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State of the Race: 61 Days Left


62 Day Poll  

21 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Joseph P. Kennedy III lost in his quest for a US Senate seat last night. What do you think happens to him (check all that applies). He's only 39 years old.

    • He either retires from politics or stays in politics but fades into obscurity.
    • Pres. Biden (or next Dem pres) makes him ambassador to Ireland
    • He tries to return to the US House in 2 years
    • He runs for governor of MA
    • He is appointed to the US Senate when Pres. Biden (or next Dem pres) names Warren to a cabinet position.
    • He runs for US Senate again.
    • He, like Lincoln, will be a former US Rep, failed Senate nominee, who will run for president and win, despite not having held a significant office in over a decade.
    • He is named to a cabinet position.
    • He remains politically significant in some ways, but take a backseat as "The Kennedy" politician to Jack Schlossberg, JFK's 27-year-old politically ambitious grandson.
    • Other
      0
  3. 3. Who is showing early signs of dementia?

    • Both Biden and Trump
    • Just Biden
    • Just Trump
    • Neither do, but they both have the typical aging brain, which leads to more instances of temporary lapse in recall, lack of editing mechanism, decline in overall mental agility.
    • Biden's brain is aging, but Trump's isn't.
    • Trump's brain is aging, but Biden's isn't.
      0
    • Both are mentally in better shape than most politicians and people their age.
      0
  4. 4. Do you think Trump has a personality disorder?

    • No.
    • Yes, but none that could hinder him from being a good person and/or a good president.
    • Yes, and the disorder(s) seriously hinder him from being a good person and/or a good president.
  5. 5. Should both candidate release their tax returns before election day?

    • Yes. It's the kind of transparency an election needs, besides it is routine protocol.
    • Only Biden should.
      0
    • Only Trump should.
      0
    • No, because doing so would cause a candidate to lose support.
      0
    • No, because a candidate should be allowed to keep even potentially damaging things private if they choose to.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Better day for Trump than Biden. Biggest shifts are in GA, PA, and NC for Trump. Biden saw improvement in AZ. 

Montana is very close to being added to this map. Biden has had some polls recently that make this state look closer than usual. 

Trump is at his highest approval since the last 100 days began-- 43.6%, which is still very low for an incumbent. Additionally, the direction of the country is now only in the -40s. 

Only thing going well for Biden is he's still polling a overwhelming lead in both PV and EC, and that Trump is still deeply unfavorable. 

Map changes, NC flips from lean Blue to lean Red. 

Categories 61 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.1 (0) Biden 8.4 (+0.2) Biden +8
AZ avg Biden 4.0 (+0.2) Biden +0.3 Biden +1.1
FL avg Biden 4.2 (-0.1) Biden -0.9 Biden -2.4
GA avg Trump 1.5 (+0.9) Trump +0.7 Trump +0.2
IA avg Trump 1.9 (+0.1) Trump +0.5 Trump +1.6
MI Avg Biden 6.4 (-0.7) Biden -1.2 Biden -1.0
MN avg Biden 5.9 (0) Biden +0.7 Biden -5.2
MO avg Trump 6.6 (-0.9) Trump +1.2 Trump +1.1
NV avg Biden 6.4 (+0.1) Biden -0.7 Biden -0.3
NH Avg Biden 7.9 (-0.1) Biden -0.6 Biden +0.4
NC avg Biden 0.9 (-0.5) Biden -0.5 Biden -1.3
OH avg Trump 2.0 (+0.2) Trump +1.3 Trump +4.1
PA Avg Biden 4.2 (-0.6) Biden -1.1 Biden -2.6
SC avg Trump 6.8 (+0.2) Trump +0.5 Trump +0.2
TX avg Trump 1.6 (0) Trump +0.1 Trump +1.6
WI Avg Biden 6.2 (0) Biden +0.3 Biden -0.9
Trump Approval 43.6 (+0.3) 1.4 3.4
Trump Disapproval 52.4 (+0.7) 1.9 3.3
Favorability Biden 12.8 (-0.4) Biden -0.4 Biden +1.1
Direction of the Country -40.3 (+2.2) 2.2 5.2
Generic Ballot Dem 6.2 (+0.2) Dem +0.2 Dem -2.4
Betting Markets Biden 50.2 (-0.1) Biden 3.5 Biden -10.5
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +1    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +6.1    

XoW2d.png

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I struggled with question 3.  I don't believe that either has dementia.  Biden has always thought faster than he could speak, which pared with the physical and mental effort it takes to overcome a stutter, has led to some gaffes.  Donald Trump just says whatever stupid thing springs to his mind because he's spent his entire life surrounded by "Yes" men and never having to face a consequence for a single action.  After almost 80 years of living that kind of life, he has neither the capacity nor the desire to make any effort at all.  Neither of those are dementia, but they are also not equally-minded.

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Following the research about telephone bias, there's this

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/jpmorgan-says-prepare-for-rising-chance-trump-wins-second-term

"People giving inaccurate answers could artificially skew polls in favor of Biden by 5%-6%, he added."

Not clear if Kolanovic's reasoning on this is based on the same research previously cited on this forum, or other work.

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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Following the research about telephone bias, there's this

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/jpmorgan-says-prepare-for-rising-chance-trump-wins-second-term

"People giving inaccurate answers could artificially skew polls in favor of Biden by 5%-6%, he added."

Not clear if Kolanovic's reasoning on this is based on the same research previously cited on this blog, or other work.

Yeah the reasoning is important. 

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10 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Following the research about telephone bias, there's this

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/jpmorgan-says-prepare-for-rising-chance-trump-wins-second-term

"People giving inaccurate answers could artificially skew polls in favor of Biden by 5%-6%, he added."

Not clear if Kolanovic's reasoning on this is based on the same research previously cited on this blog, or other work.

I'm still really confused why people are saying it's a "rising chance". Earlier in the year, Trump was favored in the betting markets for a very consistent amount of time. Only when Biden truly began to dominate the polls did he lurch ahead in that metric. 

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How much y'all wanna bet Biden conveniently "contracts coronavirus" a week before the debates and quarantines for all three? If you could bet on that I would throw at least $500 on it.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

How much y'all wanna bet Biden conveniently "contracts coronavirus" a week before the debates and quarantines for all three? If you could bet on that I would throw at least $500 on it.

No I really don't think that'll happen. In any case, Trump made a huge mistake by acting like Biden won't show up to the debates, or if he does saying that Biden will do really poorly. Now, as long as Biden doesn't make some huge, career-ending gaffe, Biden will almost certainly be perceived as exceeding expectations in the debates. 

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10 minutes ago, MishFox said:

No I really don't think that'll happen. In any case, Trump made a huge mistake by acting like Biden won't show up to the debates, or if he does saying that Biden will do really poorly. Now, as long as Biden doesn't make some huge, career-ending gaffe, Biden will almost certainly be perceived as exceeding expectations in the debates. 

Similar to W. Bush in 2000.

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2 hours ago, MishFox said:

No I really don't think that'll happen. In any case, Trump made a huge mistake by acting like Biden won't show up to the debates, or if he does saying that Biden will do really poorly. Now, as long as Biden doesn't make some huge, career-ending gaffe, Biden will almost certainly be perceived as exceeding expectations in the debates. 

Biden will be sweating bullets trying not to yell the n word during the debate. His dementia brain is in the 60s. Lol jk.

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