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State of the Race: 76 Days Left


76 Day Poll  

17 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Did you watch the Convention Speeches?

    • Yes, all of them.
    • Yes, but only the main speakers like Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, John Kasich, etc.
    • I only saw highlights or parts of speeches.
    • I didn't see any of the speeches.
  3. 3. If you watched the Speeches, check those that you think gave a great, memorable speech:

    • I didn't watch the speeches
    • Amy Klobuchar
    • Catherine Cortez Masto
      0
    • Andrew Cuomo
    • Gretchen Whitmer
      0
    • Jim Clyburn
      0
    • Gwen Moore
    • Doug Jones
      0
    • John Kasich
    • Bernie Sanders
    • Michelle Obama
    • I saw many of these speeches and found none of them to be great or memorable.
      0
  4. 4. A Senate Committee led by Republican Marco Rubio just found proof of closer ties between Russia and Trump's 2016 campaign. Will this news hurt Trump's reelection chances? (Check all that apply)

    • Yes, this will sink him.
      0
    • It might hurt him temporarily
    • It won't have any impact
    • I think Rubio allowing this news to be released during an election is more likely going to hurt Rubio than Trump
    • I think this is fake news even if it was from an intelligence committee led by Republicans
      0
    • I think it will only hurt Paul Manafort
    • Other (mention below)
      0


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Joe Biden pretty much runs the table a day after Trump had done so to him. However, there are no significant movements. Although, if Montana drops another point in support of Trump, it will be added to my list of battleground states. If Biden keeps pulling the polls back to him every time Trump has a brief surge, he might be able to keep his huge lead. Trump really needs about a week's worth of what he did yesterday towards the end of this election. 

Trump's approval had been 42% for the first time in this last 100 days, but after one day, it has now fallen in the 41% area. However, for the first time in the last 100 days, his disapproval rating is now in the 53% range. It was almost 56% at the 100 day mark. 

One good sign for Biden is that he's been greatly outpolling Clinton vs. Trump, occasionally doubling how Clinton was polling against Trump. 

No changes to the map. 

 

Categories 76 Days A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 8.4 (+0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden +0.4
AZ avg Biden 3.6 (+0.1) Biden +0.2 Biden +0.7
FL avg Biden 5.3 (+0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden -2.3
GA avg Trump 0.9 (+0.3) Trump +0.3 Trump -0.4
IA avg Trump 1.3 (-0.1) Trump -0.2 Trump +1.0
MI Avg Biden 7.6 (+0.1) Biden +0.2 Biden +0.2
MN avg Biden 5.6 (+0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden -4.5
MO avg Trump 5.4 (-0.1) Trump -0.2 Trump -0.1
NV avg Biden 6.8 (+0.2) Biden +0.4 Biden +0.1
NH Avg Biden 9.3 (+0.1) Biden +0.3 Biden +1.8
NC avg Biden 1.3 (+0.1) Biden -0.1 Biden -0.9
OH avg Biden 0.5 (+0.1) Biden +0.2 Biden -1.6
PA Avg Biden 6.4 (+0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.4
SC avg Trump 6.5 (0) Trump (0) Trump -0.1
TX avg Trump 2.0 (-0.1) Trump +1.2 Trump 2.0
WI Avg Biden 6.8 (-0.2) Biden +0.6 Biden -0.3
Trump Approval 41.9 9(-0.2) 41.9 (0) 1.7
Trump Disapproval 53.9 (+0.3) 0.7 1.8
Favorability Biden 13.8 (0) Biden -0.2 Biden +2.1
Direction of the Country -44.2 (0) -0.5 1.3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.4 (0) Dem -1.8 Dem -2.2
Betting Markets Biden 56.9 (-0.4) Biden -2.3 Biden -2.8
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +3.5 Clinton +6 Clinton +5
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +4.9 Biden +2.3 Biden +3

NnnYA.png

 

 

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For three, since I've only seen various highlights I selected the option that said didn't watch any speeches.

If you could only pick two speeches from the night(not including Michelle Obama's) to be the most impactful/must see who would it be?

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1 minute ago, SilentLiberty said:

For three, since I've only seen various highlights I selected the option that said didn't watch any speeches.

If you could only pick two speeches from the night(not including Michelle Obama's) to be the most impactful/must see who would it be?

Kasich and Sanders

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I believe you're referring in 4. to this

https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/512487-senate-panel-releases-final-report-on-russian-interference-detailing

If so, don't think a 1,000 page report which is Volume 5 in the Senate series will have much of an impact, but perhaps there's something explosive in there.

From the article linked, seems the big revelation is that an associate of Manafort was a Russian intelligence officer.

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2 minutes ago, billay said:

Bernie and Michelle saved what was a total disaster of night 1.

The first hour was bad, mostly because of the format. I'd add John Kasich to your list of people that saved it. 

My scoring for Convention Night 1 was:

- Format of the Conventions 3/10

- Speeches 9/10

- Messaging 10/10. 

