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State of the Race: 95 Days Left


95 Day Poll  

19 members have voted

  1. 1. See the date in the first post in the thread: If the election were held today, who would win?

  2. 2. Do you support Trump's desire to postpone the presidential election?

    • Yes
      0
    • Leaning Yes
    • Leaning No
      0
    • No
  3. 3. Do you support mail-in ballots for the Presidential Election. Check all that apply

    • I support mail-in ballots.
    • I do not support mail-in ballots.
    • This will increase turnout nationally since people won't have to wait in line.
    • This will create a fraudulent election. (Trump's unsupported claim)
    • This will decrease turnout.
    • This will help combat the sometimes illegal and sometimes unethical voter suppression at some polling districts.
    • Other
  4. 4. The US just posted its worse drop on record (worse than the Great Recession), officially killing the Obama-Trump economic expansion since the Great Recession. Who will suffer most in November because of this?

    • Donald Trump, since he's the president presiding during the economic collapse.
    • Joe Biden, since people won't blame Trump and will likely fault Biden in some way.
      0
    • Democrats in the US House of Representatives.
      0
    • Republicans in the US Senate.
    • State Governors.
      0
    • All incumbents regardless of party (So Trump, Pelosi, McConnell, and governors, etc will all suffer in November).
  5. 5. Considering the economic collapse reported today, how long do you expect it to take to get the economy back to the level it was pre-Covid?

    • It will have returned approximately where it was by election day, assuring a Trump victory.
      0
    • It will take about 6 months, with the winner of 2020 reaping the benefits of having saved the country.
    • It will have returned shortly before next midterms, allowing the winner of the 2020 election to maintain or increase support in those elections for his party.
    • It won't have returned until after midterms, which means the winner of the 2020 election could see a wave of opposition, reducing his support in the Houses of Congress.
    • It will not have recovered and returned to a strong economy by the 2024 election, which means the opposition party of the winner of the 2020 election will likely take over the presidency in 2024.
      0
    • The economy will never return to the Obama-Trump expansion anytime soon. If our country is not permanently crippled, then we might see a boom sometime after 2024 with great reform.


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Here's today's update. As usual, Blue is trending Biden and Red is trending Trump. 

Good news for Biden, Trump didn't run the tables today. Additionally, his lead is still strong in almost every poll. 

Good news for Trump, NC and FL have been trending Trump for three days. Trump's approval is still slowly rising, and his disapproval is slowly decreasing. 

 

Categories 100 Days Left 99 Days 98 97 96 95
Gen Avg Biden +8 Biden +8 Biden 8.2 (+0.2) Biden 8.3 (+0.1) Biden 8.2 (-0.1) Biden 8.3 (+0.1)
MI Avg Biden +7.4 Biden +7.7 (+0.3) Biden 7.7 (0) Biden 7.9 (+0.2) Biden 7.7 (-0.2) Biden 8.2 (+0.5)
WI Avg Biden +7.1 Biden +7.1 Biden 7.2 (+0.1) Biden 7.2 (0) Biden 6.8 (-0.4) Biden 7.1 (+0.3)
PA Avg Biden +6.8 Biden +6.7 (-0.1) Biden 6.8 (+0.1) Biden 7.0 (+0.2) BIden 6.6 (-0.4) Biden 6.7 (+0.1)
NH Avg Biden +7.5 Biden +7.5 Biden 7.6 (+0.1) Biden 7.6 (0) Biden 7.3 (-0.3) Biden 7.5 (+0.2)
NC avg Biden +2.2 Biden +2.2 Biden 3.0 (+0.8) Biden 2.4 (-0.6) Biden 2.3 (-0.1) Biden 2.0 (-0.3)
FL avg Biden +7.6 Biden +7.1 (-0.5) Biden 7.2 (+0.1) Biden 6.5 (-0.7) Biden 6.1 (-0.4) Biden 6.0 (-0.1)
GA avg Trump +1.3 Trump +1.3 Trump 1.3 (0) Trump 0.6 (-0.7) Trump 1.2 (+0.6) Trump 1.2 (0)
TX avg Tie 0.0 Tie 0.0 Trump 0.1 (+0.1) Biden 0.7 (+0.8) Biden 0.6 (-0.1) Biden 0.7 (+0.1)
OH avg Biden +2.1 Biden +1.3 (-0.8) Biden 1.4 (+0.1) Biden 0.1 (-1.3) Trump 0.5 (+0.6) Trump 0.4 (-0.1)
IA avg Trump +0.3 Trump +0.3 Trump 0.2 (-0.1) Trump 0.2 (0) Trump 1.1 (+0.9) Trump 1.0 (-0.1)
AZ avg Biden +2.9 Biden +3.3 (+0.4) Biden 3.3 (0) Biden 3.9 (+0.6) Biden 3.6 (-0.3) Biden 4.0 (+0.4)
NV avg Biden +6.7 Biden +6.7 Biden 6.9 (+0.2) Biden 6.8 (-0.1) Biden 6.6 (-0.2) Biden 6.7 (+0.1)
Trump Approval 40.2 40.2 (0) 40.1 (-0.1) 40.1 (0) 40.3 (+0.2) 40.6 (+0.3)
Trump Disapproval 55.7 55.8 (+0.1) 55.8 (0) 55.8 (0) 55.7 (-0.1) 55.5 (-0.2)
Favorability Biden +11.7 Biden +11.7 Biden +11.7 Biden +11.7 Biden 11.4 (-0.3) Biden 11.4
Direction of the Country -45.5 -45.5 -45.5 -45.5 -45.4 (+0.1) -45.9 (-0.5)
Generic Ballot Democrats +8.6 Democrats +8.6 Democrats +8.6 Democrats +8.6 Dem 8.8 (+0.2) Dem 8.8
Betting Markets Biden 60.7 Biden 60.7 Biden 61.0 (+0.3) Biden 60.9 (-0.1) Biden 60.6 (-0.3) Biden 60.9 (+0.3)
Rasmussen GE n/a n/a n/a n/a Biden +6 n/a
Rasmussen Trump Approval 49 n/a 46 (-3) 45 (-1) 45 (0) 48 (+3)
FoxNews GE n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Fox News Trump Approval n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
ABC/Wash GE n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
ABC/Wash Trump Approval n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Marist GE n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Marist Trump Approval n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +5 Clinton +5 Clinton +3 Clinton +4.5 Clinton +5 Clinton +4
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +3 Biden +3 Biden +5.2 Biden +3.7 Biden +3.2 Biden +4.3

