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Quick Shot 2016: Republican Primary


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Carly visits Las Vegas, Nevada and tours around with culinary workers to talk about cutting their taxes.

Carly hammers her business credentials in Reno, Nevada

Carly talks about the importance of 21st century renewable power from the perspective of a Californian/Westerner in Henderson, Nevada

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Event One Roll: 3. A poorly run and messaged tour does not help Kasich. Event Two Roll: 7. A strong rally. Event Three Roll: 3. The townhall experiences depressed turnout. Overall: -2.

Event One Roll: 1! Paul trips over his words and refers to the state as Kentucky multiple times.(Negative Viral) Event Two Roll: 3. A rather weak event. Event Three Roll: 7. A strong message

@Fbarbarossa @CentristGuy @Hestia11 @ALiteralNeoliberal @Cenzonico @BeetleJuice @Reagan04 @buenoboss @WVProgressive Iowa Caucus Results: Turnout: 198,872 Votes Donald Trump: 25.98% -

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Cruz Drops out from the Race. 

Cruz endorses Trump at a rally in Columbia, South Carolina. Cruz encourages his supporters to wholeheartedly back Trump saying that "He is the jump start this country needs after the Obama years"

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 @Hestia11 @ALiteralNeoliberal  @Reagan04  @WVProgressive

I apologize, but I was not able to send out a reminder ping before I went to bed last night reminding people that there is a South Carolina debate, and that only 3 people have sent in actions, so please do that so we can finish this turn and I can make results for SC. Thank you.

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@Fbarbarossa  @Hestia11 @ALiteralNeoliberal @Cenzonico @BeetleJuice @Reagan04 @WVProgressive

South Carolina Debate Scores:

Ben Carson: +9. Carson was strong throughout the debate, giving a strong and well crafted message throughout the night centering on his christian values and outsider stance, leading some to speculate that many Cruz voters may be drawn to him. He was also part of the Gang of Four who murdered Donald Trump(Metaphorically).

 

Marco Rubio: +5. With a strong debate performance recovering from his mishaps on the New Hampshire debate stage, Rubio gave strong strong appeals to moderate voters, and was part of the Gang of Four who murdered Donald Trump(Metaphorically). He did suffer mishaps, however, with a viral moment calling for increasing the division found in the country.

 

Jeb Bush: +4. Jeb Bush gave a strong performance, only hindered by a weak attempt to appeal to conservative voters. However, his debate performance was mostly unremarkable outside of his membership in the Gang of Four, who murdered Donald Trump(Metaphorically).

 

Rand Paul: +3. Paul gave a somewhat strong debate performance, energizing his base and Gun Rights Activists, though he failed to effectively attack Marco Rubio, and was not part of the infamous Gang of Four, who murdered Donald Trump(Metaphorically).

 

Chris Christie: -1. Chris failed to give off a strong debate, stumbling when it came to attempting to appeal to both populists and moderates alike, and when it came to a failed attack on Jeb Bush, who was a part of the Gang of Four who murdered Donald Trump(Metaphorically), unlike Christie.

 

Carly Fiorina: -4. Carly was not strong during the debate, failing with a rather poor core message and failing to appeal to female voters. However, she was the most minor yet still recognized member of the Gang of Four, who murdered Donald Trump(Metaphorically).

 

Donald Trump: -17. Donald J. Trump died on February 13th, 2016 at the hands of a violent gang of politicians named the Gang of Four(Metaphorically). 

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13 hours ago, CentristGuy said:

Cruz Drops out from the Race. 

Cruz endorses Trump at a rally in Columbia, South Carolina. Cruz encourages his supporters to wholeheartedly back Trump saying that "He is the jump start this country needs after the Obama years"

Endorsement Roll: 1! The Cruz supporters at the rally heckle Cruz off stage, and outrage spreads online and in the media as Cruz supporters and everyone else alike condemn the horrid endorsement. Social conservatives who trusted Cruz as an honest, Godly man condemn him for endorsing a lying narcissist, while the media condemn the endorsement as a sign Cruz does not care about his ideals, instead only caring about going with whoever looks like the winner in a given political situation. Some Cruz supporters are rallying around Trump, yet so many more are flowing to Carson, Rubio, and Fiorina.

