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Postponing elections


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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Obviously that's too late. But would the chances by much higher if held in, say, December?

The chances of having a vaccine that's been widely distributed will be virtually the same, which is to say practically non-existent.

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Obviously that's too late. But would the chances by much higher if held in, say, December?

What would make you think that it would be?  

Does the possibility exist that we'll have a vaccine by December?  Sure.  Is it statistically much more likely that it will exist within the six weeks between November 4th and December 15th than the 11 weeks between now and November 3rd or the ~200 weeks between January 20th, 2021 and 2025?  Definitely not.

If it gets to be mid-October and serious scientists are telling us "Hey, we can vaccinate the world by November 12th", then sure, let's postpone a couple of days.  But absent a reason to actually believe that's real, we're not going to delay our elections based on make-believe.

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Interestingly, Ardern says she will not delay the election again if outbreaks continue.

The rationale in NZ seems to be that the lockdown in Auckland has made election campaigning more difficult, and that voters should be able to have a proper campaign, not the health issues associated with in-person voting.

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Yeah I was never in favor of postponing any elections when the situation is not absolutely bad, but it's clearly a politically motivated move from Prime Minister Ardern. The numbers are getting worse and she hopes to get it down again to get re-elected (I never trusted New Zealand's numbers in the first place and I don't trust most countries numbers, not even my own).

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23 hours ago, admin_270 said:

New Zealand has recently announced it is postponing elections due to some COVID-19 cases being detected in the country (after 100 days with none).

Do you think this was the right move?

Awhile back, Trump suggested the possibility of delaying elections due to COVID-19. 

Do you think that would be the right move?

It won't happen but let us even pretend it would be authorized

It could not be further than mid december

Why?

Because either way it would relaunch a very high controversy

I just want to recall everyone that the Bush v Gore case of 2000 has been settled on this single point

Florida could no longer be fully recounted according to the supreme court because the electors had to vote in december in order that the president be fully recognized the 20th of January

If the presidential inauguration would be postponed too because of covid it would relaunch that kind of controversy, the american constitutionnal doctrine has always put first to respect the constitution, including presidential terms which can not last more than 4 years.

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1 hour ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Yeah I was never in favor of postponing any elections when the situation is not absolutely bad, but it's clearly a politically motivated move from Prime Minister Ardern. The numbers are getting worse and she hopes to get it down again to get re-elected (I never trusted New Zealand's numbers in the first place and I don't trust most countries numbers, not even my own).

She is still riding super high in the polls. I doubt she would be beaten either way. Like someone said, NZ, like the UK, has a period of time in which elections take place. This date still falls under the category. 

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On 8/17/2020 at 12:50 PM, admin_270 said:

New Zealand has recently announced it is postponing elections due to some COVID-19 cases being detected in the country (after 100 days with none).

Do you think this was the right move?

Awhile back, Trump suggested the possibility of delaying elections due to COVID-19. 

Do you think that would be the right move?

Well New Zealand has a parliamentary system. It is extremely common for elections day in parliamentary systems to not be regularly timed; a massive difference these forms of government and the US system.

Was this the right move? 

In their nation...sure. I guess. I'm not really invested in the New Zealand election, so I'm really impartial about it.

Should Trump delay the election?

God no. The elections have operated like clockwork for 100 years, and should for the next 100.  

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