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State of the Race: 74 Days Left


74 Day Poll  

18 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Steve Bannon was just arrested for defrauding Trump border wall donors, and a court just ruled against Trump's attempt to hide his tax records. Both on the day Biden gives his nomination speech. Which is bigger news?

    • Bannon's arrest (Yet, another Trump ally faces charges...)
    • Trump failing to block the release of his taxes.
  3. 3. Which of the following Trump scandals, whether by his administration or by his allies, will hurt his reelection chances?

    • None of these will have an impact because Trump is like teflon, scandals don't hurt his support.
    • None of these will have an impact because they're all or mostly all "FAKE NEWS!"
    • Donald Trump's impeachment.
    • The Mueller Investigation, which led to 34 indictments and 7 convictions or guilty pleas.
    • Scott Pruitt's resignation after being investigated for alleged corruption for personal gain.
      0
    • George Papadopoulos pleasing guilty for making false statements related to his Russian contacts.
      0
    • Michael Flynn pleading guilty to lying to the FBI over his conversations with Russian envoys
    • Rick Gates pleading guilty for lying about his work in Ukraine and about his tax and bank fraud
    • Michael Cohen pleading guilty to illegal campaign donations, tax evasion, bank fraud. Also, he was involved with covering up Trump's alleged affairs with other women.
    • Paul Manafort charged with tax fraud, bank fraud, and obstruction.
      0
    • Ryan Zinke resigned when investigated for questionable real estate deals.
      0
    • Roger Stone found guilty for obstruction, witness tampering and making false statements
    • Alex Acosta resigned after it was learned that he had at one time helped let Jeffrey Epstein off easy during a court case involving a sex scandal with underage girls
      0
    • Donald Trump's alleged affairs with other women--Stormy Daniels, Karen McDougal, etc.
    • Donald Trump's alleged friendship with deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein
    • Donald Trump's refusal to release his tax returns and his attempts at blocking their release.
    • Donald Trump's frequent rate of making false or misleading comments.
    • Donald Trump's use of Twitter to attack critics.
    • Donald Trump ordering federal troops on US citizens on American soil (BLM protests).
    • Trump administration family seperation policy at the border, which has occasionally led to preventable deaths and other tragedies.
    • Donald Trump's alleged attempt to bribe Ukraine by withholding Congressional authorized foreign aid for dirt on the Bidens
    • Donald Trump's alleged involvement of working with Russia to secure his election victory over Hillary Clinton.
    • Donald Trump's threat of locking up his political opponent (Hillary Clinton)
      0
    • Other not listed--too many to list (Name below)


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

There weren't as many polls as usual for a Thursday. Trump makes very minor gains. The most notable shift is in MN, which saw Biden move down 0.4%. This is the same C-grade polling place that saw a tight race in MN two weeks ago. MN polling is few, and they haven't had a good polling company there in awhile. Last time they did, Biden was up over 10%. That is not to say that that is true or that the C-grade polling place is wrong. I state this only because all the other states on my list are well-covered and with more reliable polls more often. 

Trump's approval has now returned to 42%. 

The forecast map for today is the same as it has been the last two days. 

Categories 74 Days A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 8.4 (-0.1) Biden -0.1 Biden +0.4
AZ avg Biden 3.5 (0) Biden -0.1 Biden +0.6
FL avg Biden 5.3 (0) Biden -0.1 Biden -2.3
GA avg Trump 1.0 (+0.1) Trump +0.6 Trump -0.3
IA avg Trump 1.4 (0) Trump +0.2 Trump +1.1
MI Avg Biden 7.3 (-0.1) Biden -0.4 Biden -0.1
MN avg Biden 5.1 (-0.4) Biden -0.5 Biden -6.0
MO avg Trump 5.5 (0) Trump +0.2 Trump 0
NV avg Biden 6.7 (0) Biden 0 Biden 0
NH Avg Biden 9.2 (-0.1) Biden -0.2 Biden +1.7
NC avg Biden 1.3 (0) Biden -0.4 Biden -0.9
OH avg Biden 0.4 (-0.1) Biden -0.2 Biden -1.7
PA Avg Biden 6.5 (0) Biden 6.5 (0) Biden -0.3
SC avg Trump 6.6 (+0.1) Trump +0.3 Trump 0
TX avg Trump 1.8 (-0.2) Trump +1.3 Trump +1.8
WI Avg Biden 6.8 (+0.1) Biden -0.3 Biden -0.3
Trump Approval 42.1 (+0.2) 0.6 1.9
Trump Disapproval 53.8 (-0.1) -0.8 -1.9
Favorability Biden 13.6 (0) Biden -1.9 Biden +1.9
Direction of the Country -45.2 (0) -1 0.3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (0) Dem -0.2 Dem -2.0
Betting Markets Biden 56.5 (-0.2) Biden -1.8 Biden -4.2
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +7    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +1.4    

