Jump to content
270soft Forum

Reports of Trump's Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated


Recommended Posts

A recent Quinnipiac poll for the Florida Presidential race conducted 7/16-7/20 (an outlier for sure) shows Biden with a 15% lead on Trump. But let’s take a closer look. The breakdown shows Republicans Trump 88-10, Democrats Biden 89-2 and Independents and others 48-32 Biden. They don’t mention what the respondents’ party break down was.

 

               REP                       DEM                     IND/OTH                            TOTAL

Trump   88% x.43             2% x.56               32% x.01             39.3%

Biden     10% x.43             89% x.56             48% x.01             54.6%

Unsure  2% x.43               9% x.56               20% x.01             6.1%

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

In fact, working algebraically backwards (thanks Wolfram), we can reverse-engineer this result to show 43% Republican, 56% Democrat, and 1% Independent. Those percentages, applied to the above poll, demonstrate this, which just about matches their overall statewide conclusion. Looks pretty bad for Trump, huh?

 

Here’s the problem though – this poll is MASSIVELY mis-sampled. According to the Florida Secretary of State, the party registration is 36% Republican, 37% Democrat, 27% independent or other. If we take the individual party responses for the poll above and apply the Florida registered voter percentages, we get something very different:

 

ACTUAL FLORIDA REGISTRATION

 

               REP                       DEM                     IND/OTH                            TOTAL

Trump   88% x.36             2% x.37               32% x.26                            40.7%

Biden     10% x.36             89% x.37             48% x.26                            49.0%

Unsure  2% x.36               9% x.37               20% x.26                           9.3%

-------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Clearly still not great for Trump, but we’re talking about an 8.3% difference vs. 15.3%, a 7% swing. And the Quinnipiac results were an outlier. Another thing to notice is that I did a study of recent polls in PA, OH, NC, MI, WI, MN, FL, GA, and AZ. Almost all of the polls showing Biden with the largest leads are done with registered, not likely, voters. Pollsters rarely show their party breakdown or cross-tabs. They have to take the raw results and predict what the demographics of the people actually voting on November 3 will be - a nearly impossible task. And not one of the recent polls in ANY of those states, that used likely voters (as opposed to registered) show Biden with any more than a 6% advantage.

 

Then you have a recent Cato poll showing 62% of voters are afraid to voice their political opinions. That silent majority is real. If even 1 in 10 Trump voters lie about their preference, and this would happen regardless of the pollster or any perceived partisan skew, then that would make another 4-6% difference. Next thing you know an 8.3% difference in Florida can be as little as 2.3%. Again I point out that the Quinnipiac Florida poll was an outlier to begin with.

Conclusion? This race is VERY MUCH up for grabs. Is this an uphill battle for Trump? Possibly. But this is nowhere NEAR in the bag for Biden. The polls have gotten this wrong time and time again and they seem poised to do the same in 2020.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The numbers in swing states are too close to declare Trump done matter of fact they seem to be getting closer. IMO Texas is fools gold for Democrats if they spend alot of time and money there it's a shame. I think Trump ends up winning TX, GA, FL, AZ, and North Carolina. If that happens what does he need? WI and MI or PA?

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, billay said:

The numbers in swing states are too close to declare Trump done matter of fact they seem to be getting closer. IMO Texas is fools gold for Democrats if they spend alot of time and money there it's a shame. I think Trump ends up winning TX, GA, FL, AZ, and North Carolina. If that happens what does he need? WI and MI or PA?

I agree with this sentiment.  It ain't over until it's over, and we fell for Texas in 2016.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm beginning to think this isn't 2016. I don't want to get overconfident, but I'm pretty sure Biden can net the big 3 (PA, WI, MI), and take AZ. Beyond that I'm not very sure, but I think as much distrust of the polls that there is, will end up making a lot of conservatives unhappy come November 3rd.

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

 lot of conservatives

Not all of us though 😉

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I'm beginning to think this isn't 2016. I don't want to get overconfident, but I'm pretty sure Biden can net the big 3 (PA, WI, MI), and take AZ. Beyond that I'm not very sure, but I think as much distrust of the polls that there is, will end up making a lot of conservatives unhappy come November 3rd.

Sure, but I was also pretty sure Clinton could do most of those things too -- especially against Trump, and especially post "grab them by the pussy."

Now I take nothing for granted.

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Sure, but I was also pretty sure Clinton could do most of those things too -- especially against Trump, and especially post "grab them by the pussy."

Now I take nothing for granted.

Yeah, I get that. But there's a lot of differences between Biden and Clinton. He is much better liked than her, his approval rating is at least 10 points higher than hers, if not even beyond that. I'm not saying to take anything for granted, but I wouldn't say Trump is ahead at this point by any means at all. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

He is much better liked than her, his approval rating is at least 10 points higher than hers, if not even beyond that.

Though, to be fair, I think most of that is definitely because he's running against Trump's re-election, rather than any admirable qualities of his own.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hestia11 said:

I'm beginning to think this isn't 2016. I don't want to get overconfident, but I'm pretty sure Biden can net the big 3 (PA, WI, MI), and take AZ. Beyond that I'm not very sure, but I think as much distrust of the polls that there is, will end up making a lot of conservatives unhappy come November 3rd.

Actual conservatives won't be happy on election day regardless, since neither of the larger parties has a conservative candidate

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, pilight said:

Actual conservatives won't be happy on election day regardless, since neither of the larger parties has a conservative candidate

I'd imagine they'd be happy to at least have their own party run by a conservative again, even if that individual isn't in the White House yet.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...