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State of the Race: 56 Days Left


56 Day Poll  

21 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Do you support the idea of Labor Day?

    • Yes, I proudly support the labor movement and its history.
    • Yes, but only because it is a day off and not for the labor movement, which I have serious issues with.
    • No, the labor movement is counter to American values, its history is infested with socialists, communists, anarchists, internationalists, Jews, illegal immigrants, etc. It should be replaced with a different holiday.
      0
  3. 3. If polls are accurate in 2020, how will it change your mind on polling in 2024?

    • I'll regain my belief that polling is more accurate than not and that 2016 was a strange outlier.
    • I'll maintain that the 2016 polling is more accurate of the limitations of polling despite the relative accuracy of the polls in about every other election in US history aside from 1948.
    • I think the 2016 polls were actually quite accurate. It's just that Trump won within the margin of victory in 5 states by sheer luck or outside intervention.
    • While I do think 2016 was an off year for pollsters, I'll still find it hard to ever trust polls again, even if 2020 is spot on.
  4. 4. If Biden beats Trump with 350 EVs and +7% in the PV, how does the GOP respond to Trump after his defeat?

    • They aggressively distance themselves from him as if he had been a terrorist that hijacked their plane.
    • They distance themselves but avoid doing anything that might cost them the support of his base.
    • They continue to treat Trump as one of their party leaders and might even suggest that he run again in 2024
      0
    • Trump maintains firm control over the party and is the unquestioned leader.
      0


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Biden pretty much runs the tables. Trump's only good figure is that the direction of the country poll is now at only -37.6, the best since Covid began. 

In 2016 at this time, Trump was leading +3 vs. Clinton in the polls. Biden is doing +10.5 better than Clinton was. 

Nate Silver suggests that Biden's consistently high polling % probably means that he is winning back 40% of 2012 Obama-Biden voters who had voted Trump, 3rd party, or not voted in 2016. This probably accounts for why Wisconsin is almost Safe Democrat in state polling. If this is true, Trump cannot win. 

Map remains unchanged from last update:

Categories 56 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.5 (+0.1) Biden 7.1 Biden +8
AZ avg Biden 4.6 (0) Biden 4.1 Biden +2.9
FL avg Biden 2.8 (0) Biden 4.3 Biden +7.6
GA avg Trump 1.4 (0) Trump 0.6 Trump +1.3
IA avg Trump 1.6 (0) Trump 1.8 Trump +0.3
MI Avg Biden 6.7 (+0.2) Biden 7.1 Biden +7.4
MN avg Biden 6.3 (+0.4) Biden 5.9 Biden +11.1
MO avg Trump 6.5 (0) Trump 7.5 Trump 5.5
NV avg Biden 6.5 (+0.1) Biden 6.3 Biden +6.7
NH Avg Biden 8.2 (+0.1) Biden 8.0 Biden +7.5
NC avg Biden 1.8 (0) Biden 1.4 Biden +2.2
OH avg Trump 1.8 (-0.1) Trump 1.8 Biden +2.1
PA Avg Biden 4.5 (+0.4) Biden 4.8 Biden +6.8
SC avg Trump 6.7 (0) Trump 6.6 Trump 6.6
TX avg Trump 1.0 (-0.5) Trump 1.6 Tie 0.0
WI Avg Biden 7.3 (+0.1) Biden 6.2 Biden +7.1
Trump Approval 43.3 (-0.3) 43.3 40.2
Trump Disapproval 52.6 (+0.4) 53.1 55.7
Favorability Biden 15.3 (-0.1) Biden 13.2 Biden +11.7
Direction of the Country -37.6 (+1.8) -42.5 -45.5
Generic Ballot Dem 6.9 (+0.1) Dem 6.0 (0) Democrats +8.6
Betting Markets Biden 52.8 (+2.3) Biden 50.3 Biden 60.7
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton -3    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +10.5    

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I think this election is really going to be interesting tbh. If Trump can't regain the moderates and prevent Biden from getting those former Obama voters... which his best shot is to do through debates... his best shot is honestly going to be going for a 269-269, or a razor thin 270-268 kind of deal in the EC. Wisconsin or Pennsylvania will be his best bet. He's pulled ad funding out of Michigan and maybe Pennsylvania iirc... if the polls are truly accurate I'd say he focuses on only 1 upper Rust Belt state, and put the rest in holding the old strongholds of Georgia, Texas, Arizona. And of course, gotta keep NC and Florida as well. 

