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State of the Race: 75 Days Left


Day 75 Poll  

17 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Considering Trump's polling improvement from Day 100 to Day 75 has been sluggish (see my comments as to why), what do you expect for the next 25 days?

    • Trump will still make sluggish gains at about the same pace.
    • Trump will perform worse in the 2nd quarter of the last 100 days, making it more difficult for him to catch up.
    • Trump is just getting heated up, he will show stark improvement, putting Democrats on the defensive.
    • Not only will Trump perform worse in the 2nd quarter, but Biden will see gains, putting Trump's campaign in disarray.
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  3. 3. If one of the two had to be president, which would you prefer.

    • A far-right Q-Anon conspiracy theorist activist
    • A far-left Democratic Socialist activist
  4. 4. Which of the following describes you politically?

    • I am fiscally left-wing
    • I am fiscally moderate
    • I am fiscally right-wing
    • I am socially left-wing
    • I am socially moderate
    • I am socially right-wing
    • I am a foreign policy isolationists and not a military interventionist
    • I am a foreign policy interventionist but not a military interventionist
    • I am a foreign policy and military policy interventionist
    • I am a protectionist (strong, high tariffs) regarding trade
    • I believe in tariffs only for rare retaliation
    • I believe in free trade with tariffs as low as practical
    • I believe in lenient immigration laws
    • I believe in a strong border and border control but lenient laws for immigrants in the country already or wishing to come here.
    • I believe in both a strong border and restrictive immigration laws to reduce immigration
    • I am a Socialist and I think capitalism is a failed system and none of it is useful.
    • I favor Socialism over Capitalism since one is better for the country than the other. However, there are useful ideas from the other system that I welcome.
    • I favor a near-equal hybrid of both systems, seeing them as mutually help to each other rather than at odds with one another--each covering the weaknesses of the other, even if it dilutes their purity..
    • I favor Capitalism over Socialism since one is better for the country than the other. However, there are useful ideas from the other system that I welcome.
    • I am a capitalist ad I think Socialism is a failed system and none of it is useful.
    • Other (mention below)
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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

@Conservative Elector 2 is the only conservative to identify as a social conservative and for restrictive immigration to decrease immigation. I wonder if that is primarily a European stance?

The immigration thing certainly is. Europe suffered the most in 2015 and still has to handle issues which are basically not to handle with an ineffective EU and a weak government which don't want to act. Therefore I am against this kind of immigration we saw back then. Additionally Europe got shocked by many terrorist attacks committed by former immigrants. Just yesterday an Iraqi immigrant from 2016 injured three people in Berlin in what is believed by authorities to be a terrorist attack again. It's sickening. An Eritrea man for example is charged with murdering an 8 year old boy last year by tossing him in front of an arriving train in a train station in Frankfurt am Main. Such instances have largely defined European Conservative immigration policy.

The option regarding immigration I chose is not the best option fitting my believes. I am generally in favor of immigration, when it's good for the country. For example I'd strongly favor immigration from Western Europe (or the US in the other direction), from Israel or East Asia. I'd lower requirements for immigration and acquiring citizenship likewise. I am not a racist and I know there are great people from the Middle East or Africa as well, but most people from these areas which Europe had to welcome people from simply do not contribute to a better society. They don't even try to. That makes me question immigration from these areas, especially something which is called ''economical immigration'' here. I am supportive of honest immigration to make a better life for your family, but I am against immigration solely feeding the purpose to live off the welfare state welcoming you and that's exactly what happens in Austria. I know many examples first hand. If there are like thousands Syrian immigrants who honestly work for their families and contribute to the betterment of our state, I'd gladly welcome them. 

The social conservative stance is probably a minority opinion of me, as my views are largely defined by US standards in this area. Abortion for instance is not a very big issue in Austria. You are already labelled a radical here when supporting a mandatory counseling with a medical doctor for women before going for an abortion. A total ban (with exception to the life of the mother) is not even mentioned anywhere.

 

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19 minutes ago, Herbert Hoover said:

 Not to mention, Republicans are more likely to come out and vote rather than Democrats who are much more concerned with COVID. 

I've actually been wondering about this.  Generally speaking...and this is of course overgeneralizing...but Republicans tend to be older and Democrats tend to be younger.  By definition, it's the Republicans who SHOULD be more nervous about voting in person -- they're more susceptible to the disease and potentially death.

