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What the hell is going on with the polls?


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Morning Consultant one of the better ones has Biden up Nationally 51-43. In AZ they have Biden up 52-42. Aug 16th they had AZ 47-45 Trump.

Emerson has the national poll 49-47 Biden.

Is AZ bucking the trend here or is that just a bad poll?

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Pollsters trying to learn from 2016 but failing.

Pollsters also trying to gauge proper turnout and samples. It's hard when most votes this year are expected to be by mail. Lots of variables to voting by mail and it affects minorities and democrats a lot more, e.g. having to send it off two weeks before, ballots not arriving, them arriving and you lose it, etc etc etc. 

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12 hours ago, billay said:

Morning Consultant one of the better ones has Biden up Nationally 51-43. In AZ they have Biden up 52-42. Aug 16th they had AZ 47-45 Trump.

Emerson has the national poll 49-47 Biden.

Is AZ bucking the trend here or is that just a bad poll?

Never put emphasis on one poll, or even two.  You're looking for a general consensus.  You also don't want to put too much emphasis on the general consensus, because then you're possibly falling into a trap of groupthink.

I realize those two pieces of guidance completely contradict each other.

Welcome to polling!

;c)

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