ROAGd.png

 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

The most notable shift is in MN, which saw Biden move down 0.4%. This is the same C-grade polling place that saw a tight race in MN two weeks ago.

Ya, would be nice to have some more polls commissioned for MN.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Ya, would be nice to have some more polls commissioned for MN.

I think these polls will lead to that. We also need some MT polls because that state looks closer than it should be. I think maybe more NH polls, because Biden is almost at 10% lead there, and that might not be accurate. 

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Nevermind, I got my initial post here wrong.

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24 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

"Trump administration's family seperation policy at the border" hmm...

Indeed, perhaps one of the most damaging episodes of the administration. It was a huge part of the 2018 blue wave.

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2 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Indeed, perhaps one of the most damaging episodes of the administration. It was a huge part of the 2018 blue wave.

Up to that point, I'd assumed Melania was as much a victim of Trump as the rest of us are.

Then she went on a sightseeing tour of children in cages, wearing this.

Melania Trump wears 'I really don't care, do U?' jacket to border
 

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43 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Up to that point, I'd assumed Melania was as much a victim of Trump as the rest of us are.

Then she went on a sightseeing tour of children in cages, wearing this.

Melania Trump wears 'I really don't care, do U?' jacket to border
 

That was at a time when the media was being critical of her

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40 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

That was at a time when the media was being critical of her

So?

You can’t wear that coat on that trip.
 

 Frankly, you can’t be a person of privilege and wear that coat at all.

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What's more likely to Hurt Biden is the DNC sucking up to Moderates that will always certainly vote for Biden Anyway. Meanwhile ignoring, fear mongering and shitting on disgruntled Progressives. Also the fact that AOC got only 60 seconds while Republicans and a War Criminal was a speaker. Lol

 

Edit: LITERAL War Criminal. 

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15 minutes ago, CentristGuy said:

What's more likely to Hurt Biden is the DNC sucking up to Moderates that will always certainly vote for Biden Anyway. Meanwhile ignoring, fear mongering and shitting on disgruntled Progressives. Also the fact that AOC got only 60 seconds while Republicans and a War Criminal was a speaker. Lol

 

Edit: LITERAL War Criminal. 

I think he had to suck up to moderates to be honest. Progressives are the ones who vote blue if they vote. 

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1 hour ago, CentristGuy said:

They don't have to shit on their base to do so. 

This fair. I didn't take it that way but that's a fair statement. 

 

1 hour ago, CentristGuy said:

Listen to this rant by Kyle Kulinski. 

 

I have disagreements with his rant, but I can see where he is coming from. I do think the bipartisan support is good. 

I also highly agree about Rogan supporting Bernie, but Rogan is pretty much a centrist. And also was a big fan of Tulsi. 

A worry I've heard from Republicans is Biden will be a Trojan horse. Appealing to Republicans and ending up farther left than Obama.

Also not a fan of him calling Democrats, diet Republicans. He's being intentionally devise. He also is saying hes for what Americans want but America is pretty moderate. Both parties would be better off moving to the center anyway imo. 

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2 hours ago, SilentLiberty said:

This fair. I didn't take it that way but that's a fair statement. 

 

I have disagreements with his rant, but I can see where he is coming from. I do think the bipartisan support is good. 

I also highly agree about Rogan supporting Bernie, but Rogan is pretty much a centrist. And also was a big fan of Tulsi. 

A worry I've heard from Republicans is Biden will be a Trojan horse. Appealing to Republicans and ending up farther left than Obama.

Also not a fan of him calling Democrats, diet Republicans. He's being intentionally devise. He also is saying hes for what Americans want but America is pretty moderate. Both parties would be better off moving to the center anyway imo. 

