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State of the Race: 73 Days Left


73 Day Poll  

19 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Did you watch any of the DNC

    • Yes, all or most of it.
    • I only saw the major speakers
    • I only saw highlights
    • I didn't watch it
  3. 3. Will the DNC Convention, including Biden's speech, help Biden in the election?

    • Yes, and for the long term
    • Yes, but only for the short-term
    • No, as everyone has pretty much made up their mind (Note: By this logic, Biden wins the election)
    • No, it will have no effect even though not everyone has made up their mind yet.
    • No, that DNC will turn off voters and rouse the opposition. It will backfire!
      0
    • I didn't watch the DNC
  4. 4. If you watched the DNC, do you expect the messaging and best speeches of the RNC to compare or exceed the DNC?

    • The RNC will have a greater message and greater speeches
    • The RNC will have either a greater message or greater speeches but not both
      0
    • Consider the excellent message and speeches, I think it will be incredibly difficult for the RNC to best it, but anything can happen.
    • The RNC does not have the potential in rhetoric, empathy, or ideas to compete with the DNC.
    • Other
    • I didn't watch the DNC
  5. 5. Do you feel better about Biden as a candidate after the DNC?

    • Yes, the DNC alleviated my concerns about his candidacy and/or age-based flaws.
    • No, my opinion hasn't changed
    • Yes, although I won't likely support him. I do think Trump is now fighting a real candidate and not a caricature.
    • No, and in fact his flaws are even more obvious
    • I didn't watch the DNC.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Overall, a Biden had more gains, but all very small. Trump had the bigger moves, but neither significan unless they continue. 

It is noticeable that this time last year, Clinton was +3 vs Trump. Biden is +8.6 vs Trump--he's been consistent around +8 or higher for a month or more. Clinton never did this.

If there is a Convention bounce, it will show up in next week's polls. 

The map is unchanged.

Categories 73 Days A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 8.6 (+0.2) Biden +0.1 Biden +0..6
AZ avg Biden 3.6 (+0.1) Biden 0 Biden +0.7
FL avg Biden 5.4 (+0.1) Biden 0 Biden -2.2
GA avg Trump 0.9 (-0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump -0.4
IA avg Trump 1.3 (-0.1) Trump +0.1 Trump +1.0
MI Avg Biden 7.4 (+0.1) Biden -0.3 Biden 0
MN avg Biden 5.2 (+0.1) Biden -0.4 Biden -5.9
MO avg Trump 5.4 (-0.1) Trump +0.1 Trump -0.1
NV avg Biden 6.9 (+0.2) Biden +0.2 Biden +0.2
NH Avg Biden 8.8 (-0.4) Biden -0.6 Biden +1.3
NC avg Biden 1.4 (+0.1) Biden -0.3 Biden -0.8
OH avg Biden 0.5 (+0.1) Biden -0.1 Biden -1.6
PA Avg Biden 6.1 (-0.4) Biden -0.3 Biden -0.7
SC avg Trump 6.5 (-0.1) Trump +0.2 Trump -0.1
TX avg Trump 1.8 (0) Trump +1.3 Trump +1.8
WI Avg Biden 6.8 (0) Biden -0.3 Biden -0.3
Trump Approval 41.8 (-0.3) 0.3 1.6
Trump Disapproval 54.1 (+0.3) -0.5 -1.6
Favorability Biden 13.0 (-0.6) -2.5 1.3
Direction of the Country -45.2 (0) -1 0.3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (0) Dem -0.2 Dem -2.0
Betting Markets Biden 56.6 (+0.1) -1.7 -4.1
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +3    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +5.6    

 

kWllG.png

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To answer 1., if the election were today, Dems would immediately move to impeach Trump for attempting to unconstitutionally change the date of the election (probably because he wants to avoid any mail-in ballots - so sneaky!). There would be total chaos. Massive lines and voting irregularities. Fist fights outside polling stations. Angry charges of "Why didn't you tell us?" And then no one would accept the results.

Just like what's going to happen on Nov. 3rd!

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11 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

To answer 1., if the election were today, Dems would immediately move to impeach Trump for attempting to unconstitutionally change the date of the election (probably because he wants to avoid any mail-in ballots - so sneaky!). There would be total chaos. Massive lines and voting irregularities. Fist fights outside polling stations. Angry charges of "Why didn't you tell us?" And then no one would accept the results.

Just like what's going to happen on Nov. 3rd!

Do you really believe that? I think they just ignore Trump when Biden wins. 
 

11 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I didn't watch the DNC, but I did watch this, which is probably more important in the grand scheme of things.

 

I saw that too, while watching the DNC. It is funny.

I’m a little surprised you don’t watch the conventions considering you make US election games. I’d imagine you’d be interested or at least curious, if not an eager observer as a US election game-maker. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

I’m a little surprised you don’t watch the conventions considering you make US election games.

Takes too much time. Might watch Biden's speech in the background while working.

 

1 minute ago, vcczar said:

Do you really believe that? I think they just ignore Trump when Biden wins. 

Who is 'they'? Trump is already setting the stage to contest the election results by questioning the integrity of mail-in ballots. Dems likewise are setting the stage with continued Russian interference accusations, as well as counter-accusations re mail-in.

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17 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

To answer 1., if the election were today, Dems would immediately move to impeach Trump for attempting to unconstitutionally change the date of the election (probably because he wants to avoid any mail-in ballots - so sneaky!). There would be total chaos. Massive lines and voting irregularities. Fist fights outside polling stations. Angry charges of "Why didn't you tell us?" And then no one would accept the results.