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On 9/12/2020 at 12:55 PM, BeetleJuice said:

1. Christie meets with black faith leaders in South Carolina 

2. Christie discusses rural investment in South Carolina. 

3. Christie releases ad targeting South Carolina.  The ad casts Christie as a populist, willing to fight lobbyist in Washington and the DC swamp

Event Rolls:

7: A strong appeal to black conservatives.

4. A weaker than average message.

6. A better than average ad.

Overall: +2. A better than average turn.

On 9/12/2020 at 2:02 PM, Hestia11 said:

1. Rubio barnstorms in South Carolina

2. Rubio releases an ad in South Carolina and Nevada touting his experience.

3. Rubio visits Las Vegas and meets with the Hispanic community

Event Rolls:

8. A strong tour through the state.

7. A strong ad.

4. A worse than average visit.

Overall: +4. A strong turn.

On 9/12/2020 at 2:25 PM, Fbarbarossa said:

Trump holds a rally in South Carolina where he explains how he will fight for blue collar workers by not allowing big businesses to sell out to China

Trump releases a national ad campaign attacking Jeb Bush. He claims that America was born from fighting against a monarchy and another Bush as President would be defying that principle.

Trump holds a rally in Carson City. He stresses that he is the only candidate who is capable of defeating Hillary Clinton because he is capable of being an individual.

Event Rolls:

2. A weak rally.

6. A better than average attack ad.

6. A better than average rally.

Overall: -1. Not the best turn depending on the state.

On 9/12/2020 at 3:28 PM, WVProgressive said:

Rand Paul holds a rally in Las Vegas, talking about Immigration

Rand Paul tours rural Nevada, talking about gun rights

Rand Paul holds a rally in Carson City, where he talks about government spending

Event Rolls:

8. A strong rally.

6. A better than average tour.

4. A worse than average rally.

Overall: +3. A strong turn.

23 hours ago, Cenzonico said:

Jeb Bush holds a town hall in Charleston, South Carolina to answer general questions about policy and such

Jeb Bush holds a rally in Columbia, South Carolina about reaffirming America's role in the world. 

Jeb Bush tours the city of Reno trying to better his image, getting voters.

Event Rolls:

3. A weak townhall.

4. A worse than average rally.

2. A weak tour.

Overall: -6. Bad turn, Jeb, bad turn.

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21 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Carly visits Las Vegas, Nevada and tours around with culinary workers to talk about cutting their taxes.

Carly hammers her business credentials in Reno, Nevada

Carly talks about the importance of 21st century renewable power from the perspective of a Californian/Westerner in Henderson, Nevada

Event Rolls:

1! Carly is booed down and forced to cancel her events in the city thanks to protesters.(Negative Viral)

3. A rather weak focus for her camaigning.

7. A strong message.

Overall: -4. Not a great turn.

15 hours ago, ALiteralNeoliberal said:

1. Carson tours rural South Carolina

2. Carson holds a pro life rally in Myrtle Beach, SC, 

3. In Mount Pleasant, SC, Carson talks education

Event Rolls:

10! Carson's tour is electric and has events packed with rural voters.(Viral)

5. An average rally.

10! Carson brings strength and energy to the event.(Viral)

Overall: +10. A strong turn!

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@Fbarbarossa  @Hestia11 @ALiteralNeoliberal @Cenzonico @BeetleJuice @Reagan04 @WVProgressive
 

South Carolina Primary Results:


Turnout: 764,903 Votes


Marco Rubio: 28.48% - 217,880 Votes - 38 delegates


Donald Trump: 28.24% - 216,001 Votes - 12 delegates


Ben Carson: 19.06% - 145,763 Votes


Jeb Bush: 12.36% - 94,556 Votes


Carly Fiorina: 5.77% - 44,098 Votes


Rand Paul: 3.35% - 25,607 Votes


Chris Christie: 2.74% - 20,998 Votes


 

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(Note: For those confused, South Carolina is First Past The Post for delegate allocation, but there are also delegates from Congressional Districts, which are assigned with FPP based on the winner of the Congressional District. So, that is how Trump has 12 delegates.)

