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State of the Race: 94 Days Left


94 Day Poll  

21 members have voted

  1. 1. Look at the date in my post: Who wins if the election is today?

  2. 2. Which of the following do you agree with regarding Covid?

    • We need to start over and enforce a stricter nation-wide shutdown for about two weeks.
    • Schools and any business that can operate remotely online should shift to online only until the end of the year.
    • Mask-wearing should be enforced.
    • Social distancing should be enforced.
    • Mask-wearing should be ridiculed.
    • Social distancing should be ridiculed.
      0
    • All schools and businesses should be forcibly opened.
    • We should completely end the shutdown---business as usual.
    • Democratic governors have mostly handled Covid better than Republican governors.
    • Republican governors have mostly handled Covid better than Democratic governors.
    • Trump has mostly done a good job handling the pandemic.
    • Trump has mostly done a bad job handling the pandemic.
    • Congress should pass a bill with a larger stimulus check.
    • Congress should not have a stimulus check in Covid bills.
      0
    • Congress should keep or expand the $600 expansion to unemployment claims.
    • Congress should remove any boosts to unemployment checks.
      0
    • If I get coronavirus I'm more likely to listen to Trump or Rep. Gohmert on what medicine I should take than what professional medical experts say I should do.
      0
    • To avoid coronavirus, I prefer the advice of Trump and Gohmert over people like Dr. Fauci.
    • I am taking strict precautions to avoid getting Coronavirus (Mask wearing, social distancing, staying inside almost all day, washing hands, etc.)
    • I am not being too strict with Coronavirus precautions (I only sometimes wear a mask, I don't really social distance, etc.)
    • I am not taking any precautions.
    • Coronavirus is a hoax.
      0
    • I personally know someone who has gotten coronavirus
    • I don't personally know someone who has gotten coronavirus
    • Other (tell us below)


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Starting today, I will have the daily and weekly shifts. Blue trends for Biden and Red for Trump. The Daily poll looks good for Trump. The Weekly poll is more hit or miss for each. At the very bottom, I'll put a map that shows what this trend could look like on election day:

Categories 94 94-A Week Ago
Gen Avg Biden 8.2 (-0.1) Biden +0.2
MI Avg Biden 8.1 (-0.1) Biden +0.7
WI Avg Biden 7.1 (0) Biden 0
PA Avg Biden 6.6 (-0.1) Biden -0.2
NH Avg Biden 9.3 (+1.8) Biden +1.8
NC avg Biden 2.0 (0) Biden -0.2
FL avg Biden 6.0 (0) Biden -1.6
GA avg Trump 1.2 (0) Trump -0.1
TX avg Biden 0.6 (-0.1) Biden +0.6
OH avg Trump 0.5 (+0.1) Trump +2.6
IA avg Trump 1.0 (0) Trump +0.7
AZ avg Biden 3.9 (-0.1) Biden 1.0
NV avg Biden 6.6 (-0.1) Biden -0.1
Trump Approval 40.7 (+0.1) 0.5
Trump Disapproval 55.0 (-0.5) -0.7
Favorability Biden 10.5 (-0.9) Biden -1.2
Direction of the Country -47.1 (-1.2) -1.6
Generic Ballot Dem 8.8 (0) Dem +0.2
Betting Markets Biden 61.0 (+0.1) Biden +0.3
Rasmussen GE n/a n/a
Rasmussen Trump Approval 50 (+2) 1
FoxNews GE n/a n/a
Fox News Trump Approval n/a n/a
ABC/Wash GE n/a n/a
ABC/Wash Trump Approval n/a n/a
Marist GE n/a n/a
Marist Trump Approval n/a n/a
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +5 0
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +3.2 0.2

dwRv8.png

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75

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39 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Question 2 should be multiple choice, shouldn't it?

It is.

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I'm in between strict precautions and not being too strict. I always socially distance and wash my hands. Sometimes I forget the mask and I haven't really sanitized like my car or the front door or anything. 

I have been more or less limiting my time outside at like businesses or parks or what have you. 

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I am wearing a mask 100% of the time that I am away from my house.  I'm making a half-assed attempt at social distancing, and not disinfecting anything that I wouldn't disinfect under normal circumstances.  I do wash my hands frequently as I work in a hospital with more than 100 positive cases, but other than that my primary defense has been my mask.  

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Just now, Actinguy said:

I am wearing a mask 100% of the time that I am away from my house.  I'm making a half-assed attempt at social distancing, and not disinfecting anything that I wouldn't disinfect under normal circumstances.  I do wash my hands frequently as I work in a hospital with more than 100 positive cases, but other than that my primary defense has been my mask.  

We were being much more strict about social distancing for the first few months.  But as things began opening back up, we've been less strict about it as long as everyone is wearing a mask.

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I wear a mask when I go out. I almost never leave the house. I social distance. I haven't gone anywhere except for a root canal. I have food and groceries dropped off. I walk around the block twice a day. 

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30 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I wear a mask when I go out. I almost never leave the house. I social distance. I haven't gone anywhere except for a root canal. I have food and groceries dropped off. I walk around the block twice a day. 

