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Biden leads Trump in Voter Retention


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Here's the chart I was looking for yesterday. This was released by USC Dornsife:

  • 92% of voters that voted for Clinton will vote for Biden.
  • 88% of voters that voted Trump in 2016 will vote for him again in 2020.
  • 9% of 2016 Trump voters will vote for Biden. 
  • 4% of Clinton voters will vote for Trump.
  • 4% of 2016 Trump voters and Clinton voters will vote 3rd party.
  • 71% of those that had voted 3rd party will vote for a major party this election--41% for Biden, 30% for Trump, 28% 3rd party again.
  • 52% of those that stayed home and didn't vote in 2016 will vote for Biden.
  • Only 32% of those that didn't vote in 2016 will vote for Trump.
  • 16% of those that didn't vote will vote 3rd party.

Daybreak-Poll-08182020-01-2048x2048.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

9% of 2016 Trump voters will vote for Biden.

Hmmm what was that about Kasich not leading an exodus of 10% of the party?

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4 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

Proud member of the 28 percenters club. 

9% wya

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12 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

The real question is where do they live.  

If this was a poll of swing state voters, that's extremely exciting.

But if it's folks who live in NY and CA, it won't get us anywhere.

Looks to be a national effort 

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

Hmmm what was that about Kasich not leading an exodus of 10% of the party?

I'm not sure if these 9% are all attributable just to Kasich. The poll took place before Kasich gave the speech actually.

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38 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Looks to be a national effort 

Yep, I understood.  I just meant that it doesn't necessarily mean anything, unless the increase is taking place in the states that could actually sway things.

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8 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I'm not sure if these 9% are all attributable just to Kasich. The poll took place before Kasich gave the speech actually.

Kasich has been on TV, radio, internet as the leading GOP NeverTrump for years. I don't think anyone was suggesting that the speech was going to lead to an instant 9% gain in cross over voters. The argument was that a user on this forum didn't think Kasich would help in getting 10% Trump-to-Biden voters and/or flip Ohio

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9 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Kasich has been on TV, radio, internet as the leading GOP NeverTrump for years. I don't think anyone was suggesting that the speech was going to lead to an instant 9% gain in cross over voters. The argument was that a user on this forum didn't think Kasich would help in getting 10% Trump-to-Biden voters and/or flip Ohio

That certainly makes sense.

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