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State of the Race: 62 Days Left


62 Day Poll  

19 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Who is a better speaker?

  3. 3. Who is in better physical shape?

  4. 4. Who is in better mental shape?

  5. 5. Who is a better leader?



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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Good GE election poll for Trump. The usually reliable Emerson poll (A grade pollster) shows a tighter race with Biden at +4; however, the same poll strangely has Biden up +8 among independents, which sort of doesn't make sense. 

Lots of state polls, with states going up/down for both candidates. 

Only map change is that OH goes from leans Red to Likely Red. 

Overall, Trump will need several days like this a week to take the lead in the polls. Trump gets polling days like this only once every two weeks-- note: some big shifts in the states. Despite this, Biden also had some gains in states Trump needs to win. 

Clinton was tied with Trump in the polls in 2016 at this time. 

Categories 62 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.1 (-0.9) Biden 8.2 (-1.3) Biden -0.9
AZ avg Biden 4.1 (+0.3) Biden +0.4 Biden +1.2
FL avg Biden 4.3 (-0.9) Biden -0.8 Biden -3.3
GA avg Trump 0.6 (-0.1) Trump -0.2 Trump -0.7
IA avg Trump 1.8 (+0.5) Trump +0.4 Trump +1.5
MI Avg Biden 7.1 (+0.2) Biden -0.5 Biden -0.3
MN avg Biden 5.9 (+0.2) Biden +0.8 Biden -5.2
MO avg Trump 7.5 (+0.5) Trump +2.1 Trump +2.0
NV avg Biden 6.3 (-1.0) Biden -0.7 Biden -0.4
NH Avg Biden 8.0 (-0.7) Biden -0.5 Biden +0.5
NC avg Biden 1.4 (-0.1) Biden 0 Biden -0.8
OH avg Trump 1.8 (+1.2) Trump +1.1 Trump +3.9
PA Avg Biden 4.8 (-0.6) Biden -0.7 Biden -2.0
SC avg Trump 6.6 (+0.4) Trump +0.3 Trump 0
TX avg Trump 1.6 (+0.2) Trump 0 Trump +1.6
WI Avg Biden 6.2 (+0.2) Biden +0.4 Biden -0.9
Trump Approval 43.3 (+1.2) 1.1 3.1
Trump Disapproval 53.1 (-1.0) -1.1 -2.7
Favorability Biden 13.2 (0) Biden 0 Biden +1.5
Direction of the Country -42.5 (0) -0.3 3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.0 (0) Dem 0 Dem -2.6
Betting Markets Biden 50.3 (-0.8) BIden -4.0 Biden -10.4
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +0    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +7.1    

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I was torn on "better speaker".

Who is a more energetic speaker who can really play to his crowd?  Donald Trump.

Who can actually string three sentences together more often than not, with a coherent message?  Joe Biden.

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Just now, Jayavarman said:

Interesting analysis on how Minnesota is trending Republican.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/

I read that the other day! I do think Minnesota is one of the likeliest to begin to tilt red, but I think it'll resemble Iowa since Minneapolis-St. Paul will still carry a lot of weight. It'll be a swing state though for sure, not just solid blue.

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Did you see the Morning Consult polls today? Good stuff for Joe.

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3 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Did you see the Morning Consult polls today? Good stuff for Joe.

Those are included. Not all good for Biden though. Then blue in the daily column is mostly due to the helpful Morning Consult polls. 

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6 hours ago, Actinguy said:

Who can actually string three sentences together more often than not, with a coherent message?  Joe Biden.

Neither of them can do this lol

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