State of the Race: 59 Days Left

[vcczar 1,224]

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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Better day for Biden overall, but Trump sees a huge shift in a key state: great poll for Trump in FL. Biden gets a great poll in PA. 

FL flips from lean B to lean R. PA goes from lean B to likely B.

Categories	59 Days Left	A Week Ago	100 Days Left
Gen Avg	Biden 7.4 (+0.1)	Biden -1.7	Biden -0.6
AZ avg	Biden 4.6 (0)	Biden +0.3	Biden +1.7
FL avg	Biden 2.8 (-1.3)	Biden -2.8	Biden -4.8
GA avg	Trump 1.4 (-0.1)	Trump +1.0	Trump +0.1
IA avg	Trump 1.6 (-0.2)	Trump +0.6	Trump +1.3
MI Avg	Biden 6.5 (+0.1)	Biden -0.7	Biden -0.9
MN avg	Biden 5.9 (-0.1)	Biden +0.2	Biden -5.2
MO avg	Trump 6.5 (0)	Trump +1.4	Trump +1.0
NV avg	Biden 6.4 (0)	Biden +1.5	Biden +0.3
NH Avg	Biden 8.1 (+0.2)	Biden -1.0	Biden +0.6
NC avg	Biden 1.8 (+0.2)	Biden 0	Biden -0.4
OH avg	Trump 1.9 (0)	Trump +1.6	Trump +4.0
PA Avg	Biden 4.1 (+0.7)	Biden -1.6	Biden +6.8
SC avg	Trump 6.7 (0)	Trump +0.7	Trump +0.1
TX avg	Biden 1.5 (0)	Trump +0.5	Trump +1.5
WI Avg	Biden 7.2 (+0.1)	Biden +1.0	Biden +0.1
Trump Approval	43.6 (+0.1)	1.4	3.4
Trump Disapproval	52.2 (-0.1)	-1.8	-3.5
Favorability	Biden 15.4 (0)	2.2	3.3
Direction of the Country	-39.4 (0)	3.1	6.1
Generic Ballot	Dem 6.8 (0)	Dem +0.8	Dem -1.8
Betting Markets	Biden 50.5 (+0.2)	Biden -2.3	Biden -10.2
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE	Clinton +2
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls	Biden +5.4

[admin_270 845]

Biden's buffer down to 36. Is this the lowest number for that yet?

If Trump flips NC (just visited there - definitely a target), that would put it at 21. Would still need to pick up 2 more regions, perhaps even 3.

[vcczar 1,224]

6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Biden's buffer down to 36. Is this the lowest number for that yet?

If Trump flips NC (just visited there - definitely a target), that would put it at 21. Would still need to pick up 2 more regions, perhaps even 3.

Yeah. The buffer is down. FL poll might be an outlier. Might flip back tomorrow. 

[vcczar 1,224]

For #5 I do believe the report undermines Trump’s message, but I think those that believe they are mostly not peaceful are the type that can’t be moved by facts or reason. 

[ThePotatoWalrus 471]

Accidentally clicked undermines Biden when I meant undermines Trump. Ignore that.

[billay 163]

Underemployment is falling below 10 well see how COVID numbers do after labor day though I suspect it could be ugly.

Trump got a bump from the convention,  the whole law and order thing might have worked for a week but numbers are going back to what they were.

So the conclusion doesnt change. Trump will need good debate performances, unemployment numbers and some indication COVID numbers are going down or a vaccine to win.