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Biden/Trump margins vs. Clinton/Trump results


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This is how the 2020 polls compare to the 2016 results (rounding up/down on numbers--for less than 0.5, I give a "1" to the winner/leader):

  • AZ:
    • Clinton -3
    • Biden +4
  • FL:
    • Clinton -1
    • Biden +5
  • GA:
    • Clinton -5
    • Biden -1
  • IA:
    • Clinton -9
    • Biden -1
  • MI:
    • Clinton -1
    • Biden +7
  • MN:
    • Clinton +1
    • Biden +5
  • MO:
    • Clinton -18
    • Biden -6
  • NV:
    • Clinton +2
    • Biden +7
  • NH:
    • Clinton +1
    • Biden +9
  • NC:
    • Clinton -4
    • Biden +1
  • OH:
    • Clinton -8
    • Biden +1
  • PA:
    • Clinton -1
    • Biden +7
  • SC:
    • Clinton -14
    • Biden -7
  • TX:
    • Clinton -9
    • Biden -2
  • WI:
    • Clinton -1
    • Biden +7
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19 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Also interesting would be adding Clinton polling results for this point in election cycle vs. Biden polling results, by state.

If I can find time I’ll do that. Maybe not today though. 

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48 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Also interesting would be adding Clinton polling results for this point in election cycle vs. Biden polling results, by state.

I did a brief look at the state polls for 2016 listed on Wikipedia. However, early September is as far back as they go (post-Convention, I assume). For these, Clinton exceeds Biden's margin only in PA. Biden is often doubling Clinton's early September margin. However, that correlates with Biden basically having double Clinton's GE margin vs Trump. 

I don't know if you've watched the Convention but they're really banking on Biden's likability and empathy -- two things missing from both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The Convention, except for the odd virtual format, is a major improvement on Clinton's. The speeches have been better (generally) and the messaging is way better. It isn't rudderless and complacent like the 2016 Convention.

 

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4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I don't know if you've watched the Convention

None. Only clip I've seen is some guy in weird clothes starting to sing.

5 minutes ago, vcczar said:

they're really banking on Biden's likability and empathy

Makes sense.

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