You're going to double in weight by the time this is over... :P

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31 minutes ago, Patine said:

You're going to double in weight by the time this is over... :P

I weigh 201 lbs now. I was at 192 lbs. The most I ever weighed was 216 lbs, about a year ago. Historically, 170-180 lbs was my weight from c. 2001-c. 2015. My metabolism has slowed down since I've gotten older. Still, at 6'4" even 216 lbs doesn't look too bad, but my blood pressure is a lot higher at that point and I snore. I'm trying to get back down to 180 somehow. During the Great Recession, when I was eating once a day, I dropped down to 155 lbs. Might have been lower at some point, but I only weighed myself once during the height of that. 

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@vcczar change my answer at the end there. A family member of mine was just diagnosed, the first person I personally know who has contracted it.

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In the 95 days to go I was wondering why Trump failed the covid response (which for me is now what takes his chances of re-election down).

And a very interesting article talks about Trump's plan to face covid

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/how-jared-kushners-secret-testing-plan-went-poof-into-thin-air?

The plan of Kushner is such idiotic I can not believe "if this article is true" that he is payed by taxpayers as political advisor.

116585210_1503069463197304_8877354515503319768_n.png?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=b96e70&_nc_ohc=qK9QJqoUbPgAX-49i33&_nc_ht=scontent-cdt1-1.xx&oh=6614da0baa381c2ada52941d0d02154e&oe=5F488FC3

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13 minutes ago, Edouard said:

In the 95 days to go I was wondering why Trump failed the covid response (which for me is now what takes his chances of re-election down).

And a very interesting article talks about Trump's plan to face covid

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/how-jared-kushners-secret-testing-plan-went-poof-into-thin-air?

The plan of Kushner is such idiotic I can not believe "if this article is true" that he is payed by taxpayers as political advisor.

116585210_1503069463197304_8877354515503319768_n.png?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=b96e70&_nc_ohc=qK9QJqoUbPgAX-49i33&_nc_ht=scontent-cdt1-1.xx&oh=6614da0baa381c2ada52941d0d02154e&oe=5F488FC3

Yes because it’s not as if the 2nd and 3rd largest states in the nation are run by two high profile Republicans 🙄

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32 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

@vcczar change my answer at the end there. A family member of mine was just diagnosed, the first person I personally know who has contracted it.

I’m sorry to hear. Wishing the family member all the best. I’ve had three friends get it. I kind of wonder if I had it in December. But I’m unsure. 

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1 hour ago, wolves said:

Anyone else think the polls are gonna start tightening soon?

Tough to tell at this point imo. Biden has a good lead but once the conventions are done we might start seeing things get more interesting. 

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The failure to get moe stimulus passed and extending the unemployment is a huge blow IMO.

You would think the GOP machine would be out in full force ASAP. The silence is amazing.  Did Trump run that part of the party off when he was "draining the swamp" ?

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12 hours ago, billay said:

You would think the GOP machine would be out in full force ASAP. The silence is amazing.  Did Trump run that part of the party off when he was "draining the swamp" ?

I'd have to say yes.

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My current prediction595507844_ScreenShot2020-08-01at8_10_23PM.thumb.png.2e78d8ab98f0124ad963a147baf47354.png

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14 hours ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

My current prediction595507844_ScreenShot2020-08-01at8_10_23PM.thumb.png.2e78d8ab98f0124ad963a147baf47354.png

Just to make sure this isn't an oversight, but you think Biden will get both of Maine's CDs but none of Nebraska's? That aside, this is the most realistic map I've seen. 

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1 hour ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

Just to make sure this isn't an oversight, but you think Biden will get both of Maine's CDs but none of Nebraska's? That aside, this is the most realistic map I've seen. 

I meant to add the NE cd

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I actually voted for very few items here. As a libertarian, I believe government force is an absolute last resort. They should not (and CAN NOT really) enforce mask  wearing especially on a Federal level, nor should they forcibly open businesses.

As far as stimulus checks, money should be given to people who are out of work through no fault of their own strictly due to Covid related closures. (A pure libertarian probably shouldn't even favor that) The problem I continue to have is that a question like that, much like the stimulus packages themselves, are overbroad. I have no problem in theory extending $600 (or even more) to people who really need it, but the problem is that the House is spending trillions of dollars at a time in very broad sweeping spending programs, and what I do have a problem with is that this $600 is being claimed by people who COULD return to re-opened businesses, but who will make MORE money sitting at home than working. That is what's un-American. So the devil's always in the details with these things.

Incidentally there have been no VP related questions for some time. I am waiting in breathless anticipation to find out who Biden's running mate will be... and from what I hear, so is Joe Biden.

 

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8 hours ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

Just to make sure this isn't an oversight, but you think Biden will get both of Maine's CDs but none of Nebraska's? That aside, this is the most realistic map I've seen. 

 https://www.270towin.com/map-images/DWOzg 

image.thumb.png.5d1d16f3675d31fe3613187fc520e281.png

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