State of the Race: 62 Days Left

[vcczar 1,224]

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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Good GE election poll for Trump. The usually reliable Emerson poll (A grade pollster) shows a tighter race with Biden at +4; however, the same poll strangely has Biden up +8 among independents, which sort of doesn't make sense. 

Lots of state polls, with states going up/down for both candidates. 

Only map change is that OH goes from leans Red to Likely Red. 

Overall, Trump will need several days like this a week to take the lead in the polls. Trump gets polling days like this only once every two weeks-- note: some big shifts in the states. Despite this, Biden also had some gains in states Trump needs to win. 

Clinton was tied with Trump in the polls in 2016 at this time. 

Categories	62 Days Left	A Week Ago	100 Days Left
Gen Avg	Biden 7.1 (-0.9)	Biden 8.2 (-1.3)	Biden -0.9
AZ avg	Biden 4.1 (+0.3)	Biden +0.4	Biden +1.2
FL avg	Biden 4.3 (-0.9)	Biden -0.8	Biden -3.3
GA avg	Trump 0.6 (-0.1)	Trump -0.2	Trump -0.7
IA avg	Trump 1.8 (+0.5)	Trump +0.4	Trump +1.5
MI Avg	Biden 7.1 (+0.2)	Biden -0.5	Biden -0.3
MN avg	Biden 5.9 (+0.2)	Biden +0.8	Biden -5.2
MO avg	Trump 7.5 (+0.5)	Trump +2.1	Trump +2.0
NV avg	Biden 6.3 (-1.0)	Biden -0.7	Biden -0.4
NH Avg	Biden 8.0 (-0.7)	Biden -0.5	Biden +0.5
NC avg	Biden 1.4 (-0.1)	Biden 0	Biden -0.8
OH avg	Trump 1.8 (+1.2)	Trump +1.1	Trump +3.9
PA Avg	Biden 4.8 (-0.6)	Biden -0.7	Biden -2.0
SC avg	Trump 6.6 (+0.4)	Trump +0.3	Trump 0
TX avg	Trump 1.6 (+0.2)	Trump 0	Trump +1.6
WI Avg	Biden 6.2 (+0.2)	Biden +0.4	Biden -0.9
Trump Approval	43.3 (+1.2)	1.1	3.1
Trump Disapproval	53.1 (-1.0)	-1.1	-2.7
Favorability	Biden 13.2 (0)	Biden 0	Biden +1.5
Direction of the Country	-42.5 (0)	-0.3	3
Generic Ballot	Dem 6.0 (0)	Dem 0	Dem -2.6
Betting Markets	Biden 50.3 (-0.8)	BIden -4.0	Biden -10.4
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE	Clinton +0
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls	Biden +7.1

[Actinguy 862]

I was torn on "better speaker".

Who is a more energetic speaker who can really play to his crowd?  Donald Trump.

Who can actually string three sentences together more often than not, with a coherent message?  Joe Biden.

[admin_270 845]

1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

Who can actually string three sentences together more often than not, with a coherent message?  Joe Biden.

Ah, the standards.

[Actinguy 862]

26 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ah, the standards.

I mean, this is where the bar is with Trump.

I’m not the one that put it...or him...there.

[Jayavarman 129]

Interesting analysis on how Minnesota is trending Republican.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/

[Hestia11 572]

Just now, Jayavarman said:

Interesting analysis on how Minnesota is trending Republican.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/

I read that the other day! I do think Minnesota is one of the likeliest to begin to tilt red, but I think it'll resemble Iowa since Minneapolis-St. Paul will still carry a lot of weight. It'll be a swing state though for sure, not just solid blue.

[Reagan04 658]

Did you see the Morning Consult polls today? Good stuff for Joe.

[wolves 29]

I would never call Joe Biden a better speaker lol. He's horrible.

[vcczar 1,224]

3 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Did you see the Morning Consult polls today? Good stuff for Joe.

Those are included. Not all good for Biden though. Then blue in the daily column is mostly due to the helpful Morning Consult polls. 

[ThePotatoWalrus 471]

6 hours ago, Actinguy said:

Who can actually string three sentences together more often than not, with a coherent message?  Joe Biden.

Neither of them can do this lol