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State of the Race: 77 Days Left


77 Day poll  

20 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. The Cook Political Report is now forecasting Democrat Jaimie Harrison (African-American chair of the DNC in South Carolina) as beating incumbent Sen. Lindsay Graham. Do you think this will hold?

  3. 3. If you could time-travel to any Democratic National Convention in the last 100 years, which would you like to observe?

    • 2020 - Biden/Harris because there's no time like the present.
    • 2016 - Clinton/Kaine because I want to see the first woman nominee and observe the shenanigans between the establishment and Sanders delegates.
    • 2012 - Obama/Biden because it was a relatively harmonious convention
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    • 2008 - Obama/Biden because of the optimism of the Hope and Change of an Obama presidency.
    • 2004 - Kerry/Edwards ... I honestly can't think of a reason to want to go to this convention, but maybe you do.
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    • 2000 - Gore/Lieberman because of the first Jewish VP nominee
    • 1996 - Clinton/Gore because of the optimism of an inevitable victory
    • 1992 - Clinton/Gore because of the energy and hope of a first Democratic president in 12 years.
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    • 1988 - Dukakis/Bentsen because I want to see Bill Clinton flub a keynote address
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    • 1984 - Mondale/Ferraro because I want to see the first woman VP nominee of a major party.
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    • 1980 - Carter/Mondale because I want to see Ted Kennedy's famous speech.
    • 1976 - Carter/Mondale because I want to see the optimsm of a potential Carter presidency.
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    • 1972 - McGovern/Eagleton (later changed to Shriver) because I want to see the first Convention operate with a 50 state primary.
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    • 1968 - Humphrey/Muskie because I want to see the final Convention operating under the old nominating process and the riots at the Conventions. Last chaotic Dem convention.
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    • 1964 - LBJ/Humphrey because I want to see RFK's speech and the optimism of an inevitable victory.
    • 1960 - JFK/LBJ -- I mean, it's JFK!
    • 1956 - Stevenson/Kefauver because I want to see JFK almost get named VP nominee.
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    • 1952 - Stevenson/Sparkman because I want to see a contested convention between the establishment and populist progressives (Estes Kefauver)
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    • 1948 - Truman/Barkley because I want to see Truman and the convention somehow pull together their conservative and progressive wings around the establishment as Truman appears to face a landslide defeat.
    • 1944 - FDR/Truman because I want to see FDR near death and see the progressive Wallace get replaced by Truman
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    • 1940 - FDR/Wallace because I want to see FDR get nominated for a 3rd term and Wallace get named as VP
    • 1936 - FDR/Garner -- can't see any real preference for this one, but maybe you do.
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    • 1932 - FDR/Garner - for FDR's famous speech
    • 1928 - Al Smith/Robinson - for the first Catholic nominee of a major party and for FDR's notable nomination speech.
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    • 1924 - John W Davis/Bryan -- To see a 103 ballot-contested convention and to see the last convention in which a conservative Democrat was the nominee of the party and the KKK was at the height of their political influence.
    • 1920 - James Cox/FDR - To see FDR pre-polio and to hear what people sounded like 100 years ago.
  4. 4. Which of the following have you collected at some point in your life? **Only include collections that you had that you would deem as being significant--whatever that means to you**

    • Coins/Paper Money
    • Stamps
    • Sports cards
    • Comic books
    • Figurines
    • First edition books
      0
    • Autographs
    • Buttons
    • Sneakers/tennis shoes
      0
    • Film posters
    • Political/Military/History Memorabilia
    • Vintage musical instruments or records
    • Vintage or historical clothing
      0
    • Objects of natural history (birds eggs, butterflies, snail shells, minerals, rocks, etc.)
    • Vintage/classic cars
    • Pez dispensers
    • Serial Killer/Murder/Sherlock Holmes collectible things
      0
    • Antiques
    • Playing card decks
    • Vintage/historical books
    • Vintage/historical newspapers
    • Other significant collection (mention below)


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. Also, I've alphabetized the state polling.

Trump runs the tables in respond to Biden running the tables the time before. Huge jump for Trump in TX. Only other significant movement was in NC, which saw Biden lose half a point lead in the state. 

In addition to this, Trump's average approval is at 42% for the first time in these last 100 days. Also, generic Democrats are losing support rapidly in the last few days.

Overall, this is probably the best daily polling for Trump and Republicans in the last 100 day period so far.