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@Fbarbarossa  @Hestia11 @ALiteralNeoliberal @Cenzonico @BeetleJuice @Reagan04 @WVProgressive

February 21st Race Updates/Polling:

 

Important: There is no debate this turn, as there was no debate IRL between South Carolina and Nevada.

 

Timeline: This turn will last until tomorrow morning EST to allow room for everyone to post or until everyone has posted. In-RP it will last from February 21st to 23rd(Don't worry, the next turn will make up for it by going all the way to Super Tuesday)

 


News Updates: With the South Carolina Primary, the fear, confusion, and even morbid excitement which was felt by many primary voters remains, but now with significant hope included. This hope comes from moderate and anti-Trump voters, who were deathly afraid of a third Trump win in South Carolina. However, this win did not materialize, as Trump was murdered on the debate stage by a raving band of four politicians at the South Carolina debate(Metaphorically). Trump was seriously damaged by the events which occurred there and with unextraordinary campaigning in the leadup to the primary failed to capitalize on the mocked and hated endorsement of him by Ted Cruz, who despite his third-place position in the race, recognized that his failure to win Iowa consigned him to a weak and vulnerable position in the race, choosing to bow out. In Cruz's place surged populist Ben Carson, who gave a strong and definitive victory at the South Carolina debate and surged in the leadup to the primary. He surged to a strong third and has been energized in national polling, and some are saying he could replace Cruz's position in the race. Ahead of Carson and Trump was Rubio, who with a strong debate combined with Trump's collapse was able to grab a victory in the state. This win has energized his campaign and allowed for him to make a recovery from the defeat of New Hampshire, though whether or not this will lead to his overall victory in the primary is unknown, especially as defeat seems likely in Nevada. Behind Carson was Bush, who despite overperforming from polling likely expected this already thanks to Cruz's suspension, and was only saved from decline in the state by a strong debate performance, after a round of poor campaigning. Whether the result will help or hurt his chances isn't clear, but it currently appears to have begun to stall his momentum out, though he has moved upward as residue of the New Hampshire momentum he received. Below Bush was Carly Fiorina, who would've gained quite some support from Cruz if not for Carson, a poor debate, and a seeming abandonment of the state. Her loss is something that has weakened the flow of Cruz voters to her, though she holds onto a few. No other candidate is important.

 

RCP National Polling Average:
Trump: 34.2%
Rubio: 29.7%
Carson: 10.9% 
Bush: 9.6% 
Fiorina: 7.2%
Christie: 2.5%
Paul: 2.2%
Undecided: 3.7%


 

RCP Nevada Polling Average:
Trump: 37.3%
Rubio: 27.0%
Carson: 11.2%
Bush: 10.1%
Fiorina: 7.0%
Paul: 2.7%
Christie: 1.3%
Undecided: 3.4%
 

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Christie campaigns in Las Vegas discussing the need to secure the border. 

Christie meets with Angel Moms at a roundtable discussion in Reno.

Christie releases and Ad (targeting Nevada) accusing Rubio of supporting a pathway for citizenship. 

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Jeb Bush rallies in Las Vegas about immigration reform 

Jeb Bush tours Carson City trying to get some last minute support 

The Bush campaign release an ad about why Jeb is the best candidate for job growth. (targeting Nevada)

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Carly Fiorina continues her tour of Nevada talking energy policy in Elko, Nevada

Carly Fiorina talks about cutting taxes in Reno, Nevada

Carly Fiorina discusses deregulation in Paradise, Nevada

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Rand Paul talks about his social policy in Las Vegas

Rand Paul holds a town hall in Reno, answering questions about how a Libertarian government would work

Rand Paul campaigns in Carson City, framing himself as the gun rights candidate in the race

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Rubio meets members of the Hispanic community in Vegas

Rubio tours rural Nevada counties

Rubio ends the day in Dallas, TX with a big rally

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Because @Fbarbarossahasn't posted, I will do his events for him to move the RP along. 

