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Quick Shot 2016: Republican Primary


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Rand Paul tours rural Iowa where he talks about gun rights.

Rand Paul goes to Manchester, New Hampshire

Rand Paul talks about deficit reduction while in Sioux City, Iowa

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Event One Roll: 3. A poorly run and messaged tour does not help Kasich. Event Two Roll: 7. A strong rally. Event Three Roll: 3. The townhall experiences depressed turnout. Overall: -2.

Event One Roll: 1! Paul trips over his words and refers to the state as Kentucky multiple times.(Negative Viral) Event Two Roll: 3. A rather weak event. Event Three Roll: 7. A strong message

@Fbarbarossa @CentristGuy @Hestia11 @ALiteralNeoliberal @Cenzonico @BeetleJuice @Reagan04 @buenoboss @WVProgressive Iowa Caucus Results: Turnout: 198,872 Votes Donald Trump: 25.98% -

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Jeb Bush travels to Sioux City, Iowa to talk about improving our economy and getting more people jobs. 

Jeb Bush holds a event in Austin, Texas with his brother George about why Jeb is the best for America! 

The Bush campaign releases a TV ad in New Hampshire about experience, Jeb's great record.

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Christie discusses the need for federal entitlement reform in Des Moines, Iowa.

Christie discusses prison reform in New Hampshire.

Christie releases advertisement titled, "Telling it Like it is" in Iowa. 

 

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Ted Cruz holds a rally on Christian Values in Des Moines.

Ted Cruz Releases an Ad in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, highlighting his Conservative Credentials. 

Ted Cruz speaks about the Danger of losing the GE if Trump is nominated in New Hampshire. 

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On 9/9/2020 at 8:08 AM, buenoboss said:

John Kasich tours rural New Hampshire

John Kasich holds a rally in Concord, NH

John Kasich holds a town hall in rural New Hampshire

Event One Roll: 3. A poorly run and messaged tour does not help Kasich.

Event Two Roll: 7. A strong rally.

Event Three Roll: 3. The townhall experiences depressed turnout.

Overall: -2. Not the best week for Kasich.

On 9/9/2020 at 8:50 AM, Hestia11 said:

Rubio tours Council Bluffs, Iowa, spending time with the local Republican chapter there

Rubio then flies to New Hampshire, where he meets with several conservative action groups

Rubio ends his day in South Carolina, where he meets with a group of Black Republicans. 

Event Roll One 10!: The tour is electric, as Rubio gives off charisma and energy(Viral)

Event Roll Two: 10! The meeting is exciting and filled with media attention and Rubio charm.(Viral)

Event Roll Three: 6. A better than average meeting.

Overall: +11. May only god help us now...

On 9/9/2020 at 8:58 AM, ALiteralNeoliberal said:

1. Ben Carson talks about how a Carson administration will foster economic growth, job creation through a strong free market. 
2. Ben Carson talks about religion and its importance in shaping his moral values, how he has spoken at many National Prayer breakfasts, at a rally in Spartanburg, SC
3. Ben Carson runs an ad campaign across South Carolina that talks about how his history as a neurosurgeon shows he is ready to lead as president during a national crisis,
 

Event One Roll: 4. Carson seems almost asleep while giving the message.

Event Two Roll: 8. A strong rally and message.

Event Three Roll: 9. An inspiring and exciting ad.

Overall: +6. A strong week.

On 9/9/2020 at 9:36 AM, Reagan04 said:

Carly Fiorina hammers her business credentials in Manchester, New Hampshire

Carly Fiorina emphasizes her relationship with the Intelligence Community as Foreign Policy credentials in Nashua, New Hampshire

Carly Fiorina talks about the need for major tax reform in Laconia, New Hampshire

Event Roll One: 8. A strong event and message.

Event Roll Two: 6. Better than average event.

Event Three Roll: 10! The event is packed to the brim with media and people as Fiorina gives a strong and policy focused look at tax reform.(Viral)

Overall: +9. A strong week.

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On 9/9/2020 at 10:06 AM, WVProgressive said:

Rand Paul tours rural Iowa where he talks about gun rights.

Rand Paul goes to Manchester, New Hampshire

Rand Paul talks about deficit reduction while in Sioux City, Iowa

Event One Roll: 1! Paul trips over his words and refers to the state as Kentucky multiple times.(Negative Viral)

Event Two Roll: 3. A rather weak event.

Event Three Roll: 7. A strong message.