Americans are pretty Moderate. I don't know where you get the data. And you may be correct. 

However If the Democrats focus on Economic Populism, I think they'd win in a Landslide.

Americans aren't really moderates, they just like to call themselves moderates and they want Bipartisanship https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/01/22/how-politically-moderate-are-americans-less-than-it-seems/ 

But talk to them about Economic Policy individually, and they'll agree with Left of Center Policies most of the Time. 

From UBI: https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/463055-more-voters-support-universal-basic-income

 

Medicare For All: https://morningconsult.com/2020/04/01/medicare-for-all-coronavirus-pandemic/

 

Public Option: https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/polling-a-public-option-for-health-insurance

 

Green New Deal-type Policy: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/americans-like-the-green-new-deals-goals-but-question-its-cost-that-is-if-theyve-even-heard-of-it-2019-11-27

 

Marijuana Legalization: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/11/14/americans-support-marijuana-legalization/

Taxing the Rich: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-inequality-poll/majority-of-americans-favor-wealth-tax-on-very-rich-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1Z9141

Social Security: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/19/preventing-social-security-benefit-cuts-is-a-top-priority-in-2020-election.html

 

And many more issue. There's this illusion of a Moderate America because that is how the Corporate Media and their Corporate Overlords frame things. And another reason for this is because Special Interest and the Rich is overrepresented in your Government. That is why when Candidates are powered by the people, they are more left than usual. 

 

And as much as I'd like to attack Biden for being Moderate. His Policies aren't, it's Progressive (but not enough). Biden is framing himself as a Moderate as evident of the DNC shitshow. But if he follows his Platform by the book he'd be fairly more Left than Obama. 

One can even make the argument that Foreign Policy wise, even the most Right Wing Republican, don't wanna meddle with Foreign Wars and Interference. And that's a fairly Leftist Position. 

I apologize for my English. 

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2 hours ago, SilentLiberty said:

Both parties would be better off moving to the center anyway imo. 

I'd agree if only the Overton Window isn't very Right Wing. But it is, Foreign Policy wise and in a lot of Issues most Democrats are Center Right. If Bernie is considered the Center Left and Kamala Harris the Center, then I'd agree with moving ti the Center. Lol

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43 minutes ago, CentristGuy said:

Americans are pretty Moderate. I don't know where you get the data. And you may be correct. 

However If the Democrats focus on Economic Populism, I think they'd win in a Landslide.

Americans aren't really moderates, they just like to call themselves moderates and they want Bipartisanship https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/01/22/how-politically-moderate-are-americans-less-than-it-seems/ 

But talk to them about Economic Policy individually, and they'll agree with Left of Center Policies most of the Time. 

From UBI: https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/463055-more-voters-support-universal-basic-income

 

Medicare For All: https://morningconsult.com/2020/04/01/medicare-for-all-coronavirus-pandemic/

 

Public Option: https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/polling-a-public-option-for-health-insurance

 

Green New Deal-type Policy: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/americans-like-the-green-new-deals-goals-but-question-its-cost-that-is-if-theyve-even-heard-of-it-2019-11-27

 

Marijuana Legalization: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/11/14/americans-support-marijuana-legalization/

Taxing the Rich: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-inequality-poll/majority-of-americans-favor-wealth-tax-on-very-rich-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1Z9141

Social Security: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/19/preventing-social-security-benefit-cuts-is-a-top-priority-in-2020-election.html

 

And many more issue. There's this illusion of a Moderate America because that is how the Corporate Media and their Corporate Overlords frame things. And another reason for this is because Special Interest and the Rich is overrepresented in your Government. That is why when Candidates are powered by the people, they are more left than usual. 

 

And as much as I'd like to attack Biden for being Moderate. His Policies aren't, it's Progressive (but not enough). Biden is framing himself as a Moderate as evident of the DNC shitshow. But if he follows his Platform by the book he'd be fairly more Left than Obama. 

One can even make the argument that Foreign Policy wise, even the most Right Wing Republican, don't wanna meddle with Foreign Wars and Interference. And that's a fairly Leftist Position. 

I apologize for my English. 

For the record your English was and is fantastic.

Thank you for your post and for the links as well. It's always nice to learn something. In many ways you're correct and very very insightful.

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