Jump to content
270soft Forum

Polling for September in Previous General Elections


Recommended Posts

September General Election PV Polls. I'm highlighting those polls that might give Trump's campaign some optimism for success.:

  • 1936: FDR +5 over Landon (FDR will win +24)
  • 1940: FDR +9 over Wilkie (FDR will win +10)
  • 1944: FDR +5 over Dewey (FDR will win +7)
  • 1948: Dewey +8 over Truman (Truman will win +5)
  • 1952: Eisenhower +14 over Stevenson (Eisenhower will win +11)
  • 1956: Eisenhower +11 over Stevenson (Eisenhower will win +15)
  • 1960: Nixon +1 over Kennedy (Almost tied, but Kennedy wins EC)
  • 1964: Johnson +33 over Goldwater (Johnson will win +22)
  • 1968: Nixon +14 over Humphrey (Almost tied, but Nixon wins the EC)
  • 1972: Nixon +28 over McGovern (Nixon will win +23)
  • 1976: Carter +11 over Ford (Carter will win +2)
  • 1980: Reagan +4 over Carter (Reagan will win +10)
  • 1984: Reagan +16 over Mondale (Reagan will win +18)
  • 1988: Bush +6 over Dukakis (Bush will win +7)
  • 1992: Clinton +14 over Bush (Clinton will win +6)
  • 1996: Clinton +16 over Dole (Clinton will win +8)
  • 2000: Bush +3 over Gore (Almost tied, but Bush would lose the PV and win the EC)
  • 2004: Bush +7 over Kerry (Bush will win +3)
  • 2008: Obama +1 over McCain (Obama will win +7)
  • 2012: Obama +5 over Romney (Obama will win +4)
  • 2016: Clinton +2 over Trump (Clinton will win PV by +2, but Trump will win the EC)
  • 2018: ????? Likely Biden +8 over Trump for September since numbers have been so consistent.

There are three September polls to GE date that could give Trump some optimism. Truman was an incumbent who was way down in the polls, but then came back and won rather convincingly in the last day. In 1968, Humphrey was of the incumbent party. While he didn't win, he basically erased a 14 pt lead by Nixon. In 1976, Ford was an incumbent down by 11 pts, and he nearly erased that lead. 

However, there are some differences. Truman overcame his deficit by uniting the Democrats--Progressive and States Rights wings, which were strongly opposed to him. Truman's analogy would be if he won back over Never Trump Republicans. For Humphrey, it was Anti-War Democrats opting to side with Humphrey and LBJ's announcement that peace was on the horizon. In 1976, Ford caught up because Carter made some gaffes ("I've lusted in my heart," which made him sound like a sexual predator) and was vague on policy. He also didn't respond well to Ford's statement that Carter lacked experience. Trump's situation is unique as he's dealing with a pandemic, which will likely remain, and may peak again, before election day. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, vcczar said:

I've lusted in my heart," which made him sound like a sexual predator

I’ve never heard this interpretation. It’s crazy that people took it that way because to me it was just him admitting to being human. Not a single person (barring asexual folks) hasn’t lusted in their heart.

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

I’ve never heard this interpretation. It’s crazy that people took it that way because to me it was just him admitting to being human. Not a single person (barring asexual folks) hasn’t lusted in their heart.

I read a book once that humorously stated that after Carter said that, "they feared he'd come grabbing after their daughters in the streets." 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Lusting in the heart is a Biblical reference.

“You have heard that it was said to those of old, ‘You shall not commit adultery.’  But I say to you that whoever looks at a woman to lust for her has already committed adultery with her in his heart." - Matthew 5:27-28

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, pilight said:

Lusting in the heart is a Biblical reference.

“You have heard that it was said to those of old, ‘You shall not commit adultery.’  But I say to you that whoever looks at a woman to lust for her has already committed adultery with her in his heart." - Matthew 5:27-28

Yeah, and most of Carter’s base knew this, which is why I was so surprised. Then again, most non-Christians or Christians not engaged with their faith probably wouldn’t know.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...