State of the Race: 66 Days Left

[vcczar 1,224]

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75

As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

A ton of B grade polls came in for Biden, having him up at 10+ pts vs Trump, which accounts for Biden's huge jump the national poll. A C- poll has Trump up in MI by 2 pts. 

GA and NC flip back to blue on the map. IA moves to lean red. 

Overall, Biden mostly reverts back to where he was prior to a bunch of low grade polls for Trump two days ago.

Categories	66	A Week Ago	100 Days Left
Gen Avg	Biden +9.1 (+0.7)	Biden +0.5	Biden +1.1
AZ avg	Biden +4.3 (+0.6)	Biden +0.7	Biden +1.4
FL avg	Biden +5.6 (+0.5)	Biden +0.2	Biden -2.0
GA avg	Trump +0.4 (-0.4)	Trump -0.5	Trump -0.9
IA avg	Trump +1.0 (-0.4)	Trump -0.3	Trump +0.7
MI Avg	Biden +7.2 (-0.4)	Biden -0.2	Biden -0.2
MN avg	Biden +5.7 (+0.5)	Biden +0.6	Biden -5.4
MO avg	Trump +4.9 (-0.5)	Trump -0.5	Trump -0.6
NV avg	Biden +7.9 (+0.8)	Biden +1.0	Biden +1.2
NH Avg	Biden +9.1 (+0.6)	Biden +0.3	Biden +1.6
NC avg	Biden +1.8 (+0.4)	Biden +0.4	Biden -0.4
OH avg	Trump +0.3 (-0.4)	Trump +0.8	Trump +2.4
PA Avg	Biden +5.7 (+0.4)	Biden -0.4	Biden -0.9
SC avg	Trump 6.0 (-0.3)	Trump -0.5	Trump -0.6
TX avg	Trump 1.0 (-0.5)	Trump -0.8	Trump +1.0
WI Avg	Biden 6.2 (+0.3)	Biden -0.6	Biden -0.9
Trump Approval	42.2 (0)	0.4	2
Trump Disapproval	54.0 (-0.3)	-0.1	-1.7
Favorability	Biden 13.2 (0)	Biden +0.2	Biden +1.5
Direction of the Country	-42.5 (0)	2.7	3
Generic Ballot	Dem 6.0 (0)	Dem -0.6	Dem -2.6
Betting Markets	Biden 52.8 (-0.9)	Biden -3.8	Biden -7.9
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE	Clinton +3		Clinton +5
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls	Biden +6.1		Biden +3

[admin_270 788]

I only watched a clip of Trump's speech, but it didn't seem low energy or dull. Crowd (!) was cheering, delivery was good IMHO. Perhaps the clip wasn't representative of the speech.

[admin_270 788]

Biden has a tough will, and life long goal to be President. If elected, I wouldn't count him out for 1 term. If he does serve 1 term, and still seems in good health, I wouldn't count him out for 2 terms.

[admin_270 788]

The big question of course would be health issues. If indeed he has early signs of dementia, he will be receiving the best health care available perhaps more or less in the world. Dementia can be slowed or perhaps even in certain cases reversed.

[vcczar 1,224]

3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I only watched a clip of Trump's speech, but it didn't seem low energy or dull. Crowd (!) was cheering, delivery was good IMHO. Perhaps the clip wasn't representative of the speech.

Doesn't sound representative of the entire hour-long speech. I watched the whole thing. Some of it is that he was low energy relative to how he usually is, especially on campaign. However, it was odd seeing him slouching and gripping the podium, drenched in sweat, and reading very slowly from the teleprompter for at least 30% of the speech if not more. If he was like this in 2016, there is no chance he would have won the primary. I think part of his appeal, I assume, is that he's outlandish, bold, aggressive. This was something else. He had aggressive lines, but they were stated in a very scripted way, without conviction. 

If you also watch clips of the Biden speech, you're going to see a difference in delivery and energy. I think it helps that Biden has learned to read a teleprompter in a way that doesn't look like he's reading a teleprompter. Trump hasn't and it really looks like he needs glasses by the way he's squinting and slouching. 

This seems to be his main pose while speaking--leaning, slouching, and visible lines of sweat, slow scripted speech with an occasional slurred word. : 

[PringlesN7 162]

3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Doesn't sound representative of the entire hour-long speech. I watched the whole thing. Some of it is that he was low energy relative to how he usually is, especially on campaign. However, it was odd seeing him slouching and gripping the podium, drenched in sweat, and reading very slowly from the teleprompter for at least 30% of the speech if not more. If he was like this in 2016, there is no chance he would have won the primary. I think part of his appeal, I assume, is that he's outlandish, bold, aggressive. This was something else. He had aggressive lines, but they were stated in a very scripted way, without conviction. 

If you also watch clips of the Biden speech, you're going to see a difference in delivery and energy. I think it helps that Biden has learned to read a teleprompter in a way that doesn't look like he's reading a teleprompter. Trump hasn't and it really looks like he needs glasses by the way he's squinting and slouching. 

This seems to be his main pose while speaking--leaning, slouching, and visible lines of sweat, slow scripted speech with an occasional slurred word. : 

I don't think his delivery was bad, but it definitely wasn't 2016 energy levels IMHO. Trump does best when he's off the script. Bullet points maybe, but just talk from your head. And that's really what fueled his 2016 primary wins. But the conventions this year, I'm not really sure they will have a profound effect. More or less, it's solidified their own base. Most people have likely already made up their mind on voting this year. It's going to be a turnout battle, and while there may be a substantial amount of undecided voters, their effect is going to be smaller this year. Still important, but smaller. I think the debates are going to be the best shot for Trump. 

