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State of the Race: 75 Days Left


Day 75 Poll  

17 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Considering Trump's polling improvement from Day 100 to Day 75 has been sluggish (see my comments as to why), what do you expect for the next 25 days?

    • Trump will still make sluggish gains at about the same pace.
    • Trump will perform worse in the 2nd quarter of the last 100 days, making it more difficult for him to catch up.
    • Trump is just getting heated up, he will show stark improvement, putting Democrats on the defensive.
    • Not only will Trump perform worse in the 2nd quarter, but Biden will see gains, putting Trump's campaign in disarray.
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  3. 3. If one of the two had to be president, which would you prefer.

    • A far-right Q-Anon conspiracy theorist activist
    • A far-left Democratic Socialist activist
  4. 4. Which of the following describes you politically?

    • I am fiscally left-wing
    • I am fiscally moderate
    • I am fiscally right-wing
    • I am socially left-wing
    • I am socially moderate
    • I am socially right-wing
    • I am a foreign policy isolationists and not a military interventionist
    • I am a foreign policy interventionist but not a military interventionist
    • I am a foreign policy and military policy interventionist
    • I am a protectionist (strong, high tariffs) regarding trade
    • I believe in tariffs only for rare retaliation
    • I believe in free trade with tariffs as low as practical
    • I believe in lenient immigration laws
    • I believe in a strong border and border control but lenient laws for immigrants in the country already or wishing to come here.
    • I believe in both a strong border and restrictive immigration laws to reduce immigration
    • I am a Socialist and I think capitalism is a failed system and none of it is useful.
    • I favor Socialism over Capitalism since one is better for the country than the other. However, there are useful ideas from the other system that I welcome.
    • I favor a near-equal hybrid of both systems, seeing them as mutually help to each other rather than at odds with one another--each covering the weaknesses of the other, even if it dilutes their purity..
    • I favor Capitalism over Socialism since one is better for the country than the other. However, there are useful ideas from the other system that I welcome.
    • I am a capitalist ad I think Socialism is a failed system and none of it is useful.
    • Other (mention below)
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vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75

As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

We are now one quarter through the last one hundred days! My map below is different from my usual forecast map. This map is based exclusively on the shift from Day 100 to Day 75. This map reflects what Election Day will look like if first quarter trends continue at exactly the same rate from now until election day. It also reflects how large Biden's lead is. Despite gains by Trump since day 100, he still isn't making large enough gains yet. Biden would win 296-242. This map is a little misleading. For instance, MN's trend is based off only one MN poll. It's more likely than not that Biden will hold that state. It is the only battleground state that doesn't get polled regularly, which probably suggests it might not be much of a battleground state. That ME district and NE district also don't get many polls. 

Lastly, in regards to the PV. If this trend continues, Biden will be +10 on election day. So this would be something like this on election day:

Biden/Harris 296 EV 54% PV

Trump/Pence 242 EV 44% PV

3rd parties 0 EV 2% PV

This would be the first defeat of an incumbent that doesn't involve a major 3rd party since Gerald Ford's defeat in 1976. The electoral votes would be almost identical to that election (298-240), but Carter and Ford had a closer PV margin 50%-48%. Trump is unliked and unwanted by most voting Americans. 

Who wins the first quarter? Biden. As stated, if these trends continue, Biden is looking at a convincing win. Trump is not doing enough currently to convince voters that he deserves 4 more years. 

 

Categories 75 Days A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 8.5 (+0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden +0.5
AZ avg Biden 3.5 (-0.1) Biden -0.1 Biden +0.6
FL avg Biden 5.3 (0) Biden -0.1 Biden -2.3
GA avg Trump 0.9 (0) Trump +0.5 Trump -0.4
IA avg Trump 1.4 (+0.1) Trump +0.2 Trump +1.1
MI Avg Biden 7.4 (-0.2) Biden -0.3 Biden 0
MN avg Biden 5.5 (-0.1) Biden 5.5 (0) Biden -5.6
MO avg Trump 5.5 (+0.1) Trump +0.2 Trump 0
NV avg Biden 6.7 (-0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden 0
NH Avg Biden 9.3 (0) Biden 0 Biden +1.8
NC avg Biden 1.3 (0) Biden -0.5 Biden -0.9
OH avg Biden 0.5 (0) Biden -0.1 Biden -1.6
PA Avg Biden 6.5 (+0.1) Biden 0 Biden +0.3
SC avg Trump 6.5 (0) Trump +0.3 Trump -0.1
TX avg Trump 2.0 (0) Trump +1.4 Trump +2.0
WI Avg Biden 6.7 (-0.1) Biden -0.5 Biden -0.4
Trump Approval 41.9 (0) 0.2 1.7
Trump Disapproval 53.9 (0) -0.8 -1.8
Favorability Biden 13.6 (-0.2) Biden -0.4 Biden -1.9
Direction of the Country -45.2 (-0.7) -44.5 (-0.8) 0.3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (+0.2) Dem -0.4 Dem -2.0
Betting Markets Biden 56.7 (-0.2) Biden -1.7 Biden -4.0
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +3 Clinton +2 Clinton +2
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +5.5 Biden +2.1 Biden +2.5