If it were a standard convention with a delegate crowd, I think it would be the best first night of DNC since 2008 or before. I was expecting the entire thing to be underwhelming, but Kasich, Sanders, and M Obama each gave their best speeches of their careers, arguably.

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After watching it, I genuinely think, unfortunately, That Biden may not get any convention bump, and Trump may have one (possibly a 4-5 point one). Me and my group of friends/s.o I talk to about this stuff consistently with, really think Trump has something under his sleeve for the convention, (That may appeal to moderates + his base, rising to 46-47% or so in polls after) We will see, let's hope he just flops. Bernie and Michelle where the only good parts of the night, speaking wise. 

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14 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

After watching it, I genuinely think, unfortunately, That Biden may not get any convention bump, and Trump may have one (possibly a 4-5 point one). Me and my group of friends/s.o I talk to about this stuff consistently with, really think Trump has something under his sleeve for the convention, (That may appeal to moderates + his base, rising to 46-47% or so in polls after) We will see, let's hope he just flops. Bernie and Michelle where the only good parts of the night, speaking wise. 

I am extremely skeptical of what he can do to win over moderates after 4 years of governing. Because Trump, to quote noted DNC speaker John Kasich, "is at a crossroad". Should Trump continue to appeal to his base; meaning double down on nativism and cultural grievance? Or will he try to soften his tone to appeal to suburban whites that have been turned off by his rhetoric? Given that the Covington Catholic school student and the couple that pointed their guns at the protesters from St Louis are on the speaking list; I feel Trump is doubling down on cultural grievance. 

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3 hours ago, SilentLiberty said:

For three, since I've only seen various highlights I selected the option that said didn't watch any speeches.

If you could only pick two speeches from the night(not including Michelle Obama's) to be the most impactful/must see who would it be?

Kasich since it really laid out to Republicans that have doubts about Biden but dont feel comfortable voting for Trump, on why they can trust Biden. 

Sanders, essentially telling the leftwing of the Democratic Party there is too much at stake this year and Joe Biden will help fight for the values we believe in. 

 

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6 hours ago, vcczar said:

The first hour was bad, mostly because of the format. I'd add John Kasich to your list of people that saved it. 

My scoring for Convention Night 1 was:

- Format of the Conventions 3/10

- Speeches 9/10

- Messaging 10/10. 

If it were a standard convention with a delegate crowd, I think it would be the best first night of DNC since 2008 or before. I was expecting the entire thing to be underwhelming, but Kasich, Sanders, and M Obama each gave their best speeches of their careers, arguably.

Kasich at this point like the Lincoln Project is a bunch of grifters though. Hes not going to sway the 10% of Republicans against Trump to vote Biden.

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3 minutes ago, billay said:

Kasich at this point like the Lincoln Project is a bunch of grifters though. Hes not going to sway the 10% of Republicans against Trump to vote Biden.

I disagree, and I don't believe you.

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23 minutes ago, billay said:

Kasich at this point like the Lincoln Project is a bunch of grifters though. Hes not going to sway the 10% of Republicans against Trump to vote Biden.

Trump is the Grifter-in-Chief, and has the Snakes Oil codes, and runs the Grand Ol' Con-game, and heads the Offices of Charlatans and Shuysters, and the Accounting of the Duped.

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

Trump is the Grifter-in-Chief, and has the Snakes Oil codes, and runs the Grand Ol' Con-game, and heads the Offices of Charlatans and Shuysters, and the Accounting of the Duped.

Checkout Kaisch and the other Republican clowns who spoke last night. They arent exactly a shinning example of honesty.

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2 hours ago, billay said:

Kasich at this point like the Lincoln Project is a bunch of grifters though. Hes not going to sway the 10% of Republicans against Trump to vote Biden.

Kasich only needs to swing Ohio

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12 minutes ago, billay said:

Checkout Kaisch and the other Republican clowns who spoke last night. They arent exactly a shinning example of honesty.

You trying to imply that Kasich and Never Trump Republicans are equivalently dishonest as Trump or more dishonest as Trump is amusing. Kasich probably deserves a profile in courage chapter for taking the political risk of breaking with Trump for the greater good of the country. My belief is that in 20 years Kasich, Flake, Corker, Weld, Romney, Powell, and all the other Republicans that defied Trump will be remembered positively in history, books, etc. It will be akin to Southern Democrats that refused to sign the Southern Manifesto and did sign the Civil Rights Acts and Voting Acts, even if it cost them their political careers and incurred the wrath of their party members of their state. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

You trying to imply that Kasich and Never Trump Republicans are equivalently dishonest as Trump or more dishonest as Trump is amusing. Kasich probably deserves a profile in courage chapter for taking the political risk of breaking with Trump for the greater good of the country. My belief is that in 20 years Kasich, Flake, Corker, Weld, Romney, Powell, and all the other Republicans that defied Trump will be remembered positively in history, books, etc. It will be akin to Southern Democrats that refused to sign the Southern Manifesto and did sign the Civil Rights Acts and Voting Acts, even if it cost them their political careers and incurred the wrath of their party members of their state. 

