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State of the Race: 60 Days Left


60 Day Poll  

21 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. The focal point for the last week has been events in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Several WI polls were released giving Biden a huge +1.0 boost in this state. Why do you think this is the case?

    • Biden is showing better leadership than Trump regarding Kenosha.
    • Biden is out strategizing Trump in Wisconsin.
      0
    • General unfavorablility of Trump's term as president is having an effect on voters.
    • Biden is seeming like a stronger overall candidate at the moment.
    • The majority of these polls for Wisconsin are probably very inaccurate; FAKE NEWS!
  3. 3. Which is most likely to happen?

    • MN votes Trump in 2020.
    • AZ votes Biden in 2020.
  4. 4. If you voted 3rd party, who would you most likely vote for?

    • Libertarian Party
    • Green Party
    • Constitution Party
    • Kanye West Party
      0
    • Patine
  5. 5. Who do you hope wins 2020 out of the major party nominees, irregardless of who you think will actually win. (note: if dislike both, pick the lesser of two evils).



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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Good day for Biden. Biden gets a big boost in AZ, WI, and NC. Biden's favorability goes up by 2 pts as well. While minuscule, Biden betting odds shift in his favor for the first time in the last 100 days. Generic Dems are moving back up again, getting closer to Blue wave numbers again. 

Trump gets a big boost in PA. The direction of the country has moved out of the negative 40's for the first time in the last 100 Days. This metric might be more important for an incumbent than most polls. It needs to move towards positive during the weeks of early voting and election day.

Trump was leading Clinton in the polls by +1 in 2016. Biden leads Trump +7.3 in 2020.

NC flips from lean R to Lean B.

Categories 60 Days A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.3 (+0.2) Biden -1.8 Biden -0.7
AZ avg Biden 4.6 (+0.6) Biden +0.3 Biden +1.7
FL avg Biden 4.1 (-0.1) Biden -1.5 Biden -3.5
GA avg Trump 1.5 (0) Trump 1.1 Trump -0.2
IA avg Trump 1.8 (-0.1) Trump 0.8 Trump 1.5
MI Avg Biden 6.4 (0) Biden -0.8 Biden -0.8
MN avg Biden 6.0 (+0.1) Biden +0.3 Biden -5.1
MO avg Trump 6.5 (-0.1) Biden 1.6 Trump 1.0
NV avg Biden 6.4 (0) Biden -1.5 Biden -0.3
NH Avg Biden 7.9 (0) Biden 1.2 Biden 0.4
NC avg Biden 1.6 (+0.7) Biden -0.2 Biden -0.6
OH avg Trump 1.9 (-0.1) Trump 1.6 Trump 4.0
PA Avg Biden 3.4 (-0.8) Biden -2.3 Biden -3.4
SC avg Trump 6.7 (-0.1) Trump 0.7 Trump -0.1
TX avg Trump 1.5 (-0.1) Trump 0.5 Trump 1.5
WI Avg Biden 7.1 (+1.0) Biden 0.9 Biden 0
Trump Approval 43.5 (-0.1) 1.2 3.3
Trump Disapproval 52.3 (-0.1) -1.7 -3.4
Favorability Biden 15.4 (+2.2) Biden 13.2 (0) Biden +11.7
Direction of the Country -39.4 (-0.8) -3.1 -6.1
Generic Ballot Dem 6.8 (+0.6) 0.8 -2
Betting Markets Biden 50.3 (+0.1) -2.5 -10.4
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton -1    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden 7.4    

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