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State of the Race: 68 Days Left


Day 68 Poll  

25 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Do you support defunding the police?

    • Yes
    • I'm not sure, but I'm leaning yes.
    • I'm not sure, but I'm leaning no
    • No
  3. 3. Do you support the protests that have been going across the country for months?

    • Yes
    • Yes, but only the peaceful protests.
    • No, but I support their right to protest.
    • No, and I support action to contain and/or prevent them.
  4. 4. Would you prefer if rules were in place to prevent media outlets from being partisan political propaganda machines?

  5. 5. What is closes to your foreign policy military view?

    • Neocon or Expansionist: I am pro-military intervention in most situations in which it is in America's best interest to be militarily engaged.
    • Standard: I am pro-military intervention when our allies or our country is in danger or for humanitarian reasons.
    • Progressive: Military intervention for self-defense (if attacked first) and for humanitarian reasons
    • Libertarian: Military intervention only if attacked.
    • Puritan Pacifist: No military intervention in any situation.
      0
    • Other (mention below)
      0


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. Today's polls are going to heavily trend red today, basically resetting the polls to pre-Convention bump (see the Week ago column). Change Research had several favorable polls for Trump, but keep in mind Change Research has a C- grade as a polling agency. Thus, Biden might bounce back tomorrow. The biggest gains for Trump are in PA and WI, two states he really needs to win. Nevertheless, Biden's lead is still convincingly strong in both states overall. 

The more worrisome trends is that generic Democrats are losing ground. If Biden wins he needs both houses of Congress. And the Direction of the Country poll is looking better for Trump, although it still isn't looking good for him. 

Due to the Change Research polls, the map has basically reset to a week ago. 

Categories 68 Days A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 8.2 (-1.3) Biden -0.2 Biden +0.2
AZ avg Biden 3.7 (-1.1) Biden +0.2 Biden +0.8
FL avg Biden 5.1 (-0.8) Biden -0.2 Biden -2.5
GA avg Trump.0.8 (+0.5) Trump -0.1 Trump -0.5
IA avg Trump 1.4 (+0.8) Trump 0 Trump +1.1
MI Avg Biden 7.6 (-0.4) Biden +0.3 Biden +0.2
MN avg Biden 5.1 (-0.7) Biden 0 Biden -6.0
MO avg Trump 5.4 (+0.7) Trump -0.1 Trump -0.1
NV avg Biden 7.0 (-0.9) Biden +0.3 Biden +0.3
NH Avg Biden 8.5 (-0.8) Biden -0.7 Biden +1.0
NC avg Biden 1.4 (-0.5) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.8
OH avg Trump 0.7 (+0.6) Trump +1.1 Trump +2.8
PA Avg Biden 5.5 (-0.8) Biden -1.0 Biden -0.5
SC avg Trump 6.3 (+0.4) Trump -0.3 Trump -0.3
TX avg Trump 1.6 (+0.6) Trump -0.2 Trump +1.6
WI Avg Biden 5.8 (-1.3) Biden (-1.0) Biden -1.4
Trump Approval 42.2 (+0.6) 0.1 2
Trump Disapproval 54.2 (-0.5) 0.4 -1.5
Favorability Biden 13.2 (+0.2) Biden -0.4 Biden +1.5
Direction of the Country -42.8 (+1.2) 2.4 2.7
Generic Ballot Dem 6.0 (-0.6) Dem -0.6 Dem -2.6
Betting Markets Biden 54.3 (-0.6) Biden -3.2 Biden -6.4
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +2    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +6.2    

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Police need major reform. Chanting “Defund the Police” is an awful mistake on BLM’s party. I support Black Lives Matter, of course, but the Policing Reform issue is incredibly complex and I’m glad someone like Joe Biden recognizes we need reform instead of going gung ho with irresponsible phrasing.

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I support some defunding of police, if the jobs are going to go to other departments. If they don't need some money because social workers can do some of the work - then fine, divert the funds. But if they're doing largely the same job, then no.

I was confused also on the phrasing of the last question - I was going between Standard and Progressive and I ended up with standard because I believe we should defend our allies if they are attacked, but the progressive one only states in self-defense (which to me means only in self-defense), so I had to go with standard. 

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Screaming down people at resteraunts and going into the suburbs is terrible optics. I support BLM (the fight for equal justice, not the organization) but they really need to cut some of the shit and become coherent on exactly WHAT needs to be done. 

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15 minutes ago, billay said:

From what I've heard and seen, Zogby is considered one of the worst, if not the worst pollster out there.