Just like what's going to happen on Nov. 3rd!

I thought we were talking about the U.S., not Uganda...

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Perhaps I should study Ugandan politics to see where things might be going?

I released a fan-made Uganda 2011 scenario for the old P4E2008 game quite a while ago. I've updated the logos and few other graphics on it since.

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If school wasn't a thing I probably would have watched the DNC. Besides that, once the RNC is done the general election will officially be in full swing.

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16 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I saw that too, while watching the DNC. It is funny.

I’m a little surprised you don’t watch the conventions considering you make US election games. I’d imagine you’d be interested or at least curious, if not an eager observer as a US election game-maker. 

 

14 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Takes too much time. Might watch Biden's speech in the background while working.

 

4 minutes ago, Cenzonico said:

If school wasn't a thing I probably would have watched the DNC. Besides that, once the RNC is done the general election will officially be in full swing.

Not having a television in my apartment (I haven't had one for over a decade, and I don't really miss it) puts a crimp in such plans, if I had them as a dedicated agenda for those evenings.

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42 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

To answer 1., if the election were today, Dems would immediately move to impeach Trump for attempting to unconstitutionally change the date of the election (probably because he wants to avoid any mail-in ballots - so sneaky!). There would be total chaos. Massive lines and voting irregularities. Fist fights outside polling stations. Angry charges of "Why didn't you tell us?" And then no one would accept the results.

Just like what's going to happen on Nov. 3rd!

I thought you'd typed "massive lions" and now I'm disappointed that wasn't the case.

;c)

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@Conservative Elector 2 So do you really think Kid Rock, the Covington Kids, Scott Baio, the MyPillow Guy, the racist gun couple, and checks notes the demon sperm lady... are going to beat the DNC?

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3 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Image may contain: 7 people, meme, text that says 'In case anyone needs a laugh, here are the RNC's featured speakers: OUTE RAN The MAGA hat kid from Covington Catholic MyPillow Guy The Demon Sperm Doctor Kid Rock Scott Baio Racist gun couple'

Hah, I just referenced this!

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4 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I mean, is Scott Baio?  ;c)

I wonder if they’re still letting Steve Bannon speak....

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Won't he have to remote in from prison?

Since when has that stopped Trump’s GOP?

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18 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Image may contain: 7 people, meme, text that says 'In case anyone needs a laugh, here are the RNC's featured speakers: OUTE RAN The MAGA hat kid from Covington Catholic MyPillow Guy The Demon Sperm Doctor Kid Rock Scott Baio Racist gun couple'

What a line up of speakers! I'm sure it will beat the DNC with flying colours! how is the couple racist though?

Edited by Cenzonico
Line up, there we go!
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12 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

@Conservative Elector 2 So do you really think Kid Rock, the Covington Kids, Scott Baio, the MyPillow Guy, the racist gun couple, and checks notes the demon sperm lady... are going to beat the DNC?

Well, first of all I didn't even check yet who's going to speak there. I assume it will be a lot of Republican heavyweights such as senators and governors and yes I believe Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio or Lindsey Graham will likely be able to deliver great speeches which will outperform the DNC in regards to common sense and real messaging.

In regards to the people mentioned above: the MyPillow guy will be most likely Minnesota's next governor. I read the Covington Story yesterday for the first time and I still don't understand what the whole incident was about. Somewhat crazy. For the St. Louis couple I already stated that I don't see any wrongdoing in their behavior. I believe it's your right under the 2nd amendment to defend your home against intruders by all available means. I have no proof the crowd wanted to enter their home, but I also don't have a proof they did not. The couple could give strong remarks for any business owner whose store was destroyed during the protests. Many of them blacks by the way, so I don't see exactly how destroying things will help the fight against racism.

I don't know anything besides their names about Kid Rock and Scott Baio. When it comes to the Demon Sperm doctor, well, I remember shaking my head when hearing about her the first time. I didn't dig deeper into this stuff, it's just too much to handle...

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

I know what they did but I don't see how it was racially charged. If I'm just dumb and can't see it then sorry.

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Just now, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Well, first of all I didn't even check yet who's going to speak there. I assume it will be a lot of Republican heavyweights such as senators and governors and yes I believe Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio or Lindsey Graham will likely be able to deliver great speeches which will outperform the DNC in regards to common sense and real messaging.

What common sense message CAN actually be said to justify Trump's Presidency continuing? Realistically, here. And keeping the term "common sense," in mind. A term has been a huge weak spot of the Trump Administration and everything it has done and everyone who has actively supported it. In fact, a term virtually non-existent in substance in that whole mix.

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11 minutes ago, Cenzonico said:

I know what they did but I don't see how it was racially charged. If I'm just dumb and can't see it then sorry.

Fair enough.  As with most things short of rounding up all the black people you can find and hanging them from the nearest tree, the racism is not always blatant.

In this case, they saw a large group of mostly black people, unarmed, marching down a street calling for the right to exist, and the couple found this to be so threatening that they immediately retrieved their nearest assault rifle and at one point actually pointed a pistol at someone.

Keep in mind, these people were just walking down the street.  Loudly, sometimes!  But just walking.  Not attacking people.  Not even messing up anyone's freshly mowed grass.  And their response is to get an assault rifle?  What did they see that made them fear for their lives so badly that they felt the need to introduce an assault rifle into the mix, other than just seeing unarmed black people exhibiting their constitutionally-guaranteed right to peacefully assemble?

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