3XWzZ.png

*Note: This above map is not my forecast map. 

This is my forecast map (not the trend map):

DWdeD.png

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

I accidentally picked Trump when I meant to pick Biden. 

Too bad. Now go order a Maga hat. Just kidding.

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I'm not sure that I'm "completely" left wing socially -- we've already established that I strongly support LGBT, and also think we have a serious problem in the way police treat people of color and that those who keep children in cages will literally burn in hell -- but I'm also against legalizing marijuana except for real medicinal use (not California medicinal use) and support drug tests for welfare.  

I know that will kick off a tidal wave of responses, so let me preface it by saying I understand drug testing may cost more than the money saved by not giving welfare to those on drugs -- I just don't care.  It's not about cost savings for me.  It's about giving people the kick in the pants they need to get their lives together.

I'm saying this as someone who used to literally be homeless, sleeping in my car for months, then picked myself up and now make six figures: it absolutely can be done.  We should help everyone who needs help -- but we can't do it alone, the person we're helping has to do their part too.

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I'm trying to find it again, but I saw a poll posted on Twitter that showed the following:

  • 92% of Democrats that voted Clinton will vote for Biden with 4% voting Trump and 4% votng 3rd party
  • 88% of Republicans that voted Trump in 2016 will vote for him again with 8% voting Biden and 4% voting 3rd party. 
  • Something like 71% of those that voted 3rd party will vote for either Biden or Trump this time, with Biden having over 10% lead on this group over Trump.
  • Of those that didn't vote last time, about 10% more will vote Biden to Trump.

I'll try to find the poll, since I'm might be off a % or two. 

@admin_270 @Conservative Elector 2 @Actinguy @ThePotatoWalrus @Reagan04 @Hestia11 and others might find this interesting.

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38 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

that those who keep children in cages will literally burn in hell

Interesting that you're supporting a candidate for President who you think will literally burn in hell.

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From a different poll. Harris Poll: "Eighty-two percent of Republican voters said they support Trump, while 11 percent said they'd vote for Biden if the election were held today."

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@vcczar As much as it cut deep in my heart, I had to pick the Democratic Socialist because to believe in Q is to be mentally unsound. In a race between AOC and MTG or Loomer, for instance, it's got to be AOC by a hair. For at least she, I know, doesn't think that the government is run by baby-eating Satanists. Last night was the Florida primary and the GOP hydra as revealed itself. I'm sure you'll appreciate this joke I made.

Cut off one head,

02steveking-HFO-mediumSquareAt3X.png?width=644&height=644

Two more shall grow back in its place

Efv2p8NXkAEswcd.png?width=663&height=644

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Regarding the last question, I think a ubi isn't a bad idea anymore, though I disagree that it should be as much as Yang proposed. I think it should supplement a working-class income, not replace it. Where I live you can live off of $1000 a month if you had no liabilities, or children, and split rent with someone.

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11 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

@vcczar As much as it cut deep in my heart, I had to pick the Democratic Socialist because to believe in Q is to be mentally unsound. In a race between AOC and MTG or Loomer, for instance, it's got to be AOC by a hair. For at least she, I know, doesn't think that the government is run by baby-eating Satanists. Last night was the Florida primary and the GOP hydra as revealed itself. I'm sure you'll appreciate this joke I made.

As much as I hate QAnon myself I have to say these people at least might have better views in other areas of policy making. We already know AOC is a completely failed politician, therefore I'd pick the QAnon princess if forced to vote between one of these two. In this situation it really doesn't matter anymore, which person represents you in congress because both choices are horrible.

