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State of the Race: 88 Days Left


88 Day Poll  

19 members have voted

  1. 1. See my data in the first post: Who would win if the election were today?

  2. 2. Would Michelle Obama as VP help Biden win the election in November better than Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and all the other often named VP choices would?

  3. 3. Will you match any of the Conventions, even if they are all done remotely?

    • Yes, both of them.
    • RNC only
      0
    • DNC only
    • I'll only watch highlights
    • No


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Today was a much, much better day for Trump than Biden. In fact, this has been Trump's week. If this continues, I'd be very worried about Biden.

However, there are some signs for Biden that are positive. 1) His lead is still a landslide lead. 2) This week was Hillary Clinton's polling peak in 2016 and Biden beats her in every single areas. 3) Trump's approval has been going up, very slowly, throughout the weak but today it went back down. 3) Biden is showing improvement in states that matter in the weekly shift. 

The more confusing aspect of this is that Trump is making slow gains while the favorability gap is getting better for Biden. 

If the Trump campaign has any control of this election, they might be trying to prevent from peaking too soon. They might like these slow gains. If I'm Biden, I'm getting a little worried, but I'd be thankful of having such a huge lead at the moment. 

Gen Avg Biden 7.5 (-0.3) Biden -0.7
MI Avg Biden 7.6 (-0.2) Biden -0.5
WI Avg Biden 7.4 (-0.1) Biden +0.3
PA Avg Biden 6.0 (-0.1) Biden -0.6
NH Avg Biden 8.8 (-0.2) Biden -0.5
NC avg Biden 2.3 (+0.1) Biden +0.3
FL avg Biden 5.1 (-0.2) Biden -0.9
GA avg Trump 0.9 (+0.1) Trump -0.3
TX avg Tie 0 (Biden -0.1) Biden -0.6
OH avg Biden 0.2 (-0.1) Biden +0.7
IA avg Trump 1.3 (+0.1) Trump (+0.3)
AZ avg Biden 3.5 (-0.1) Biden -0.4
NV avg Biden 5.9 (-0.2) Biden -0.7)
Trump Approval 41.4 (-0.1) 0.7
Trump Disapproval 54.7 (+0.1) -0.3
Favorability Biden 12.4 (0) Biden (+1.9)
Direction of the Country -45.4 (+0.6) 1.7
Generic Ballot Dem 8.8 (0) 0
Betting Markets Biden 60.4 (-0.5) Biden -0.6
Rasmussen GE n/a n/a
Rasmussen Trump Approval 46 (-2) -4
FoxNews GE n/a n/a
Fox News Trump Approval n/a n/a
ABC/Wash GE n/a n/a
ABC/Wash Trump Approval n/a n/a
Marist GE n/a n/a
Marist Trump Approval n/a n/a
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton 6.5 1.5
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +1 -2.2

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It's concering, yes, for team blue that Trump is eeking upward. But I'm not going to start hyperventilating because he's recovered .2 or .3 points of ground in the span of a week in several states. If it begins to creep towards +5 territory overall then I'll be more concerned. But right now it's still at +7.5. That's still pretty large.

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10 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

It's concering, yes, for team blue that Trump is eeking upward. But I'm not going to start hyperventilating because he's recovered .2 or .3 points of ground in the span of a week in several states. If it begins to creep towards +5 territory overall then I'll be more concerned. But right now it's still at +7.5. That's still pretty large.

I plan to hyperventilate the entire way.  Biden could be polling at 100% in Mississippi and I'll still be convinced Trump will win.

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11 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I plan to hyperventilate the entire way.  Biden could be polling at 100% in Mississippi and I'll still be convinced Trump will win.

That's not good for your health ;)

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14 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I plan to hyperventilate the entire way.  Biden could be polling at 100% in Mississippi and I'll still be convinced Trump will win.

 

3 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

That's not good for your health ;)

And, in your profession, you'd likely get mandatorily, proactively put on medical isolation. :P

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19 minutes ago, Wiw said:

How is he doing this!?

I think you are somehow involved.

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10 hours ago, Cenzonico said:

image.png.e937689ae71c46c739ad2307efb22784.png

His uptick has just come out of nowhere frankly, if I was Blue Team I would be watching this very closely. 

States began to reopen, and many people attempted to return to normal life. The stock market reached new highs and jobs numbers started to recover.

However, all that may reverse again as coronavirus strikes back and takes down the economy.

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Good economic news today for Trump and a really big opportunity missed for Biden last week when those GDP numbers came out instead everyone lost their shit over a Trump tweet. 

RCP has Biden up just outside the margain of error In overall battle ground states which isnt awful for Trump as now Biden is going to have to leave his basement as we get closer to the election .

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36 minutes ago, billay said:

Good economic news today for Trump and a really big opportunity missed for Biden last week when those GDP numbers came out instead everyone lost their shit over a Trump tweet. 

RCP has Biden up just outside the margain of error In overall battle ground states which isnt awful for Trump as now Biden is going to have to leave his basement as we get closer to the election .

Economic upturns do not make an incompetent, narcissistic, divisive, vitriolic, vapid, and emotionally immature President who really care about the nation he leads or it's people as opposed to his personal image and has no plan or platform whose already pulled a hoodwink in 2016 ("fool me once, you're the fool, fool me twice, I'm the fool,") magically a redeemed and good leader, especially when U.S. Presidents (or apex national executive officeholder in most countries) never deserve even remotely near the full credit or blame they're often given for their national economic performance, by personal action or merit.

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