They made no impact in 2016 why will 2020 be different?

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Just now, billay said:

He didnt do it last time though.

Ohio wasn't a tossup state in 2016. Trump won it by 8pts, despite the state preferring Kasich in the parimaries to Trump. Biden is leading Trump in Ohio now. You need to put thought into your arguments.

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Just now, billay said:

They made no impact in 2016 why will 2020 be different?

Think about it!  

1) 2020 is not 2016. It is a new election. Four strange, long years have passed.

2) Ohioan have had a chance to see what a Trump presidency is like.

3) Joe Biden is NOT Hillary Clinton

4) Biden has consistently outpolled Clinton's numbers vs Trump, often doubling them. Biden is polling beyond the margin of error in several battleground states--way better than Clinton ever did. Although, not in Ohio, I admit.

5) However, Biden is strong in Ohio relative to Clinton. It's a tossup and it wasn't with Clinton at this point.

6) With Ohio truly in play, Democrats are likely going to focus on it more. 

7) Kasich probably carries more weight as a NeverTrumper that has been consistently against Trump, which gives him more authority with those Republicans wanting the party to move away from Trump

8.) Kasich will likely also have an impact on moderate and conservative independents that don't feel the country is better off now than it was 4 years ago.

This list could go on.

Think before you argue. 

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35 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Think about it!  

1) 2020 is not 2016. It is a new election. Four strange, long years have passed.

2) Ohioan have had a chance to see what a Trump presidency is like.

3) Joe Biden is NOT Hillary Clinton

4) Biden has consistently outpolled Clinton's numbers vs Trump, often doubling them. Biden is polling beyond the margin of error in several battleground states--way better than Clinton ever did. Although, not in Ohio, I admit.

5) However, Biden is strong in Ohio relative to Clinton. It's a tossup and it wasn't with Clinton at this point.

6) With Ohio truly in play, Democrats are likely going to focus on it more. 

7) Kasich probably carries more weight as a NeverTrumper that has been consistently against Trump, which gives him more authority with those Republicans wanting the party to move away from Trump

8.) Kasich will likely also have an impact on moderate and conservative independents that don't feel the country is better off now than it was 4 years ago.

This list could go on.

Think before you argue. 

Ok found the Kaisch supporter.

Kaisch made no argument of substance it was the same argument Democrats make Orange Man bad. Now look at the latest poll numbers specifically the part about the economy. Trump is +10  over Biden on that issue. The economy will persuade more voters than Kaisch will. Last night Kaisch made no compelling argument about how Biden will be a better choice than Trump on the economy (which the president has a lead on)

Also Chris Christie Marco Rubio'd Kaisch on national TV. A moment which also went viral. The idea that Kaisch moved the 10% of the Republicans to Biden or even 5% is flat out non sense.

 

Stick to posting polls bruh it's what you're good at.

 

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4 minutes ago, billay said:

Ok found the Kaisch supporter.

Kaisch made no argument of substance it was the same argument Democrats make Orange Man bad. Now look at the latest poll numbers specifically the part about the economy. Trump is +10  over Biden on that issue. The economy will persuade more voters than Kaisch will. Last night Kaisch made no compelling argument about how Biden will be a better choice than Trump on the economy (which the president has a lead on)

Also Chris Christie Marco Rubio'd Kaisch on national TV. A moment which also went viral. The idea that Kaisch moved the 10% of the Republicans to Biden or even 5% is flat out non sense.

 

Stick to posting polls bruh it's what you're good at.

 

First sentence: I have no clue what you are referncing.

First paragaph: Please post the poll. It also sounds like you didn't listen or understand the speech. 

Second paragraph: If that went viral, why haven't I seen it. I'm on Twitter 24/7. I would have seen it if it went viral. 

Last sentence: Thanks for the compliment.

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

First sentence: I have no clue what you are referncing.

First paragaph: Please post the poll. It also sounds like you didn't listen or understand the speech. 

Second paragraph: If that went viral, why haven't I seen it. I'm on Twitter 24/7. I would have seen it if it went viral. 

Last sentence: Thanks for the compliment.

I'm am referencing the latest WSJ poll which you have the ability to look up. It sounds like you're the one who needs to be better informed.

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Just now, billay said:

I'm am referencing the latest WSJ poll which you have the ability to look up. It sounds like you're the one who needs to be better informed.

Well, you have to tell me what the poll is first. I can't look it up if you don't tell me what poll you are referncing. There's dozens of polls every day. 

Again, F-ing think! 

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@billay

Is this the poll? It's the most recent WSJ poll? Biden is beating Trump by 9 pts: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-leads-trump-50-to-41-in-poll-ahead-of-party-conventions-11597582800

Please tell me which Wall Street Journal poll you are referencing, so I know you didn't just make it up. 

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