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State of the Race: 52 Days Left


52 Day poll  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Woodward caught Trump on tape admitting to the severity of Covid and admitting that he would seek to play the virus down. What more accurately reflects your response?

    • This is traitorous on Trump's part!
    • This is traitorous on Woodward's part!
      0
    • This isn't traitorous but it should be criminal on Trump's part!
    • This is taken out of context.
    • Trump doesn't want to cause panic.
    • This isn't criminal or traitorous. Trump is just being honest about not wanting to damage his approval or reelection chances by shutting the entire country down.
    • other (mention below)
  3. 3. Were the 9-11 attacks an inside job?

  4. 4. Where were you on Sept 11 2001?

    • I wasn't born yet.
    • I was too young to remember.
    • I was a child, but I do remember it.
    • I was in high school.
    • I was in college/university.
    • I was an adult that wasn't in school.
    • I don't remember.
      0
  5. 5. Who would you trust more in handling and responding to a 9/11-like attack on US soil and the response to it?



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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Slightly better day for Biden in the states, although no significant movement either way.

Map is the same. 

Trump was leading Clinton in the polls in 2016 at this time by 1 pt. Biden is leading Trump 7.5.

Categories 52 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.5 (-0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.5
AZ avg Biden 5.3 (0) Biden +0.7 Biden +2.4
FL avg Biden 2.7 (0) Biden -0.1 Biden -4.9
GA avg Trump 1.5 (0) Trump +0.1 Trump +0.2
IA avg Trump 1.6 (-0.1) Trump 0 Trump +1.3
MI Avg Biden 7.6 (0) Biden +1.1 Biden +0.2
MN avg Biden 6.4 (0) Biden +0.5 Biden -4.7
MO avg Trump 6.5 (0) Trump 6.5 (0) Trump +1.0
NV avg Biden 6.4 (0) Biden 6.4 (0) Biden -0.3
NH Avg Biden 8.2 (0) Biden +0.1 Biden +0.7
NC avg Biden 1.4 (-0.2) Biden -0.4 Biden -0.8
OH avg Trump 0.9 (0) Trump -1.0 Trump +3.0
PA Avg Biden 5.1 (+0.2) Biden +1.0 Biden -1.7
SC avg Trump 6.7 (0) Trump 6.7 (0) Trump +0.1
TX avg Trump +0.8 (-0.1) Trump -0.7 Trump +0.8
WI Avg Biden 6.9 (0) Biden -0.3 Biden -0.2
Trump Approval 42.5 (-0.2) -1.1 2.3
Trump Disapproval 52.9 (-0.2) 0.7 -2.8
Favorability Biden 15.8 (0) Biden +0.4 Biden +3.9
Direction of the Country -36.2 (0) 3.2 9.3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.0 (0) Dem -0.8 Dem -2.6
Betting Markets Biden 53.0 (0) Biden +2.5 Biden -7.7
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton -1    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden 8.5    

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The phrasing of the question re Woodward is a bit sensationalistic, TBH. Woodward didn't 'catch' Trump on tape - it was a recorded, regular interview from months ago, queued up for a hit job in time for the election and to sell Woodward's upcoming book.

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12 minutes ago, billay said:

Yeah Woodwards book is a bunch of nonsense. Fauci praised Trumps handling back in March, People were hoarding freaking toilet paper so the president had to be a calming influence. 

March has been a while ago, bud.

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Good God, yall, this'll help him a ton - his acolytes will infer he didn't want to start a panic! Even though he... kinda did.

As for #5, well, if Trimp were in charge when it happened..... it's this. Except for the ending of course, that'd be in his head. Rule of UNReason, more likely.

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It is so odd that about half or more of the people on this forum weren't born yet or were too young to remember Sept 11, 2001. It still feels like it was yesterday somedays. 

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Another day and Trump's doing a rally in Nevada while Biden ... has no event planned, it seems.

It's not really a big deal right now. It becomes a problem if it turns into a tortoise and the hare situation. 

I do wish Biden listed the upcoming events on his campaign website like Clinton did in 2016. I have no clue when Biden is going to be where. 

Regardless, Americans don't seem to care he's staying at home all the time. He's till got a 7 to 8% pt lead nationally and a 305-350 EV lead in the EC on any given week. That said, I wish he'd be out more to increase this lead.

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

It's not really a big deal right now. It becomes a problem if it turns into a tortoise and the hare situation. 

I do wish Biden listed the upcoming events on his campaign website like Clinton did in 2016. I have no clue when Biden is going to be where. 

Regardless, Americans don't seem to care he's staying at home all the time. He's till got a 7 to 8% pt lead nationally and a 305-350 EV lead in the EC on any given week. That said, I wish he'd be out more to increase this lead.

One thing that's interesting is Trump is going to Nevada. Biden +6.4 in your numbers.

I tend to pay more attention to where top campaigners are going than what poll numbers say, especially as we get closer to the election.

If Trump is going to Nevada, that indicates they believe it's in play, so ... interesting.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

One thing that's interesting is Trump is going to Nevada. Biden +6.4 in your numbers.

I tend to pay more attention to where top campaigners are going than what poll numbers say, especially as we get closer to the election.

If Trump is going to Nevada, that indicates they believe it's in play, so ... interesting.

Or they want you to think it's in play ;)

 

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

One thing that's interesting is Trump is going to Nevada. Biden +6.4 in your numbers.

I tend to pay more attention to where top campaigners are going than what poll numbers say, especially as we get closer to the election.

If Trump is going to Nevada, that indicates they believe it's in play, so ... interesting.

I think every candidate should campaign in any state that is not more than +8 for someone else. They're a fool if they don't. 

The ad spending is interesting too: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/06/politics/battlegrounds-campaign-ad-spending/index.html

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Just now, vcczar said:

I think every candidate should campaign in any state that is not more than +8 for someone else. They're a fool if they don't. 

The ad spending is interesting too: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/06/politics/battlegrounds-campaign-ad-spending/index.html

The ad spending could explain a few things.

1. Minnesota appears to tighten more than it would normally.

2. Wisconsin seems to be staying Democratic, same with Michigan

3. Pennsylvania and North Carolina are the battlegrounds (getting even there)

4. Georgia, Texas and Ohio are more Republican still

 

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38 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Trump currently has a heavier campaigning schedule than Biden *while also* being POTUS. Typically, the challenger has an advantage in being able to out-campaign. So far that doesn't seem to be the case.

He's not doing most of the things a president normally does, so he's got some extra time

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37 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Lame. Trump is a notorious workaholic.

If that is the case, then his priorities aren't on being a president. It seems to me that he's watching TV, Tweeting, and playing golf much more than any president. I'd say he's more active than a workaholic.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Lame. Trump is a notorious workaholic.

Not only is he notorious for watching TV and playing golf, not to mention the tweeting, he defined “so many meetings” as 2-3 a week to Jonathan Swan in his Axios interview. The guy isn’t anything close to a workaholic in the Oval.

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