But the ones who follow Trump have decided the global pandemic doesn't exist or at least isn't a big deal, even though they are the ones most at risk.

That said, I feel confident that Democrats, Independents, and even Republicans who are outraged at Trump are desperate to defeat him.  They make put on beekeeper outfits to stay safe during the process, but they're voting one way or the other.  

Here in Ohio, we're preparing for "record turnout".

That's not to say that Trump will definitely lose.  I certainly know more people in Ohio planning to vote for him than planning to vote against.  But Democrats are not going to be staying home (if they have to go in person to vote).

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8 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

She's 30 years old and just got elected last year.  She's not my favorite either, but I don't think we should judge her against the accomplishments of her 82-year-old peers.

Fair enough, I referred rather to her views than to her accomplishments.

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Just now, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Fair enough, I referred rather to her views than to her accomplishments.

Saying that she could have accomplished 1000 policy initiatives successfully, and I'd still call her failed, if I supported none of them.

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1 minute ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Saying that she could have accomplished 1000 policy initiatives successfully, and I'd still call her failed, if I supported none of them.

I mean...if the definition of success is convincing me personally to agree with their ideas, at least 50% of politicians are failures. ;c)

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Just now, Actinguy said:

I've actually been wondering about this.  Generally speaking...and this is of course overgeneralizing...but Republicans tend to be older and Democrats tend to be younger.  By definition, it's the Republicans who SHOULD be more nervous about voting in person -- they're more susceptible to the disease and potentially death.

But the ones who follow Trump have decided the global pandemic doesn't exist or at least isn't a big deal, even though they are the ones most at risk.

That said, I feel confident that Democrats, Independents, and even Republicans who are outraged at Trump are desperate to defeat him.  They make put on beekeeper outfits to stay safe during the process, but they're voting one way or the other.  

Here in Ohio, we're preparing for "record turnout".

That's not to say that Trump will definitely lose.  I certainly know more people in Ohio planning to vote for him than planning to vote against.  But Democrats are not going to be staying home (if they have to go in person to vote).

The one advantage Democrats have is that historically they have more registered voters that are registered with their party. They also don't have significantly more cross-party voters either. Thus Republicans have to have be reliable voters to have a chance of even surviving. Democrats have a luxury that leads to apathy that they'll have the numbers to compete even if they stay at home. This is sort of a voter-genetic thing with the parties. The South has a long history of being a one-party state with blacks and poor whites not participating, because suppressed. Generationally, it still doesn't seem to be routine. What I would like to see is which countries, regions, cities have reliable high turnout

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

I mean...if the definition of success is convincing me personally to agree with their ideas, at least 50% of politicians are failures. ;c)

Yeah, maybe my wording is somewhat awkward, but you get what I mean. Let's settle it with a ''bad politician''. 

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6 minutes ago, vcczar said:

The one advantage Democrats have is that historically they have more registered voters that are registered with their party. They also don't have significantly more cross-party voters either. Thus Republicans have to have be reliable voters to have a chance of even surviving. Democrats have a luxury that leads to apathy that they'll have the numbers to compete even if they stay at home. This is sort of a voter-genetic thing with the parties. The South has a long history of being a one-party state with blacks and poor whites not participating, because suppressed. Generationally, it still doesn't seem to be routine. What I would like to see is which countries, regions, cities have reliable high turnout

Yeah, I remember reading once that there are far more Democrats than Republicans, but Republicans are far more likely to vote, and that's why things never particularly tilt one way or the other for too long.  But I've looked since then and never found the stats to back either statement up.

I do remember that for a long time, college students were extremely unlikely to show up to elections (including primaries).  Obama in 2008 made a big push towards enrolling them to vote, and folks dismissed it because they wouldn't show up anyway -- he was wasting time and resources.  Of course, they showed up in big numbers for him.  If I recall correctly, this may have been the origin of his slogan "YES WE CAN".

EDIT:  Of course, it doesn't really help much to have way more Democrats than Republicans if most of them live in heavy blue states already, such as NY or CA.  Move to Ohio with me, fellow Trump haters!  We have work to do.

;c)

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4 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Maybe just "Democrat politician"?  ;c)

When it comes to policies yes, but AOC is on the worse end of them for me. Personality is also a huge factor of me determining whether I like someone or not. For example I like Cory Booker despite he's a Democrat. Not to mention Andrew Yang.

