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Why PV polls might matter


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Nate Silver posted this:

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
 

Biden is polling 7.2 vs Trump or 99% currently, according to this rubric. 

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Where do the %s come from?

I don’t know. He just posted this on Twitter. Can’t believe Biden has to win 3% or more of the PV to be the favorite. Clinton won by 2%. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

I don’t know. He just posted this on Twitter.

OK, it's from Silver so I assume it's coming out of his election forecasting engine. He just ran the model with tweaked starting %s and noted how many times Biden wins is my guess.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

OK, it's from Silver so I assume it's coming out of his election forecasting engine. He just ran the model with tweaked starting %s and noted how many times Biden wins is my guess.

Good a guess as any. I know he once suggested that the national polls do capture a National mood that state polls don’t completely capture or something like that. For instance, if someone is polling a tie in Ohio but they are polling consistently a 8pt lead nationally, then there is probably more support in Ohio than the polls suggest. The only rationale I see for this is that urban voters tend to vote like urban voters nationwide, while suburban and even, to a degree, rural voters tend to have more crossover. There’s fewer than 10 cities  of any moderate size that voted Trump. All the hundreds of others voted Clinton. The rural areas and suburban areas were more mixed. For instance, Vermont is almost all rural and very Democrat. 

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