Overall: -4. Not a great week for Paul.

23 hours ago, Cenzonico said:

Jeb Bush travels to Sioux City, Iowa to talk about improving our economy and getting more people jobs. 

Jeb Bush holds a event in Austin, Texas with his brother George about why Jeb is the best for America! 

The Bush campaign releases a TV ad in New Hampshire about experience, Jeb's great record.

Event Roll One: 6. A better than average event.

Event Roll Two: 4. A worse than average event, probably because someone throws a shoe at George.

Event Roll Three: 8. A strong ad.

Overall: +3. A better than average week.

21 hours ago, BeetleJuice said:

Christie discusses the need for federal entitlement reform in Des Moines, Iowa.

Christie discusses prison reform in New Hampshire.

Christie releases advertisement titled, "Telling it Like it is" in Iowa. 

 

Event One Roll: 2. A very weak event and message.

Event Two Roll: 6. A better than average message.

Event Three Roll: 3. The ad is not well received.

Overall: -4. A weak week.

18 hours ago, Fbarbarossa said:

Trump gives a rally on immigration in Des Moines

Trump speaks about tariffs in Concord, New Hampshire

Trump releases a national ad about his strengths and the other candidates weaknesses

Event Roll One: 5. An average rally.

Event Roll Two: 7. A strong message.

Event Roll Three: 1! The ad is poorly put together and is mocked online!(Negative Viral)

Overall: -2. Not the best week.

9 hours ago, CentristGuy said:

Ted Cruz holds a rally on Christian Values in Des Moines.

Ted Cruz Releases an Ad in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, highlighting his Conservative Credentials. 

Ted Cruz speaks about the Danger of losing the GE if Trump is nominated in New Hampshire. 

Event One Roll: 1! Cruz is forced to leave the stage as pro-choice activists packed to rally to heckle him down!(Negative Viral)

Event Two Roll: 1!(Sorry?) The ad is poorly put together and the audio quality is so poor no one can understand it.(Negative Viral)

Event Three Roll: 8. A strong message in New Hampshire.

Overall: -5. A very poor week.

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 @Fbarbarossa @CentristGuy @Hestia11 @ALiteralNeoliberal @Cenzonico @BeetleJuice @Reagan04 @buenoboss @WVProgressive

January 25th Race Updates/Polling:

 

Timeline: This turn will last until tomorrow morning EST to allow room for everyone to post. In-RP it will last from January 25th to February 1st(Iowa)

 

News Updates: This week saw the race heat up in the leadup to Iowa as Marco Rubio rides off a wave of media coverage and strong campaigning to a surge as of late. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz experienced a series of viral moments over the week, not grabbing attention in a good way, but instead in a mocking way, as his campaign suffered a series of blunders. Trump also had an unextraordinary week, leading to doubt over what the field will develop into heading into Iowa, as both frontrunners stumble. Along with that, interest and confusion are both spreading over Ben Carson's seeming focus on South Carolina, a focus which though allowing for him to find strength in the state is raising eyebrows as Iowa nears. In other news, with Cruz's decline, in New Hampshire at least Carly Fiorina is beginning to gather serious support and momentum as she moves upward in the race.

 

RCP National Polling Average:

Trump: 34.0% 

Cruz: 17.6% 

Rubio: 13.9% 

Carson: 9.3%

Bush: 5.0% 

Fiorina: 3.4% 

Christie: 3.2%

Kasich: 2.2%

Paul: 2.1%

Undecided: 9.3%

 

RCP Iowa Polling Average:

Trump: 27.4%

Cruz: 25.0%

Rubio: 15.4%

Carson: 8.0%

Bush: 4.7%

Christie: 3.9%

Paul: 3.4%

Kasich: 2.0%

Fiorina: 2.0%

Undecided: 8.2%

 

RCP New Hampshire Polling Average:

Trump: 29.8%

Rubio: 14.3%

Kasich: 11.3%

Cruz: 11.1%

Bush: 8.9%

Christie: 8.2%

Fiorina: 6.1%

Paul: 3.8%

Carson: 3.0%

Undecided: 3.5%

 

RCP South Carolina Polling Average:

Trump: 33.9%

Cruz: 19.0%

Rubio: 13.7%

Carson: 10.2%

Bush: 9.2%

Fiorina: 3.5%

Paul: 3.3%

Christie: 2.7%

Kasich: 2.0%

Undecided: 2.5%

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1. Ben Carson talks about how his experience in the medical field makes him the best candidate for healthcare, at a town hall in Greenville, SC

2. Carson discusses his pro life stance, and his belief that Roe v. Wade should be overturned, at a rally in Rock Hill, SC

3. Carson tours rural South Carolina, touting his support for a flat tax,

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1. Rubio tours Ames, Iowa, and highlights the need to work with our allies abroad and stand with them.