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2 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

When it comes to policies yes, but AOC is on the worse end of them for me. Personality is also a huge factor of me determining whether I like someone or not. For example I like Cory Booker despite he's a Democrat. Not to mention Andrew Yang.

Fair enough.  I do agree that AOC is too abrasive for my taste.  I too like Cory Booker a lot.  I was hoping he'd be Biden's VP before Biden announced he'd pick a woman.  I think Booker has a lot of potential, just needs more substance first.

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1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

Fair enough.  I do agree that AOC is too abrasive for my taste.  I too like Cory Booker a lot.  I was hoping he'd be Biden's VP before Biden announced he'd pick a woman.  I think Booker has a lot of potential, just needs more substance first.

I think AOC has been a lot more toned down this past year than she was her first two or three years. My guess is that Pelosi kind of told her how she's got to behave if she ever wants any sort of major committee assignment. She might also be considering a Senate run or something soon. It could be that the media is paying less attention to her, however.

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1 hour ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

You are already labelled a radical here when supporting a mandatory counseling with a medical doctor for women before going for an abortion. A total ban (with exception to the life of the mother) is not even mentioned anywhere.

It's fully legal in Austria only during the first 3 months. After that, only if a health threat to the mother, incurable problem with the fetus, or if the mother is under 14.

This is more strict than in Canada.

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

I think AOC has been a lot more toned down this past year than she was her first two or three years. 

AOC was only sworn into office last year!  Granted, COVID has made everything feel like an eternity.  ;c)

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Just now, Actinguy said:

AOC was only sworn into office last year!  Granted, COVID has made everything feel like an eternity.  ;c)

Your right. I thought she was in office for 4 years already.

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13 hours ago, Patine said:

Yes, immigration is a big trigger issue in EU politics.

Yes it is. Take this: a few weeks ago Turks, who are aligned with a fascist organization called ''Grey Wolves'' were rioting and vandalizing in the 10th district of Vienna (which is one of the worst). They also clashed with left-wing Kurds which led to much damage. I am seriously asking myself why these people are in Austria and I believe such immigrants who hate their new country, demolish buildings, cars etc. and obviously love their original country as well as their President Erdogan way more should be deported immediately. 

I wouldn't tolerate such behavior committed by Austrians as well, but where to deport them? 

The problem with left-wing European parties is, that they do not acknowledge the slightest fault in an uncontrolled immigration policy with no intended integration afterwards. They are like, everything works fine and this leads to gains of right-wing parties. The left in Europe could be more successful if they hold anti-immigration stances, as Europeans largely favor left-wing economic policies.

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11 hours ago, admin_270 said:

It's fully legal in Austria only during the first 3 months. After that, only if a health threat to the mother, incurable problem with the fetus, or if the mother is under 14.

This is more strict than in Canada.

That's true. Norbert Hofer, the right-wing presidential candidate spoke of a mandatory counselling before an abortion and was soon deemed a radical by left-wingers. He didn't even speak of a ban. In Austria an abortion is considered a crime which doesn't get punished. They created a loophole in the law or so.

Yeah, probably because Austria is a catholic country in which abortions are not discussed very often publicly. Too bad Canada is even more lenient here...

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1 hour ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Yes it is. Take this: a few weeks ago Turks, who are aligned with a fascist organization called ''Grey Wolves'' were rioting and vandalizing in the 10th district of Vienna (which is one of the worst). They also clashed with left-wing Kurds which led to much damage. I am seriously asking myself why these people are in Austria and I believe such immigrants who hate their new country, demolish buildings, cars etc. and obviously love their original country as well as their President Erdogan way more should be deported immediately. 

I wouldn't tolerate such behavior committed by Austrians as well, but where to deport them? 

The problem with left-wing European parties is, that they do not acknowledge the slightest fault in an uncontrolled immigration policy with no intended integration afterwards. They are like, everything works fine and this leads to gains of right-wing parties. The left in Europe could be more successful if they hold anti-immigration stances, as Europeans largely favor left-wing economic policies.

I thought the Grey Wolves were declared defunct in 2013...

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53 minutes ago, Patine said:

I thought the Grey Wolves were declared defunct in 2013...

I have no idea on that, maybe they disbanded officially but continued in the underground?! Newspapers labelled them as Grey Wolves so I guess they showed symbols of them or something like that.

Wikipedia says they operate since 1968 to date https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_Wolves_(organization)

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