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The reason I voted no for the media question is I fear that the legislation would be so vaguely worded that any ideology could deem x news outlet as "fake news". I think teaching people how to be more intelligent in consuming news media is far more important than giving the government any power to shutdown the press(even if its an outlet I despise).

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On the question of war, I’d propose that your “standard” is the real neocon view.

I think you’d be hard pressed to name an American military action that wasn’t done in the name of either protecting our country and allies, or for humanitarian reasons.

You might disagree with the premise or question the results, but I assure you that this was the intent of the leaders behind every military action in our nation’s history.

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5 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

On the question of war, I’d propose that your “standard” is the real neocon view.

I think you’d be hard pressed to name an American military action that wasn’t done in the name of either protecting our country and allies, or for humanitarian reasons.

You might disagree with the premise or question the results, but I assure you that this was the intent of the leaders behind every military action in our nation’s history.

I define neocon as used in this poll as someone that supports military extra-curricular activity, such as a tolerance for war primarily to extend power overseas, influence overseas, or to have access to resources. I think the standard view, at least today and for the post-Bush era is to not support this policy favored by Cheney and Wolfowitz and the other big neocons. It's basically a Cold War relic in many ways. 

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10 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

On the question of war, I’d propose that your “standard” is the real neocon view.

I think you’d be hard pressed to name an American military action that wasn’t done in the name of either protecting our country and allies, or for humanitarian reasons.

You might disagree with the premise or question the results, but I assure you that this was the intent of the leaders behind every military action in our nation’s history.

I had a similar question about the "progressive" view. I think a lot of peoples opinions are much more in depth than this. Defending, say, Estonia is much different than the Saudis. NATO is exceedingly important to me.

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3 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I had a similar question about the "progressive" view. I think a lot of peoples opinions are much more in depth than this. Defending, say, Estonia is much different than the Saudis. NATO is exceedingly important to me.

That's why I have the "Other" option

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4 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I had a similar question about the "progressive" view. I think a lot of peoples opinions are much more in depth than this. Defending, say, Estonia is much different than the Saudis. NATO is exceedingly important to me.

 

1 minute ago, vcczar said:

That's why I have the "Other" option

I agree but I still felt like “Libertarian” encompasses this view because as we are in NATO, an attack on one of us is an attack on all of us. This means that defending Estonia is self-defense.

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Just now, Reagan04 said:

 

I agree but I still felt like “Libertarian” encompasses this view because as we are in NATO, an attack on one of us is an attack on all of us. This means that defending Estonia is self-defense.

I just wasn't sure since I doubt all libertarians hold the same view. 

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4 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I just wasn't sure since I doubt all libertarians hold the same view. 

Fair enough. Unlike many Puritan libertarians, I am not an isolationist by any stretch. 

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23 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I define neocon as used in this poll as someone that supports military extra-curricular activity, such as a tolerance for war primarily to extend power overseas, influence overseas, or to have access to resources. I think the standard view, at least today and for the post-Bush era is to not support this policy favored by Cheney and Wolfowitz and the other big neocons. It's basically a Cold War relic in many ways. 

But WHY would someone want to extend power overseas, influence overseas, or access to resources?

To defend the US and our allies (even pre-emptively) or for humanitarian reasons.

Again, you can feel their assessment was off base, but that’s definitely what Cheney and others believed.

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In terms of the last question, for a country like the UK, I believe in more of a Japanese method, only if there are people attacking us, rare UN deployments for engineer corps or humanitarian to go and build roads as a peacekeeper or such BUT...

The USA, through its own belief of American exceptionalism, has put its fingers in so many pies that it'll be impossible to dethaw from. Until the fall of the US as an empire in another World War or economic collapse, the USA government will remain to exist to be global police of its own making, so I went standard. (I also in some ways, despite being a bit of a commie, believe this is the best way of things. I do think conflicts like Kosovo would be worse without the western world's involvement. Same with the Gulf in the 90s.)

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7 hours ago, wolves said:

Until the fall of the US as an empire in another World War or economic collapse,

Perhaps neither of these things will do the Great Empire in, but something much similar to Ancient Rome. "The Great Oak effect," where the exterior continues to strong, powerful, and foreboding, with long, powerful branches and roots, but inside, it rots and molders due to it's own internal sickness, which will, probably sooner rather than later, become much more apparent on the outside, until, sometime down the road, someone figures this out and whacks the withered, atrophied shell of the once-great tree good.. This is my prediction.

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