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State of the Race: 59 Days Left


59 Day Poll  

21 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Is the anti-fascist political movement known as Antifa a terrorist organization?

  3. 3. Do you think Donald Trump is a traitor?

  4. 4. Who is cumulatively more ethical, moral, and trustworthy?

  5. 5. A report was released that shows that 90% of the Black Lives Matter protests were/are peaceful. Click all that applies below.

    • This information undermines Trump's messaging.
    • This information undermines Biden's messaging.
    • This information helps Trump.
    • This information helps Biden.
    • This information is useless because only ideological propaganda is effective.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Better day for Biden overall, but Trump sees a huge shift in a key state: great poll for Trump in FL. Biden gets a great poll in PA. 

FL flips from lean B to lean R. PA goes from lean B to likely B.

Categories 59 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.4 (+0.1) Biden -1.7 Biden -0.6
AZ avg Biden 4.6 (0) Biden +0.3 Biden +1.7
FL avg Biden 2.8 (-1.3) Biden -2.8 Biden -4.8
GA avg Trump 1.4 (-0.1) Trump +1.0 Trump +0.1
IA avg Trump 1.6 (-0.2) Trump +0.6 Trump +1.3
MI Avg Biden 6.5 (+0.1) Biden -0.7 Biden -0.9
MN avg Biden 5.9 (-0.1) Biden +0.2 Biden -5.2
MO avg Trump 6.5 (0) Trump +1.4 Trump +1.0
NV avg Biden 6.4 (0) Biden +1.5 Biden +0.3
NH Avg Biden 8.1 (+0.2) Biden -1.0 Biden +0.6
NC avg Biden 1.8 (+0.2) Biden 0 Biden -0.4
OH avg Trump 1.9 (0) Trump +1.6 Trump +4.0
PA Avg Biden 4.1 (+0.7) Biden -1.6 Biden +6.8
SC avg Trump 6.7 (0) Trump +0.7 Trump +0.1
TX avg Biden 1.5 (0) Trump +0.5 Trump +1.5
WI Avg Biden 7.2 (+0.1) Biden +1.0 Biden +0.1
Trump Approval 43.6 (+0.1) 1.4 3.4
Trump Disapproval 52.2 (-0.1) -1.8 -3.5
Favorability Biden 15.4 (0) 2.2 3.3
Direction of the Country -39.4 (0) 3.1 6.1
Generic Ballot Dem 6.8 (0) Dem +0.8 Dem -1.8
Betting Markets Biden 50.5 (+0.2) Biden -2.3 Biden -10.2
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +2    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +5.4    

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6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Biden's buffer down to 36. Is this the lowest number for that yet?

If Trump flips NC (just visited there - definitely a target), that would put it at 21. Would still need to pick up 2 more regions, perhaps even 3.

Yeah. The buffer is down. FL poll might be an outlier. Might flip back tomorrow. 

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For #5 I do believe the report undermines Trump’s message, but I think those that believe they are mostly not peaceful are the type that can’t be moved by facts or reason. 

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Underemployment is falling below 10 well see how COVID numbers do after labor day though I suspect it could be ugly.

Trump got a bump from the convention,  the whole law and order thing might have worked for a week but numbers are going back to what they were.

So the conclusion doesnt change. Trump will need good debate performances, unemployment numbers and some indication COVID numbers are going down or a vaccine to win. 

 

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