However, I would not vote for MTG, Loomer or Boebert in a race against a straight-forward, establishment Democrat. Electing them is an embarrassment to your district. 

Love your joke btw.

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.

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3 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

As much as I hate QAnon myself I have to say these people at least might have better views in other areas of policy making. We already know AOC is a completely failed politician, therefore I'd pick the QAnon princess if forced to vote between one of these two.

This may be a critical difference between the two of us. I don't care if AOC is a "failed politician". That's missing the forest for the trees. QAnon people like Loomer and MTG are Nazi-sympathizers and are putting people of color at serious risk if in the White House. It was embarass the United States the world over to elect a Loomer, Boebert, or MTG as President. Would AOC be embarassing as well? Of course. But not nearly to the same degree nor for the same reasons. Thankfully we'll never have to confront this choice.

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@vcczar I didn't select one of your options on social policy because I don't fit neatly into one of those 3 like I do as I am very clearly fiscally and economically right wing. I would describe myself as a civil libertarian and if you had the option I'd choose socially libertarian as well. For instance, I favor lenient immigration laws and making it far far easier for immigrants to come to the US and attain citizenship. I favor widescale drug legalization. I am Pro-LGBT and I am in favor of ending both social and economic systemic racism. I am also radically Pro-Life. I favor an end to the surveillance state. As you can see, my stances largely revolve around reducing the size of government and enforcing the basic tenet of equal protection under law. I believe liberty works and for me that manifests itself as support for Free Markets, Individual Freedoms, and Equal Protection Under Law.

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A choice between a QAnon believer and a Democratic Socialist, vcczar with the hard hitting questions! The 4th question is interesting because although I consider myself a Libertarian I lean more towards Anarcho-Capitalism more than anything. So I guess that would equal far-right fiscally and far-left socially? 

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5 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

This may be a critical difference between the two of us.

Still love any discussion with you :D

5 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

QAnon people like Loomer and MTG are Nazi-sympathizers and are putting people of color at serious risk if in the White House. It was embarass the United States the world over to elect a Loomer, Boebert, or MTG as President. Would AOC be embarassing as well? Of course. But not nearly to the same degree nor for the same reasons. Thankfully we'll never have to confront this choice.

While I am not fully aware about Q connections with Nazism (I have to admit I am not that deep into Q stuff, because I tend to roll my eyes, when I come across their messages), I believe many more people would suffer under an AOC administration as well - regardless of their ethnicity. Socialism and communism are dangerous ideologies, which do not distinguish between race, gender or any other category. They are equally bad for all people. 

Electing Q or socialist candidates is an embarrassment either way, therefore it would be legitimate to simply not cast a ballot under these circumstances. Usually I am strongly against not voting at all. Still I believe a Q candidate could have better policies in a few areas. Let's take abortion. You state you are radically pro-Life. So I am in regards to this. I could not bring myself to vote for a pro-choice candidate. That's one example why I would choose a QAnon supporter over a far-left socialist supporter. In case the opponent is a Q guy and the pro-life dude were otherwise sane, I'd back the pro-life but still not happily...

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By the way I think QAnon people are worse than Steve King. Correct me if I am wrong, but King at least doesn't believe in the baby-eating satanists ruling the US, does he?

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5 minutes ago, billay said:

Also interesting 45% of this board thinks Trump is going to win. I'd ne curious to hear their reasoning.

I think that many undecided would break for Trump and that there may be an under polling of groups that would vote Trump. Not to mention, Republicans are more likely to come out and vote rather than Democrats who are much more concerned with COVID. Biden has a lot of work to do on appealing to independents that he hasn’t reached yet and really hammering in an identity for himself other than “Not Trump”. 

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@Conservative Elector 2 is the only conservative to identify as a social conservative and for restrictive immigration to decrease immigation. I wonder if that is primarily a European stance?

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45 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

We already know AOC is a completely failed politician. 

 

She's 30 years old and just got elected last year.  She's not my favorite either, but I don't think we should judge her against the accomplishments of her 82-year-old peers.

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25 minutes ago, billay said:

Also interesting 45% of this board thinks Trump is going to win. I'd ne curious to hear their reasoning.

He won last time and he will do absolutely anything to win, including just refusing to admit defeat after the votes are counted.  He will do literally everything that he can possibly think of to remain President until the day he dies.

There's a reasonable chance that he succeeds in doing so.

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