Jump to content
270soft Forum

State of the Race: 54 Days Left


54 Day Poll  

25 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Considering Trump had led in the national polls several times in 2016 vs. Clinton but has been landslided in these polls every day in 2020, which of the following do you think is more true?

    • Trump is significantly underperforming in 2020 as compared to 2016.
    • Biden is a significantly better candidate in 2020 than Clinton was in 2016.
    • More people dislike Trump now than they did in 2016.
    • Covid and its recession are the cause for this.
    • Fake News. The polls are all propaganda to make Trump appear much weaker and unsupported than he actually is.
    • The Trump "shy" voters are much more numerous and much more shy this time.
  3. 3. If you were a US Senator would you sign the Coronavirus Bill?

    • Yes, because this watered-down relief bill is at least some relief and isn't as expensive as a Democrat preferred bill.
    • Yes, but only because the bill might help the Republicans in the polls if it is signed.
    • Yes, even though it is only a well played trap. If Democrats don't sign it, then they look like their choosing politics over the people. If they do sign it, then they make it look like the Republicans are leading on Covid.
    • No, because even if it means further relief will have to wait longer, the bill does not go far enough. Block it and force the Republicans to agree to better conditions for the American people.
    • No, primarily because signing the bill might help the Republicans more than not signing it will hurt Democrats.
      0
  4. 4. Does Donald Trump wear adult diapers?

    • Yes.
    • Not sure but several photos are out there that make it seem like he has something in his pants.
    • Not sure, but I'm leaning toward that any such photos are photo shopped by childish anti-Trumpers
    • No.
  5. 5. If truthful reports prove Biden has dementia, and Biden drops out in favor of Harris, which of the following is true?

    • It won't change which party I prefer to win the White House
    • It will change which party I prefer to win the White House
    • Harris beats Trump in 2020
    • Trump beats Harris in 2020


Recommended Posts

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75

As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Polls a plenty today!

Big gains for Biden in the following states: AZ, MI, PA. Nothing significant for Trump. 

No map changes but both MI and WI will be moved to safe if their average lead for Biden moves up half a percent. 

Trump was leading Clinton in the polls on this day in 2016. 

Categories 54 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.8 (+0.3) Biden +0.5 Biden -0.2
AZ avg Biden 5.2 (+0.6) Biden 4.6 (+0.6) Biden +2.3
FL avg Biden 2.6 (-0.1) Biden -1.5 Biden -5.0
GA avg Trump 1.6 (+0.1) Trump +0.1 Trump +0.3
IA avg Trump 1.3 (-0.3) Trump -0.5 Trump +1.0
MI Avg Biden 7.5 (+1.0) Biden +1.1 Biden +0.1
MN avg Biden 6.2 (0) Biden +0.2 Biden -4.9
MO avg Trump 6.3 (-0.1) Trump -0.2 Trump +0.8
NV avg Biden 6.7 (+0.3) Biden +0.3 Biden 0
NH Avg Biden 8.5 (+0.3) Biden +0.6 Biden +1.0
NC avg Biden 1.8 (+0.1) Biden +0.2 Biden -0.4
OH avg Trump 0.8 (-0.1) Trump -1.1 Trump +2.9
PA Avg Biden 5.1 (+0.9) Biden +1.7 Biden -1.7
SC avg Trump 6.6 (-0.1) Trump -0.1 Trump 0
TX avg Trump 0.7 (-0.4) Trump -0.8 Trump +0.7
WI Avg Biden 7.5 (+0.1) Biden +0.4 Biden +0.4
Trump Approval 43.0 (-0.2) -0.5 2.8
Trump Disapproval 52.8 (+0.2) 0.5 -2.9
Favorability Biden 15.3 (0) -0.1 3.3
Direction of the Country -37.8 (-0.2) 1.6 8.3
Generic Ballot Dem 7.1 (+0.2) Dem +0.3 Dem -1.5
Betting Markets Biden 52.5 (-1.2) Biden 2.3 Biden -8.2
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton -1    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +8.8    

Glz8l.png

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll reiterate previous comments that some of these questions could use a "I haven't heard anything about this/don't know enough about it" option.  For example, this is the first I'm hearing of the adult diapers and haven't seen the pictures you're asking about.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I'll reiterate previous comments that some of these questions could use a "I haven't heard anything about this/don't know enough about it" option.  For example, this is the first I'm hearing of the adult diapers and haven't seen the pictures you're asking about.

