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State of the Race: 66 Days Left


66 Day Poll  

27 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Who is doing more to cause division in this country, especially regarding race?

    • Donald Trump
    • Joe Biden
    • Both about equally.
  3. 3. Can Trump claim to be the Law & Order candidate when violent protests are occurring on his watch.

    • Yes, because rhetoric is as important as action.
    • No, because he hasn't quelled the violent protests.
    • No, because he's the one causing these protests.
  4. 4. Does it matter that Trump's RNC nomination speech was low energy and dull compared to his usual rally speeches? Note: Trump was slouching over a podium, straining to read the teleprompter and sweating profusely. His delivery was scripted and stale.

    • Yes, this pretty much destroys the charge that Joe Biden is the "sleepy," "low energy" candidate candidate.
    • No, because people will forget about this or will not have watched it, or will overlook it.
  5. 5. Do you think Joe Biden will last 4 years if elected?

    • Yes, and will run for reelection.
    • Yes, but will not run for reelection.
    • No, he will resign due to age or health.
    • No, he will die or otherwise be forced out due to serious ailments.
    • No, he will be impeached and either removed or will resign before conviction.
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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

A ton of B grade polls came in for Biden, having him up at 10+ pts vs Trump, which accounts for Biden's huge jump the national poll. A C- poll has Trump up in MI by 2 pts. 

GA and NC flip back to blue on the map. IA moves to lean red. 

Overall, Biden mostly reverts back to where he was prior to a bunch of low grade polls for Trump two days ago.

Categories 66 A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden +9.1 (+0.7) Biden +0.5 Biden +1.1
AZ avg Biden +4.3 (+0.6) Biden +0.7 Biden +1.4
FL avg Biden +5.6 (+0.5) Biden +0.2 Biden -2.0
GA avg Trump +0.4 (-0.4) Trump -0.5 Trump -0.9
IA avg Trump +1.0 (-0.4) Trump -0.3 Trump +0.7
MI Avg Biden +7.2 (-0.4) Biden -0.2 Biden -0.2
MN avg Biden +5.7 (+0.5) Biden +0.6 Biden -5.4
MO avg Trump +4.9 (-0.5) Trump -0.5 Trump -0.6
NV avg Biden +7.9 (+0.8) Biden +1.0 Biden +1.2
NH Avg Biden +9.1 (+0.6) Biden +0.3 Biden +1.6
NC avg Biden +1.8 (+0.4) Biden +0.4 Biden -0.4
OH avg Trump +0.3 (-0.4) Trump +0.8 Trump +2.4
PA Avg Biden +5.7 (+0.4) Biden -0.4 Biden -0.9
SC avg Trump 6.0 (-0.3) Trump -0.5 Trump -0.6
TX avg Trump 1.0 (-0.5) Trump -0.8 Trump +1.0
WI Avg Biden 6.2 (+0.3) Biden -0.6 Biden -0.9
Trump Approval 42.2 (0) 0.4 2
Trump Disapproval 54.0 (-0.3) -0.1 -1.7
Favorability Biden 13.2 (0) Biden +0.2 Biden +1.5
Direction of the Country -42.5 (0) 2.7 3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.0 (0) Dem -0.6 Dem -2.6
Betting Markets Biden 52.8 (-0.9) Biden -3.8 Biden -7.9
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +3   Clinton +5
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +6.1   Biden +3

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Biden has a tough will, and life long goal to be President. If elected, I wouldn't count him out for 1 term. If he does serve 1 term, and still seems in good health, I wouldn't count him out for 2 terms.

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The big question of course would be health issues. If indeed he has early signs of dementia, he will be receiving the best health care available perhaps more or less in the world. Dementia can be slowed or perhaps even in certain cases reversed.

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I only watched a clip of Trump's speech, but it didn't seem low energy or dull. Crowd (!) was cheering, delivery was good IMHO. Perhaps the clip wasn't representative of the speech.

Doesn't sound representative of the entire hour-long speech. I watched the whole thing. Some of it is that he was low energy relative to how he usually is, especially on campaign. However, it was odd seeing him slouching and gripping the podium, drenched in sweat, and reading very slowly from the teleprompter for at least 30% of the speech if not more. If he was like this in 2016, there is no chance he would have won the primary. I think part of his appeal, I assume, is that he's outlandish, bold, aggressive. This was something else. He had aggressive lines, but they were stated in a very scripted way, without conviction. 

If you also watch clips of the Biden speech, you're going to see a difference in delivery and energy. I think it helps that Biden has learned to read a teleprompter in a way that doesn't look like he's reading a teleprompter. Trump hasn't and it really looks like he needs glasses by the way he's squinting and slouching. 

This seems to be his main pose while speaking--leaning, slouching, and visible lines of sweat, slow scripted speech with an occasional slurred word. : 

maxresdefault.jpg

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Doesn't sound representative of the entire hour-long speech. I watched the whole thing. Some of it is that he was low energy relative to how he usually is, especially on campaign. However, it was odd seeing him slouching and gripping the podium, drenched in sweat, and reading very slowly from the teleprompter for at least 30% of the speech if not more. If he was like this in 2016, there is no chance he would have won the primary. I think part of his appeal, I assume, is that he's outlandish, bold, aggressive. This was something else. He had aggressive lines, but they were stated in a very scripted way, without conviction. 

If you also watch clips of the Biden speech, you're going to see a difference in delivery and energy. I think it helps that Biden has learned to read a teleprompter in a way that doesn't look like he's reading a teleprompter. Trump hasn't and it really looks like he needs glasses by the way he's squinting and slouching. 