Trump will hold a rally in Las Vegas.

Trump will tour rural Nevada.

Trump will hold a rally in Reno.

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23 hours ago, BeetleJuice said:

Christie campaigns in Las Vegas discussing the need to secure the border. 

Christie meets with Angel Moms at a roundtable discussion in Reno.

Christie releases and Ad (targeting Nevada) accusing Rubio of supporting a pathway for citizenship. 

Event Rolls:

3. A fairly weak stay in Vegas.

4. A worse than average discussion.

2. A weak ad.

Overall: -6. A bad turn for Christie.

23 hours ago, Cenzonico said:

Jeb Bush rallies in Las Vegas about immigration reform 

Jeb Bush tours Carson City trying to get some last minute support 

The Bush campaign release an ad about why Jeb is the best candidate for job growth. (targeting Nevada)

Event Rolls:

6. A better than average rally.

6. A better than average tour.

8. A strong ad.

Overall: +5. A strong turn.

21 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Carly Fiorina continues her tour of Nevada talking energy policy in Elko, Nevada

Carly Fiorina talks about cutting taxes in Reno, Nevada

Carly Fiorina discusses deregulation in Paradise, Nevada

Event Rolls:

1! Carly stumbles through the event, getting multiple statistics wrong and making numerous false claims.(Negative Viral)

1! Carly mixes up  "lower" and "raise" at the event, saying, "We need to drastically raise taxes for everyone in America."(Negative Viral)

2. Carly stumbles through a low-turnout and energy event.

Overall: -11. Carly is not doing so great this turn.

21 hours ago, WVProgressive said:

Rand Paul talks about his social policy in Las Vegas

Rand Paul holds a town hall in Reno, answering questions about how a Libertarian government would work

Rand Paul campaigns in Carson City, framing himself as the gun rights candidate in the race

Event Rolls:

5. An average message and event.

7. A strong townhall.

2. A very weak event.

Overall: -1. Not the best turn.

21 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

Rubio meets members of the Hispanic community in Vegas

Rubio tours rural Nevada counties

Rubio ends the day in Dallas, TX with a big rally

Event Rolls:

5. An average meeting.

9. A strong tour.

6. A better than average rally.

Overall: +5. A strong turn.

21 hours ago, ALiteralNeoliberal said:

Carson tours rural Nevada,

Carson talks tax reform in Reno, NV,

Carson talks about how being a neurosurgeon has prepared him for the presidency,

Event Rolls:

9. A strong tour.

7. A strong message.

7. A strong message.

Overall: +8. A strong turn for Carson.

22 minutes ago, The Blood said:

Because @Fbarbarossahasn't posted, I will do his events for him to move the RP along. 

Trump will hold a rally in Las Vegas.

Trump will tour rural Nevada.

Trump will hold a rally in Reno.

Event Rolls:

2. A weak rally.

4. A worse than average tour.

7. A strong rally.

Overall: -2. Not the best week.

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@Fbarbarossa  @Hestia11 @ALiteralNeoliberal @Cenzonico @BeetleJuice @Reagan04 @WVProgressive

Nevada Caucus Results:


Turnout: 81,624 Votes


Donald Trump: 33.22% - 27,112 Votes - 10 delegates


Marco Rubio: 29.82% -  24,341 Votes - 9 delegates


Ben Carson: 15.81% - 12,901 Votes - 5 delegates


Jeb Bush: 11.99% - 9,789 Votes - 3 delegates


Carly Fiorina: 5.67% - 4,631 Votes - 2 delegates


Rand Paul: 2.58% - 2,105 Votes - 1 delegate


Chris Christie: 0.91% - 745 Votes

 

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I am going to be busy for much of the day now, and I likely won't be able to put out the next turn until the evening, but the next update will include polling for all Super Tuesday states!

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