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State of the Race: 67 Days Left


67 Day Poll  

20 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Will you watch Trump's RNC speech tonight?

  3. 3. Would it have been a smarter election strategy for Trump to have cancelled his RNC speech and gone to Louisiana to help with the Hurricane recovery?

    • It wouldn't matter one way or the other.
    • His speech is more important and/or it might look like he's abandoning the very sleepy 2020 RNC Convention and/or Louisiana will vote for him anyway.
    • He should fly to Louisiana and give the speech another time and/or it would be smart to not have his speech connected to the shoddy 2020 RNC.
    • other
  4. 4. FiveThirtyEIght lists Trump's chances at victory at 30%. Who do you think is probably closer to accurate if you had to guess?

    • Five Thirty Eight 30%
    • Economist 11%
    • Admin270 80%
    • VCCzar 40%
    • Rachel Bitecofer 0%
      0


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Not much movement. Few polls for today. 

Direction of the country is still rising very slowly for Trump, which might be the most important meter to look at. 

Best thing for Biden is that he's still polling almost twice as strong as Clinton was vs. Trump in 2016.

No change to the map

Categories 67 A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 8.4 (+0.2) Biden -0.8 Biden +0.4
AZ avg Biden 3.7 (0) Biden -0.9 Biden +1.8
FL avg Biden 5.1 (0) Biden -0.9 Biden -2.5
GA avg Trump 0.8 (0) Trump +0.3 Trump -0.5
IA avg Trump 1.4 (0) Trump +0.6 Trump +1.1
MI Avg Biden 7.6 (0) Biden -0.3 Biden +0.2
MN avg Biden 5.2 (+0.1) Biden -0.5 Biden -5.9
MO avg Trump 5.4 (0) Trump +0.5 Trump -0.1
NV avg Biden 7.1 (+0.1) Biden -0.7 Biden +0.4
NH Avg Biden 8.5 (0) Biden -0.7 Biden +1.0
NC avg Biden 1.4 (0) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.8
OH avg Trump 0.7 (0) Trump +0.5 Trump +2.8
PA Avg Biden 5.3 (-0.2) Biden -0.9 Biden -1.5
SC avg Trump 6.3 (0) Trump +0.3 Trump -0.3
TX avg Trump 1.5 (-0.1) Trump +0.3 Trump +1.5
WI Avg Biden 5.9 (+0.1) Biden -1.1 Biden -1.2
Trump Approval 42.2 (0) 0.7 2
Trump Disapproval 54.3 (+0.1) -0.3 -1.4
Favorability Biden 13.2 (0) Biden +0.2 Biden +1.5
Direction of the Country -42.5 (+0.3) 2.7 3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.0 (0) Dem -0.6 Dem -2.6
Betting Markets Biden 53.7 (-0.6) -1.4 -7
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +3    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +5.4    

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I think it's a 60% chance for Trump.

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I have it at 50/50.  North Carolina is my bellweather.  If NC (or GA, or FL -- but NC feels most likely) flip to Biden, we could be in for a VERY good night.  If all three stay in Trump's court, my money is on us being fucked.  But for now, it's a coin flip.

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As for my "Other", I believe Trump would have been in the way and caused a negative news cycle if he incompetently blundered into Louisiana.  There is literally nothing that Trump could do in person that would make things better for those people.  Best that he stays out of the way.

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2 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I have it at 50/50.  North Carolina is my bellweather.  If NC (or GA, or FL -- but NC feels most likely) flip to Biden, we could be in for a VERY good night.  If all three stay in Trump's court, my money is on us being fucked.  But for now, it's a coin flip.

I think my hopes rest in Arizona and Pennsylvania right now. If it's tight, we need to watch Pennsylvania. We can lose Wisconsin as long as we get Arizona (which I think is an easier flip than Wisconsin, honestly). I think we can even get all of them, obviously, but those two states are the ones I'm watching. 

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

I think my hopes rest in Arizona and Pennsylvania right now. If it's tight, we need to watch Pennsylvania. We can lose Wisconsin as long as we get Arizona (which I think is an easier flip than Wisconsin, honestly). I think we can even get all of them, obviously, but those two states are the ones I'm watching. 

Yeah, I should have specified "early" bellweather.  If NC (or GA, or FL) flips, then I'm feeling cocky for the rest of the night.  If they don't, I'm filled with dread for the rest of the night.  The math isn't impossible for either candidate without those states, but it sure changes how I feel about our odds.

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Yeah, I should have specified "early" bellweather.  If NC (or GA, or FL) flips, then I'm feeling cocky for the rest of the night.  If they don't, I'm filled with dread for the rest of the night.  The math isn't impossible for either candidate without those states, but it sure changes how I feel about our odds.

Agreed. I don't know the times that well of what closes, but PA should be relatively soon after NC. If Biden wins any of those three, or runs them close, I'll feel okay. Especially if say NC is within like .5% or something similar - suggesting at least a few points better than 2016, if it mirrors across the map.

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13 minutes ago, billay said:

I hope Trump wins just to see this place lose its shit.

...I don't think anyone would be surprised? Everyone is intelligent enough to know that either major party nominee has a non-zero chance of winning.

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Wouldn't have mattered cause people would have seen cancelling the RNC speech is political positioning, Americans are hyper-aware when Trump is political positioning cause they love looking at him with a lens.

I think Hurricane Laura is supposed to be a lot more tame now, it made landfall at a Cat 4 isn't of Cat 5 right? (That's not saying its much more tame.) This isn't Katrina level but he could make this work for him, this is his last chance to look good I don't see another situation like this arising lol. I remember people thinking he was doing well with Harvey though.