The forecast map changes TX from leans Trump to likely Trump. GA is now back to leans Trump. Biden is still forecasting a significant EC and PV victory. 

Categories 77 A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 8.3 (-0.2) Biden -0.1 Biden +0.3
AZ avg Biden 3.5 (-0.1) Biden +0.5 Biden +0.6
FL avg Biden 5.2 (-0.2) Biden -0.3 Biden -2.4
GA avg Trump 0.6 (+0.2) Trump +0.1 Trump -0.7
IA avg Trump 1.4 (+0.2) Trump 0 Trump +1.1
MI Avg Biden 7.5 (-0.2) Biden -0.3) Biden +0.1
MN avg Biden 5.5 (-0.1) Biden -1.8 Biden -5.6
MO avg Trump 5.5 (+0.2) Trump +0.1 Trump 0
NV avg Biden 6.6 (-0.1) Biden -0.1 Biden -0.1
NH Avg Biden 9.2 (-0.2) Biden -0.1 Biden +1.7
NC avg Biden 1.2 (-0.5) Biden -0.9 Biden -1.0
OH avg Biden 0.4 (-0.2) Biden -0.1 Biden -1.7
PA Avg Biden 6.3 (-0.2) Biden 0 Biden -0.5
SC avg Trump 6.5 (+0.2) 0 Trump -0.1
TX avg Trump 2.1 (+1.6) Trump +1.4 Trump +2.1
WI Avg Biden 7.0 (-0.1) Biden -0.2) Biden -0.1
Trump Approval 42.1 (+0.6) 0.6 1.9
Trump Disapproval 54.2 (-0.4) -0.5 -1.5
Favorability Biden 13.8 (-1.7) Biden -0.2 Biden +2.1
Direction of the Country -44.2 (0) -1.1 -1.3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.4 (-0.4) Dem -2.0 Dem -2.2
Betting Markets Biden 57.3 (-1.0) Biden -0.8 Biden -3.4
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +3 Clinton +5 Clinton +5
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +5.3 Biden +3.4 Biden +3

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11 minutes ago, billay said:

The new CNN poll has Biden up only 4%

 

They are blowing it.

Don't put too much stock into any single poll on any single day, in either direction.  There's always a big headline of "THIS POLL REVEALS SHOCKING NEW INFORMATION THAT DEFINITELY IS TRUE AND MATTERS" and it's functionally just clickbait.  Any one survey on any topic should be taken with a grain of salt.  You really need to see the aggregate -- all the polls together over time, which way things are moving, figure out what might be moving them, and even then you still don't really know much.  

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Don't put too much stock into any single poll on any single day, in either direction.  There's always a big headline of "THIS POLL REVEALS SHOCKING NEW INFORMATION THAT DEFINITELY IS TRUE AND MATTERS" and it's functionally just clickbait.  Any one survey on any topic should be taken with a grain of salt.  You really need to see the aggregate -- all the polls together over time, which way things are moving, figure out what might be moving them, and even then you still don't really know much.  

Polls have been trending more toward Trump the past few weeks. 

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Collections:  I had coins when I was a kid.  I think my great grandfather maybe gave them to me.  I think my sister and I each got maybe $40 dollars in old silver dollars, and we'd looked them up in a book and determined that each batch was actually worth about $400 and that A) was a whole ton of money to us back then, being kids from a relatively poor family and B ) was almost certainly not actually true. Ha.  But the coins were kept in my mom's safe, I think, and we decided to live with my dad after the divorce so we never saw those coins again.

Now my wife is very into antiquing.  I could take it or leave it, but I enjoy picking up old board games and occasional political history items.  Got a ton of topical magazines from the 1920s to 1980s, that kind of thing.  Wife collects military and medical history novelties.  She has a doctor's prescription for heroin, for example, and an empty bottle of formaldehyde from the 1800s. 

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25 minutes ago, billay said:

The new CNN poll has Biden up only 4%

 

They are blowing it.

Yeah, that's only one poll. It's also a volatile poll. It's been like 12%, 4%, 12%, 4%--going back and forth every month. Biden is 8.3% in average polls. It's been basically this for months.

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8 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Collections:  I had coins when I was a kid.  I think my great grandfather maybe gave them to me.  I think my sister and I each got maybe $40 dollars in old silver dollars, and we'd looked them up in a book and determined that each batch was actually worth about $400 and that A) was a whole ton of money to us back then, being kids from a relatively poor family and B ) was almost certainly not actually true. Ha.  But the coins were kept in my mom's safe, I think, and we decided to live with my dad after the divorce so we never saw those coins again.

