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Post-Convention Polls are making little sense


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We are seeing A LOT of polls coming in post-Conventions. We are seeing Biden with +5 to +15 in the PV, and swinging wildly in battleground states as well, generally +3 to +12 in states in which he usually polls +5 to +8. Expect tomorrow's update to look good for Biden, after two strong days for Trump. 

I'm not sure what is accounting for this. Maybe it is just temporary. 

The only consistencies is that Biden is polling higher than Clinton in the PV, and that AZ looks like it will actually go Blue this year. MI and WI seem stronger Blue this year than in 2016. If I had to guess that Trump would defy polls and flip 5 states it would be NC, FL, PA, MI, and MN in this order. MN has had few polls, however. NC and FL just seem more Republican to me than Democrat, so a polling mistake seems possible. PA is the closest to a battleground zone of the former Blue Wall. MI is definitely polling for Democrats, but it has a higher volatility this year than WI, which seems strangely consistently Blue in the polls, despite being what I would call, the deciding state. 

I think one issue is that each presidential election, polling types become more diverse, and new methods are implemented, which is why one has to average the polls and attempt to figure out which are more reliable than others, in general. 

I will say this, if Trump's polls in my spreadsheet look as strong as they have been the last two days, then Biden might need to start worrying. He's had the two types of good days that Trump needs to have about 4 days of every week until election day. 

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