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Is question two designed to route out anti-semites so they can be banned from the forum? Or are we suggesting that everyone who isn’t in favour of labour day is a racist?

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14 hours ago, Actinguy said:

Question 2 gives three extreme responses.  Would prefer a "I don't really care one way or the other" option so I could still answer the other questions

Coming from a family with a unionized tradesmen father, and being a supporter of the New Democratic Party, the Canadian ideologically-Social Democratic Party (the ideology Bernie Sander and Elizabeth Warren fall under, too - they are NOT Communists, Hard Socialists, or other Far-Left Extremists), and knowing about the common exploitation, cheating, and screwing over, on a regular basis, of the Working Class to big corporations can drive up empty, and undeserved, profit margins on their backs, and the clawing back of labour laws and rights in many states - especially under repugnantly-named deceptive legislation titles as "right-to-work," laws), I take a dim view of those who "I don't really care one way or the other" about the long hard struggle for labour laws and rights, and decent wages and working conditions, against heartless captains of industry. It has been JUST as much of an uphill, valiant, and needed struggle as that against racism, sexism, and anti-LGBTQ sentiment, in case you were unaware - and the other struggles got their first lasting steps up by the initial successes of the labour movement.

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5 hours ago, Patine said:

Coming from a family with a unionized tradesmen father, and being a supporter of the New Democratic Party, the Canadian ideologically-Social Democratic Party (the ideology Bernie Sander and Elizabeth Warren fall under, too - they are NOT Communists, Hard Socialists, or other Far-Left Extremists), and knowing about the common exploitation, cheating, and screwing over, on a regular basis, of the Working Class to big corporations can drive up empty, and undeserved, profit margins on their backs, and the clawing back of labour laws and rights in many states - especially under repugnantly-named deceptive legislation titles as "right-to-work," laws), I take a dim view of those who "I don't really care one way or the other" about the long hard struggle for labour laws and rights, and decent wages and working conditions, against heartless captains of industry. It has been JUST as much of an uphill, valiant, and needed struggle as that against racism, sexism, and anti-LGBTQ sentiment, in case you were unaware - and the other struggles got their first lasting steps up by the initial successes of the labour movement.

That's not what he was saying. And as someone who moans about a two-party system more than any other you should appreciate that he asked for a third, non-absolute choice.

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17 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

That's not what he was saying. And as someone who moans about a two-party system more than any other you should appreciate that he asked for a third, non-absolute choice.

He wanted a choice to show complete apathy to the whole affair. THAT'S what I was responding to.

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

He wanted a choice to show complete apathy to the whole affair. THAT'S what I was responding to.

I wanted a choice to say I had not researched the matter thoroughly enough to take one of these strong positions:

"I proudly support the labor movement and its history" -- I certainly support the little bit I am aware of, such as minimum wages, five day work weeks, child labor laws.  But I simply have not studied the labor movement (and certainly not its history) enough to call myself a PROUD member.  There may be parts of it that I wouldn't be proud of at all, I don't know, because I don't know enough about it.

"Yes, but only because it is a day off and not for the labor movement, which I have serious issues with." - Again, I can't have serious issues with something that I don't know enough about first.

"the labor movement is counter to American values, its history is infested with socialists, communists, anarchists, internationalists, Jews, illegal immigrants, etc. It should be replaced with a different holiday" -- I'm sure you can agree that that's an extreme position without me needing to explain it to you.

I'm not going to pretend to be a proud supporter, to have serious issues, or to say something is counter to American values if I don't have first hand knowledge of something and haven't invested the time to research it yet.  

There was a similar question last week about Antifa that was missing a "I don't really understand what Antifa is" or even "I have never heard of that word before" option.

It figures that the one time I question the wording of a survey is the one time in the history of this forum that you are suddenly in love with the options we've been given in a survey.  ;c)

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