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State of the Race: 63 Days Left


63 Day Poll  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Which of the following do you expect to happen by the end of September? You should look at my chart in the first post to see how easy/difficult the change might be.

    • Trump narrows Biden's lead in the national polls to under +5
    • Trump takes the lead in the national polls
      0
    • Trump takes the lead in the average state polls for MI
      0
    • Trump takes the lead in the average state polls for PA
      0
    • Trump takes the lead in the average state polls for WI
    • Trump takes the lead in the average state polls for FL
    • Trump takes the lead in the average state polls for NC
    • Trump takes the lead in the average state polls for AZ
    • Trump takes the lead in the average state polls for NV
      0
    • Trump takes the lead in the average state polls for NH
      0
    • Trump takes the lead in the average state polls for MN
      0
    • Trump takes the lead in my forecast map
    • Trump looks better at the end of September in the polls in general than he does on this day.
    • Biden looks better in the polls than he does on this day.
    • The polling will look about the same


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PredictIt and presumably the other betting sights are extremely responsive to events and rumors -- to the minute.  In this sense, they naturally lead polls...but on PredictIt, you're not betting on what you WANT to happen (or how you plan to vote), you're betting on what you think WILL happen.  They're also extremely reactive TO polls.  

There's also the general awareness among bettors that things looked bleak in 2016 for Trump and he won anyway.  So that explains the roughly 50/50 split you see these days.  Nearly all signs point to Biden, but that also didn't matter for Clinton last time.  

Of course, last time, taking a bet that all signs were wrong and Trump was going to win resulted in a big payday for the Trump bettors.  Now that the odds are 50/50, the payout isn't worth the risk to me.  I get approximately the same amount of money no matter which winning horse I bet on, so why wouldn't I bet on the horse that's currently looking like he'll win?

Yes, Trump might surprise us again -- I consistently predict on this forum that he will.

But I have no interest in making money off of our country getting worse.

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