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Early Vote Edge

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I'd like to predicate this by saying it was always going to be obvious that Democrats were going to return more early ballots than Republicans - after all, they've emphasized it, where Republicans have not. But this Politico article gives it in stark terms. Quote is below

They (Democrats) point to Florida as a major bright spot. Democrats lead Republicans in vote-by-mail requests 2.1 million to 1.4 million, according to a GOP consultant who is tracking the figures. At this same point in 2016, Democrats trailed Republicans in requests.

So between 2016 and 2020, Democrats turned from being behind in early requests to ahead by 700k. Obviously, Trump wants a good Election Day turnout, but the GOP cannot really afford to completely abandon early voting, which is beginning to seem like a sign of Democratic enthusiasm. Plus, early votes are the same as election day votes - but they're already in. So Democrats won't lose these votes, whereas if less Republicans vote early, if there is an October surprise against Trump, they'll have less votes already 'in the bank', per se. 


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