visiting there today + expanding ad buys. Interesting to see if the polls budge much in the next while.

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