2. Rubio visits the hispanic community in Denison, Iowa, and touts his work with that community.

3. Rubio ends the day in Nevada, where he spends the day meeting locals. 

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Jeb Bush campaigns in Manchester, New Hampshire where he talks about the need to elect a principled conservative leader.

Jeb Bush campaigns in Minneapolis, Minnesota about investing into law enforcement and fighting crime. 

The Bush campaign releases a TV ad about Bush's plan for an better economy for the 21st century. (targeting Iowa)

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Donald Trump holds a rally in New York on corruption is Washington

Donald Trump launches an ad campaign in Iowa which highlights his campaign promises

Donald Trump visits New Hampshire and gives speech on why he is the only candidate who is brave enough to actually change things

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Rand Paul talks about Marijuana decriminalization in Concord, New Hampshire

Paul releases a radio ad talking about his tax reduction plan

Rand Paul talks about his non interventionist foreign policy to college students in Iowa

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Carly talks about national security in Bedford, New Hampshire

Carly addresses the Opioid Crisis in Exeter, New Hampshire

The Fiorina campaign releases an ad about a woman's story from secretary to CEO of one of the largest tech companies in the world in New Hampshire

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Cruz barnstorms across Rural Iowa. 

Cruz attacks Trump in Cedar Rapids saying "Trump will wipe out all the gains our party made in 2014."

Cruz launches an Ad in Iowa talking about lower taxes and less Government. 

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7 hours ago, ALiteralNeoliberal said:

1. Ben Carson talks about how his experience in the medical field makes him the best candidate for healthcare, at a town hall in Greenville, SC

2. Carson discusses his pro life stance, and his belief that Roe v. Wade should be overturned, at a rally in Rock Hill, SC

3. Carson tours rural South Carolina, touting his support for a flat tax,

Event Roll One: 2. Low turnout and low-energy.

Event Two Roll: 8. A strong rally with high turnout.

Event Three Roll: 9. A strong tour.

Overall: +4. A strong week.

7 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

1. Rubio tours Ames, Iowa, and highlights the need to work with our allies abroad and stand with them.

2. Rubio visits the hispanic community in Denison, Iowa, and touts his work with that community.

3. Rubio ends the day in Nevada, where he spends the day meeting locals. 

Event Roll One: 10! A strong and energetic tour!(Viral)

Event Roll Two: 10(Help)! An electric visit!(Viral)

Event Roll Three: 5. An average day in Nevada.

Overall: +10. A strong week. Help. Help me.

6 hours ago, Cenzonico said:

Jeb Bush campaigns in Manchester, New Hampshire where he talks about the need to elect a principled conservative leader.

Jeb Bush campaigns in Minneapolis, Minnesota about investing into law enforcement and fighting crime. 

The Bush campaign releases a TV ad about Bush's plan for an better economy for the 21st century. (targeting Iowa)

Event Roll One: 2. A very weak message with few to hear it.

Event Roll Two: 3. A bad event.

Event Roll Three: 1! The ad starts saying, "Jeb Bush, former President of Florida."(Negative Viral)

Overall: -10. Jeb's power appears to be hiding for now. It'll show itself... soon...

5 hours ago, BeetleJuice said:

Christie campaigns in Iowa meeting with farmers. 

Christie campaigns in New Hampshire meeting with unions.

Christie releases a tv ad that focuses on uniting Americans (targeting Iowa)

Event Roll One: 8. A strong campaign event.

Event Roll Two: 4. A worse than average time in New Hampshire.

Event Roll Two: 7. A strong ad.

Overall: +4. Strong week.

2 hours ago, Fbarbarossa said:

Donald Trump holds a rally in New York on corruption is Washington

Donald Trump launches an ad campaign in Iowa which highlights his campaign promises

Donald Trump visits New Hampshire and gives speech on why he is the only candidate who is brave enough to actually change things

Event Roll One: 8. A strong day in his home state.

Event Roll Two: 1! The ad bombs and is mocked online!(Negative Viral)

Event Roll Three: 8. A strong visit.

Overall: +2. A better than average week.