Now my wife is very into antiquing.  I could take it or leave it, but I enjoy picking up old board games and occasional political history items.  Got a ton of topical magazines from the 1920s to 1980s, that kind of thing.  Wife collects military and medical history novelties.  She has a doctor's prescription for heroin, for example, and an empty bottle of formaldehyde from the 1800s. 

Most of my collecting was done as a kid. As an adult, I've had to move so much that I usually give things away. Coins (about 200)/paper money (about 50 bills) are all that remains of my collection. Oh, and about 5 historical newspapers from 1850s-1880s-- Harper's Weekly. However, since they were beginning to fall apart, I took out the most interesting pages and put frames around them. They hang in my office. 

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2 hours ago, Wiw said:

My ears are buzzing. These people are willing to allow a dystopia to happen, but why?!

Go outside. This is the best time in human history to be alive (in the western, first world). There are no slave trades, there isn't indentured servitude, and there are no serfs. Despite what you might think, the president himself doesn't actually have all that much power, so even if Trump was a dystopian fascist (which he isn't), our government has the necessary checks and balances to prevent that. Turn off the news, go outside, say hi to your neighbors, wave to those kids riding their bikes down the street. Despite everything going on, it's not a bad time to be alive, and all things considered, it's a good life.

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Dang. I saw something a few weeks ago how Trump was starting to outspend Biden in NV and it looks like its beginning to work.

 

Down 4% in NV according to RCP. Is it possible theres a lack of latino support for Biden which could be a story that's been ignored?

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9 minutes ago, billay said:

Dang. I saw something a few weeks ago how Trump was starting to outspend Biden in NV and it looks like its beginning to work.

 

Down 4% in NV according to RCP. Is it possible theres a lack of latino support for Biden which could be a story that's been ignored?

According to all polls for Nevada, Biden is down only 0.1% since I started the last 100 days analysis. That's basically the same. No dent. 

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41 minutes ago, vcczar said:

According to all polls for Nevada, Biden is down only 0.1% since I started the last 100 days analysis. That's basically the same. No dent. 

Only up 4% in a state like NV with Trumps summer is pretty bad.

 

The newest WSJ poll has Trump up by 10% on Biden when it comes to the economy  too.

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55 minutes ago, billay said:

Only up 4% in a state like NV with Trumps summer is pretty bad.

 

The newest WSJ poll has Trump up by 10% on Biden when it comes to the economy  too.

Remember that Nevada always polls well for Republicans.

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1 hour ago, billay said:

Dang. I saw something a few weeks ago how Trump was starting to outspend Biden in NV and it looks like its beginning to work.

 

Down 4% in NV according to RCP. Is it possible theres a lack of latino support for Biden which could be a story that's been ignored?

Nevada is about 25% Latino.  Significant, but they're not the only people there and Nevada was the first state Biden didn't get crushed in in the primaries.  And Latinos are not voting for Donald "Some of them, I assume, are good people" Trump.

Biden could potentially lose the state because it's a swing state and that's how swings work.  But if he does, it won't be because of the Latino vote.

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Just now, billay said:

Do you think Trump will win NV?

No. I think like 2016 and 2018, polls will paint a very rosy picture for the NVGOP and like they have been doing since 2010 they'll kick the football and the poll's Lucy will pull it away from them.

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1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

No. I think like 2016 and 2018, polls will paint a very rosy picture for the NVGOP and like they have been doing since 2010 they'll kick the football and the poll's Lucy will pull it away from them.

Whose Lucy?

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Just now, Patine said:

Whose Lucy?

Plesae tell me you've watched/read/seen/heard of the Peanuts comics. Charlie Brown and his family and friends?

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Just now, Reagan04 said:

Plesae tell me you've watched/read/seen/heard of the Peanuts comics. Charlie Brown and his family and friends?

I have, yes. But I sincerely thought you were namedropping a Nevada politician by first name alone, and thus it didn't quite click.

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3 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

No. I think like 2016 and 2018, polls will paint a very rosy picture for the NVGOP and like they have been doing since 2010 they'll kick the football and the poll's Lucy will pull it away from them.

Honestly I think California will go red before Nevada does, no matter how many decades it takes.

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2 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Honestly I think California will go red before Nevada does, no matter how many decades it takes.

California likely won't go red until a completely different political party other than the GOP in the U.S . uses that party colour, no matter how many decades it takes...

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