[Conservative Elector 2 333]

Sometimes I get the feeling Trump can't do it right. When he's going off the teleprompter it's bad, when he sticks to it it's also bad. I am glad when he's reading off it. Trump can turn into a beast if he's delivering remarks unscripted and you never know if he is going to say something bad, hurtful or blatant stupid. That's why I wouldn't like to debate Trump as his opponent. By going wild in a debate he could bring you easily off your stride and most likely the opponent will get the dirt for getting incoherent from Trump's attack. Trump's remarks don't hurt him due to his Teflon ability which surprised me many times in his early campaign. Now I am used to it and stopped wondering about why? How? Really?

[Wiw 91]

Has he been drinking?

[vcczar 1,224]

15 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Has he been drinking?

Trump doesn't drink, but he may be on drugs or something. 

[admin_270 788]

This is interesting

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

"11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls"

"In contrast, just 5.4% of Democrats say they’d be reluctant to share their true voting intentions — roughly half the number of Republicans reluctant to tell the truth on phone polls."

"10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls"

If this is accurate, that's a large % - around 8%.

[Patine 444]

3 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Crowd (!) was cheering,

Crowds cheer to Kim Jong-un speeches (if they know what's good for them). Not much of an indicator of speech quality AT ALL, nowadays.

[Patine 444]

1 hour ago, Wiw said:

Has he been drinking?

 

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Trump doesn't drink, but he may be on drugs or something. 

Hitler, who also strictly never drank or smoked, was actually and notably a cocaine addict, since you brought this up.

[vcczar 1,224]

18 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

This is interesting

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

"11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls"

"In contrast, just 5.4% of Democrats say they’d be reluctant to share their true voting intentions — roughly half the number of Republicans reluctant to tell the truth on phone polls."

"10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls"

If this is accurate, that's a large % - around 8%.

I wonder if they'd poll their true opinions here. Also what's the margin of error on that poll?

[admin_270 788]

6 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I wonder if they'd poll their true opinions here. Also what's the margin of error on that poll?

Ya, there's a problem with trying to get their true opinions, when the whole question is whether people give their true opinions!

Dunno MoE - says 2,000 people in online survey, so a large sample.

[vcczar 1,224]

22 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, there's a problem with trying to get their true opinions, when the whole question is whether people give their true opinions!

Dunno MoE - says 2,000 people in online survey, so a large sample.

I don't tend to trust online surveys so much, unless they have some sort of mechanism to prevent people from responding multiple times. On top of this, online surveys are going to track who is most likely to click on the survey. Downside to a phone poll is -- who will pick up, who has a LAN line (if LAN Line only), and who will take it. Phone polls skew to older people, but they're also the most reliable voters. Don't know what online polls skew to. I also find online poll have a higher % of anti-establishment voters -- 3rd party, Sanders, Trump, than in standard polls. 

[ThePotatoWalrus 471]

2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

This is interesting

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

"11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls"

"In contrast, just 5.4% of Democrats say they’d be reluctant to share their true voting intentions — roughly half the number of Republicans reluctant to tell the truth on phone polls."

"10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls"

If this is accurate, that's a large % - around 8%.

I think this is a very valid point. Technically I'm a registered Democrat because I wanted to vote in the Primary, and if I was polled, I would definitely tell them I'm a Democrat voting Democrat just to mess with them.

[Conservative Elector 2 333]

22 hours ago, admin_270 said:

I only watched a clip of Trump's speech, but it didn't seem low energy or dull. Crowd (!) was cheering, delivery was good IMHO. Perhaps the clip wasn't representative of the speech.

I watched the whole speech by now. I agree with you. What is called low energy now, would have been called presidential during Trump's first campaign. I did not notice Trump struggling to read the teleprompter or being exhausted. I am glad about the presidential tone throughout most of his speech. Regarding content it was clearly fine delivered and assured once again why it's more than necessary to keep the GOP in power even with Trump leading the ticket. The alternative is way worse.

[billay 163]

Trump now down only an average of -2.7 in battleground states according to RCP

[wolves 29]

I mean we knew the race would tighten but Biden being +5 nationally is still not amazing for Trump.

I would be giddy over winning Ohio if I was Trump though and that recent YouGov poll showing Trump winning Independents +10. We always knew Biden had an independents problem though.

[Jayavarman 125]

14 hours ago, wolves said:

I mean we knew the race would tighten but Biden being +5 nationally is still not amazing for Trump.

Why does that matter? Trump did not win 2016 with amazing polls.

Democrats I know keep showing me Biden's national lead when I warn them about Trump.  They did the same assurance dance with Hillary's lead in 2016.

[billay 163]

47 minutes ago, Jayavarman said:

Why does that matter? Trump did not win 2016 with amazing polls.

Democrats I know keep showing me Biden's national lead when I warn them about Trump.  They did the same assurance dance with Hillary's lead in 2016.

Well I'm a bit curious here even in those swing states Trump appears to be gaining in hes really not close to 50%, barely mid 40s if that. I'm assuming the Libertarian and Green wont even crack 1% so he will still have to get 49-50%. I'm curious how he will do that if hes never done it even some of the states he won in 2016 were what? 47-48%? Those states Johnson got 2-4% if I'm not mistaken.

[wolves 29]

8 hours ago, Jayavarman said:

Why does that matter? Trump did not win 2016 with amazing polls.

Democrats I know keep showing me Biden's national lead when I warn them about Trump.  They did the same assurance dance with Hillary's lead in 2016.

Cause this is a dramatically different race than 2016.