1 hour ago, WVProgressive said:

Rand Paul talks about Marijuana decriminalization in Concord, New Hampshire

Paul releases a radio ad talking about his tax reduction plan

Rand Paul talks about his non interventionist foreign policy to college students in Iowa

Event Roll One: 4. A worse than average event.

Event Roll Two: 2. A weak ad.

Event Roll Three: 6. A better than average message.

Overall: -3. Not the best week.

1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

Carly talks about national security in Bedford, New Hampshire

Carly addresses the Opioid Crisis in Exeter, New Hampshire

The Fiorina campaign releases an ad about a woman's story from secretary to CEO of one of the largest tech companies in the world in New Hampshire

Event Roll One: 6. A strong message and event.

Event Two Roll: 8. A strong event.

Event Three Roll: 3. A weak ad.
Overall: +2. Not a bad week.

59 minutes ago, CentristGuy said:

Cruz barnstorms across Rural Iowa. 

Cruz attacks Trump in Cedar Rapids saying "Trump will wipe out all the gains our party made in 2014."

Cruz launches an Ad in Iowa talking about lower taxes and less Government. 

Event One Roll: 7. A strong tour.

Event Two Roll: 3. A rather ineffective attack.

Event Three Roll: 2. A poorly put together ad.

Overall: -3. Not the best week.

43 minutes ago, buenoboss said:

John Kasich tours rural New Hampshire 

John Kasich launches a ad campaign on his blue collar roots in New Hampshire 

John Kasich has a town hall in Concord

Event One Roll: 9. A strong tour.

Event Two Roll: 6. A better than average ad.

Event Three Roll: 7. A strong town hall.

Overall: +7. Kasich is strong this week.

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 @Fbarbarossa @CentristGuy @Hestia11 @ALiteralNeoliberal @Cenzonico @BeetleJuice @Reagan04 @buenoboss @WVProgressive

Iowa Debate Scores And Media Reaction(Scored 1-10):

Rubio: 9. Rubio was able to give a series of strong answers throughout the night, focusing on and creating a message of compassionate conservatism attracting moderates and even some conservatives to his campaign. There was an awkward moment with him and Kasich after Kasich attempted to claim Rubio and him weren't conservatives, but Rubio's charm and oratory skills quickly salvaged the moment.

Fiorina: 8. Fiorina was able to give strong answers throughout the night, giving passionate and well built statements on a series of issues. However, her crowning moment was discussing drug laws, as she was able to provide libertarian arguments on states' rights, conservative arguments on fighting drugs and ending the flow of drugs into the US, and a mother's arguments as she talked about her own personal relationship to losing her child to drug addiction. A strong debate.

Rand Paul: 7. A strong performance by Paul as he gave strong answers to a series of questions, looking at things from a libertarian perspective and energizing his base, though he failed to stand out too often.

Chris Christie: 6. Chris gave strong attacks and answers, and was overall strong throughout the night when he was speaking, which wasn't often.

Jeb Bush: 6. A better than average performance with strong answers, though he faded into the background.

Carson: 5. Nothing too interesting.

Cruz: 4. Would've have been far better, if not for a serious gaffe discussing Carly Fiorina's daughter's death.

John Kasich: 3. Kasich seemed awkward on stage, making strange comments attacking conservatism, and using those statements to make strange comments towards Rubio. He seemed stilted on stage, and didn't give many strong answers.

Trump: 3(D10 Roll). Despite not being there, Trump suffered thanks to relentless attacks from the candidates on stage and Iowa voters not trusting someone who would abandon the debate stage like that.

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 @Fbarbarossa @CentristGuy @Hestia11 @ALiteralNeoliberal @Cenzonico @BeetleJuice @Reagan04 @buenoboss @WVProgressive

Iowa Caucus Results:


Turnout: 198,872 Votes


Donald Trump: 25.98% - 51,671 Votes - 8 delegates


Marco Rubio: 25.64% - 50,991 Votes - 8 delegates


Ted Cruz: 25.20% - 50,113 Votes - 8 delegates


Ben Carson: 6.75% - 13,421 Votes - 2 delegates


Chris Christie: 4.77% - 9,491 Votes - 1 delegate


Jeb Bush: 3.77% - 7,498 Votes - 1 delegate


Rand Paul: 3.58% - 7,111 Votes - 1 delegate


Carly Fiorina: 3.13% - 6,231 Votes - 1 delegate


John Kasich: 1.18% -  2,345 Votes

 

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