This seems to be his main pose while speaking--leaning, slouching, and visible lines of sweat, slow scripted speech with an occasional slurred word. : 

maxresdefault.jpg

I don't think his delivery was bad, but it definitely wasn't 2016 energy levels IMHO. Trump does best when he's off the script. Bullet points maybe, but just talk from your head. And that's really what fueled his 2016 primary wins. But the conventions this year, I'm not really sure they will have a profound effect. More or less, it's solidified their own base. Most people have likely already made up their mind on voting this year. It's going to be a turnout battle, and while there may be a substantial amount of undecided voters, their effect is going to be smaller this year. Still important, but smaller. I think the debates are going to be the best shot for Trump. 

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Sometimes I get the feeling Trump can't do it right. When he's going off the teleprompter it's bad, when he sticks to it it's also bad. I am glad when he's reading off it. Trump can turn into a beast if he's delivering remarks unscripted and you never know if he is going to say something bad, hurtful or blatant stupid. That's why I wouldn't like to debate Trump as his opponent. By going wild in a debate he could bring you easily off your stride and most likely the opponent will get the dirt for getting incoherent from Trump's attack. Trump's remarks don't hurt him due to his Teflon ability which surprised me many times in his early campaign. Now I am used to it and stopped wondering about why? How? Really?

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15 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Has he been drinking?

Trump doesn't drink, but he may be on drugs or something. 

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This is interesting

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

"11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls"

"In contrast, just 5.4% of Democrats say they’d be reluctant to share their true voting intentions — roughly half the number of Republicans reluctant to tell the truth on phone polls."

"10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls"

If this is accurate, that's a large % - around 8%.

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3 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Crowd (!) was cheering,

Crowds cheer to Kim Jong-un speeches (if they know what's good for them). Not much of an indicator of speech quality AT ALL, nowadays.

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1 hour ago, Wiw said:

Has he been drinking?

 

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Trump doesn't drink, but he may be on drugs or something. 

Hitler, who also strictly never drank or smoked, was actually and notably a cocaine addict, since you brought this up.

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18 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

This is interesting

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

"11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls"

"In contrast, just 5.4% of Democrats say they’d be reluctant to share their true voting intentions — roughly half the number of Republicans reluctant to tell the truth on phone polls."

"10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls"

If this is accurate, that's a large % - around 8%.

I wonder if they'd poll their true opinions here. Also what's the margin of error on that poll?

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6 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I wonder if they'd poll their true opinions here. Also what's the margin of error on that poll?

Ya, there's a problem with trying to get their true opinions, when the whole question is whether people give their true opinions!

Dunno MoE - says 2,000 people in online survey, so a large sample.

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22 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, there's a problem with trying to get their true opinions, when the whole question is whether people give their true opinions!

Dunno MoE - says 2,000 people in online survey, so a large sample.

I don't tend to trust online surveys so much, unless they have some sort of mechanism to prevent people from responding multiple times. On top of this, online surveys are going to track who is most likely to click on the survey. Downside to a phone poll is -- who will pick up, who has a LAN line (if LAN Line only), and who will take it. Phone polls skew to older people, but they're also the most reliable voters. Don't know what online polls skew to. I also find online poll have a higher % of anti-establishment voters -- 3rd party, Sanders, Trump, than in standard polls. 

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

This is interesting

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

"11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls"

"In contrast, just 5.4% of Democrats say they’d be reluctant to share their true voting intentions — roughly half the number of Republicans reluctant to tell the truth on phone polls."

"10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls"

If this is accurate, that's a large % - around 8%.

I think this is a very valid point. Technically I'm a registered Democrat because I wanted to vote in the Primary, and if I was polled, I would definitely tell them I'm a Democrat voting Democrat just to mess with them.

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22 hours ago, admin_270 said:

I only watched a clip of Trump's speech, but it didn't seem low energy or dull. Crowd (!) was cheering, delivery was good IMHO. Perhaps the clip wasn't representative of the speech.

I watched the whole speech by now. I agree with you. What is called low energy now, would have been called presidential during Trump's first campaign. I did not notice Trump struggling to read the teleprompter or being exhausted. I am glad about the presidential tone throughout most of his speech. Regarding content it was clearly fine delivered and assured once again why it's more than necessary to keep the GOP in power even with Trump leading the ticket. The alternative is way worse.

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I mean we knew the race would tighten but Biden being +5 nationally is still not amazing for Trump.

I would be giddy over winning Ohio if I was Trump though and that recent YouGov poll showing Trump winning Independents +10. We always knew Biden had an independents problem though.

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14 hours ago, wolves said:

I mean we knew the race would tighten but Biden being +5 nationally is still not amazing for Trump.

Why does that matter? Trump did not win 2016 with amazing polls.

Democrats I know keep showing me Biden's national lead when I warn them about Trump.  They did the same assurance dance with Hillary's lead in 2016.

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47 minutes ago, Jayavarman said:

Why does that matter? Trump did not win 2016 with amazing polls.

Democrats I know keep showing me Biden's national lead when I warn them about Trump.  They did the same assurance dance with Hillary's lead in 2016.

Well I'm a bit curious here even in those swing states Trump appears to be gaining in hes really not close to 50%, barely mid 40s if that. I'm assuming the Libertarian and Green wont even crack 1% so he will still have to get 49-50%. I'm curious how he will do that if hes never done it even some of the states he won in 2016 were what? 47-48%? Those states Johnson got 2-4% if I'm not mistaken.

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8 hours ago, Jayavarman said:

Why does that matter? Trump did not win 2016 with amazing polls.

Democrats I know keep showing me Biden's national lead when I warn them about Trump.  They did the same assurance dance with Hillary's lead in 2016.

Cause this is a dramatically different race than 2016.

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