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19 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

...I don't think anyone would be surprised? Everyone is intelligent enough to know that either major party nominee has a non-zero chance of winning.

You know what the Park Ranger said Hestia. "Don't feed the troll."

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22 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

...I don't think anyone would be surprised? Everyone is intelligent enough to know that either major party nominee has a non-zero chance of 

22 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

 

 

Given how he performed this summer with everything going on though? I mean failed tremendously.

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1 hour ago, billay said:

I hope Trump wins just to see this place lose its shit.

Ya, the forum is disproportionately Dem supporters. (I would say Biden supporters, but I don't think virtually any of them really support Biden in particular. They just support whoever they think might beat Trump.)

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7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, the forum is disproportionately Dem supporters. (I would say Biden supporters, but I don't think virtually any of them really support Biden in particular. They just support whoever they think might beat Trump.)

Well this election is literally the equivalent of being told "So your choices are shooting yourself and poisoning yourself"

There is no positive outcomes in my eyes. The only positive outcome is Biden being the last hoorah for moderate politics. I don't see 2028 being anything other than a progressive orgy, mind my language.

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31 minutes ago, wolves said:

Well this election is literally the equivalent of being told "So your choices are shooting yourself and poisoning yourself"

There is no positive outcomes in my eyes. The only positive outcome is Biden being the last hoorah for moderate politics. I don't see 2028 being anything other than a progressive orgy, mind my language.

What did you think of the choices in 2016?

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36 minutes ago, wolves said:

Well this election is literally the equivalent of being told "So your choices are shooting yourself and poisoning yourself"

There is no positive outcomes in my eyes. The only positive outcome is Biden being the last hoorah for moderate politics. I don't see 2028 being anything other than a progressive orgy, mind my language.

Hmm I didnt think of that. Good point but knowing the DNC theyll try and cram another old Moss covered moderate onto the top of the ticket.

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4 minutes ago, billay said:

Hmm I didnt think of that. Good point but knowing the DNC theyll try and cram another old Moss covered moderate onto the top of the ticket.

Well of course, I see Cuomo trying for it but he is pretty unpopular outside of Covid-19. Don't see him being popular like this ever again. 

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15 hours ago, wolves said:

Well this election is literally the equivalent of being told "So your choices are shooting yourself and poisoning yourself"

There is no positive outcomes in my eyes. The only positive outcome is Biden being the last hoorah for moderate politics. I don't see 2028 being anything other than a progressive orgy, mind my language.

I see things differently. I think by then, the candidates will all be Trump appointees - or possibly whoever's analogous to Christian Values in "Rumsfeldia"!

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55 minutes ago, Wiw said:

I see things differently. I think by then, the candidates will all be Trump appointees - or possibly whoever's analogous to Christian Values in "Rumsfeldia"!

Is your melting? This was more nonsensical than usual. And I think you've convinced you've written a book of accurate prophecy with "Rumsfeldia," rag. THAT is really dangerous thinking - perhaps and potentially incipently more than any brainwave Trump has, or likely will, produce. Tread lightly - the self-proclaimed but false prophet is among the most dangerous figures in history.

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3 hours ago, Patine said:

Is your melting? This was more nonsensical than usual. And I think you've convinced you've written a book of accurate prophecy with "Rumsfeldia," rag. THAT is really dangerous thinking - perhaps and potentially incipently more than any brainwave Trump has, or likely will, produce. Tread lightly - the self-proclaimed but false prophet is among the most dangerous figures in history.

Sir, need I remind you that President Rumsfeld in the Alternate History Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72 is, in his psychotic obsession with right-wing, anarcho-capitalist and anti-communist rhetoric, probably one of the most horrifying examples of art turned reality. Let's list his atrocities, shall we:

  • He encourages "Liberty Battalions" to burn any books critical of his free-market economic policies and "disappear" any like-wise celebrities and political enemies.
  • He alienates nearly all of his allies (resulting in NATO being disbanded) with the notable exception of the two dictatorial and genocidal states of South Africa and Israel (which he champions as bastions of freedom).
  • Not only does he resort to blatant electoral fraud to be re-elected for his second term, he also attempts to make himself president for life. In fact, he privately admits to wanting to tear up the Constitution and strip US citizens of every constitutional right except the right to bear arms.
  • He bullies state governments into accepting his policies, and later, when Pete McCloskey is re-elected as California's governor, he tries to annul the election in favor of his handpicked stooge, and impeaches the Supreme Court justices who ruled against overturning the election results. This pushes California, Hawaii, and Idaho into seceding from the union.
  • He wants to have all homosexuals imprisoned, comparing them to pedophiles.
  • He shuts down the nascent civilian Internet before it can get off the ground, all in the name of "national security" (in a similar vein, the Trump Administration revoked net neutrality, if only for profit).
  • He removes every single environmental regulation and even pushes to have concern for the environment declared a mental disorder. When the nascent threat of Global Warming is brought up to him, he sees it as a good thing that will extend the growing season, and so he actively defends coal pollution.
  • He tries to weaponize AIDS (much like Trump tries to weaponize COVID).

Yeah! Sound familiar!? Admittedly, Rumsfeld does a few worse things, but you get the picture.

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RCP has Biden down to just 3% avg lead in battle ground states. I think judging by the OPs posts the last few weeks a clear bias is setting in which doesnt really allow him to be credible. 

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