Just google for them. They'v been posted as photos emerge over his presidency. It's not a big news item. I've seen two this week, and one yesterday, which made me think of using it for this poll. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, admin_270 said:

@vcczar

How are you weighting polls? Are you just taking 538's ratings verbatim? Or are you adding an intermediary level of analysis?

I’m using the 538. It’s the most advanced polling averaging system. It’s more expansive and encompassing than RCP, which is obsolete now since the 538 polling include ever poll RCP uses. I do use RCP for betting, Favorability, generic dem, and direction of country because 538 isn’t keeping track of those as well as RCP. The only thing that is original in my posts is my forecast map.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I’m using the 538. It’s the most advanced polling averaging system. It’s more expansive and encompassing than RCP, which is obsolete now

OK. My guess is their pollster ratings are open to reasonable debate. Not sure what you mean by RCP is now 'obsolete'. They're a competing model, which presumably will be shown to be more or less accurate come election day.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Biden can't "drop out in favor of Harris".  It's too late to switch nominees in most states.  Plus, Biden dropping out doesn't make Harris the nominee.  The Democrats would have have a new convention and vote on who the new nominee would be.

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, pilight said:

Biden can't "drop out in favor of Harris".  It's too late to switch nominees in most states.  Plus, Biden dropping out doesn't make Harris the nominee.  The Democrats would have have a new convention and vote on who the new nominee would be.

It can be done unofficially via Agreement with electors

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

OK. My guess is their pollster ratings are open to reasonable debate. Not sure what you mean by RCP is now 'obsolete'. They're a competing model, which presumably will be shown to be more or less accurate come election day.

RCP only uses like 10 polls, including some of the lower grade polls. 538 uses every poll that doesn’t have a failed grade. If you are wanting a polling average 538 is the only one doing it the right way. You can’t get an accurate estimate with RCP’s arbitrary restrictions. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

RCP only uses like 10 polls, including some of the lower grade polls. 538 uses every poll that doesn’t have a failed grade. If you are wanting a polling average 538 is the only one doing it the right way. You can’t get an accurate estimate with RCP’s arbitrary restrictions.

This doesn't make much sense to me. Using fewer polls might create a more accurate result. By 'lower grade polls', you mean according to the grade that 538 gives them? Then that's almost circular reasoning to support your conclusion.

Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, vcczar said:

It can be done unofficially via Agreement with electors

If you want to guarantee a contested election, you could try this.  Also, most states legally require the electors to follow the results of the voting in the state which would be for Biden, not Harris.  Those laws were upheld by the Supreme Court this summer in Chiafalo v. Washington.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

This doesn't make much sense to me. Using fewer polls might create a more accurate result. By 'lower grade polls', you mean according to the grade that 538 gives them? Then that's almost circular reasoning to support your conclusion.

It is helpful to have as many polls as possible to get a good polling average. Arbitrary restrictions to maybe 10 polls is only an average of those 10 polls and not a real polling average. The polls that are “banned” by 538 are also not used by the obsolete RCP. These are mainly internet polls that allow multi-voting or polls with small sampling sizes. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

It is helpful to have as many polls as possible to get a good polling average.

Not sure what you mean by 'good polling average'. If you mean 'accurate', which presumably is what we want, this simply doesn't follow.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Not sure what you mean by 'good polling average'. If you mean 'accurate', which presumably is what we want, this simply doesn't follow.

You're really good at picking what parts to respond to, and ignoring the obvious answer that vcczar gave you. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...