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Once a week passes, I'll have a weekly trend update as well. I think we are about a day or two until I've had a week's worth of data. 

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1 hour ago, Wiw said:

What, the economy's collapsed now? It's just one nightmare after another!

The GDP shrunk by 9% last quarter.

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I remember seeing this back in 2016, but with nationwide exit polls in 2016 from CNN, most of the people who identified as 'independent' voted Trump, while most people who identified as 'moderate' voted Democrat. Weird thought I just remembered.

pepescrossing.thumb.jpg.b68a103cf2c9e3ce7fd581a53a538053.jpg

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3 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I remember seeing this back in 2016, but with nationwide exit polls in 2016 from CNN, most of the people who identified as 'independent' voted Trump, while most people who identified as 'moderate' voted Democrat. Weird thought I just remembered.

pepescrossing.thumb.jpg.b68a103cf2c9e3ce7fd581a53a538053.jpg

That makes sense. 

They need to do a better job at tracking these two groups in addition to the possibly overlapping voters that are undecided and dislike both candidates. 

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6 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I remember seeing this back in 2016, but with nationwide exit polls in 2016 from CNN, most of the people who identified as 'independent' voted Trump, while most people who identified as 'moderate' voted Democrat. Weird thought I just remembered.

pepescrossing.thumb.jpg.b68a103cf2c9e3ce7fd581a53a538053.jpg

Yes, those "Independent," and "Moderate," votes show yet another example of the crime, injustice, and betrayal of the voters, and the corrupt theft of their choice in elections and leaders, and the rigged Duopoly system, and why it really should be broken (and why the members, sitting and retired, of the RNC, DNC, FEC, and the Media barons given by fiat they don't deserve too much direct power over the process, should be tried for electoral malfeasance and interference on numerous counts - you know, the crimes these enigmatic Russian hackers are blamed for in 2016).

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7 hours ago, vcczar said:

That makes sense. 

They need to do a better job at tracking these two groups in addition to the possibly overlapping voters that are undecided and dislike both candidates. 

I agree. And honestly I wrongly put the groups together somewhat, but it does make a ton of sense, especially concerning the 2016 election in general.

Independents simply means they don't align with a party - it has nothing to do with their political beliefs. There's socialist independents like Bernie, and conservative or libertarian independents as well. I feel it's a safe assumption that a large number of independents are fed up with the two-party system (hence the reason they're not registered with a party), and voted for Trump, as he was basically a political outsider at the point.

On the other hand, moderate is an ideology, mostly in between on the conservative and liberal spectrum. There's not likely any extreme points on the moderates' side. This makes sense why they'd vote for Clinton, as she was the less 'extreme' candidate, and the obviously safer choice. Also moderates can be apart of a political party, so a moderate Republican who didn't like Trump probably would have voted for Clinton.

I forget which group was larger, (I think independents) but the more I think about it the more it makes sense. Honestly they could be the two most important groups of this election. I think Joe has won the moderates group over by a large margin (I'd even go as far as to say bigger than Clinton's) that I don't see changing, while the Independents are a toss-up, but I haven't really gotten into the statistics so that's just me talking out of my ass on this paragraph.

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What kills Trump is easy

He made a huge tactical mistake.

When coronavirus occured, of course it would lead to kill the economy.

It did the same in most countries where leaders were expecting to win their re-election on unemployment and economic growth.

But when the wave of covid took growth, governments decided to put health security first. It helped them.

And especially leaders such as Justin Trudeau in Canada who got back to 40% (before that a scandal takes his lead down but it was independent).

Trump was not willing to do things like Gov Dewine, he wanted to keep good economic results so he tried to rush the security measures first, then he completely switched and backdropped on things like masks.

What happened? Americans were more worried about covid so that he has to adjust his message.

And this is where he got wrong. If Trump took measures and over-played the security guy since spring - just like the Rep Gov of Ohio, he would have a positive net approval ratings and he would lead over Joe Biden.

But it is not what he did, he showed to everyone that he first tried to maintain good economic results, then tried to use a security speech on covid but too it was too late. And in the end, he lost credibility on both.

His tax reform was great, but he damaged himself and finished him off in 4 months.

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2 hours ago, Edouard said:

What kills Trump is easy

He made a tactical huge mistake.

When coronavirus occured, of course it would lead to kill the economy.

It did the same in most countries where leaders were expecting to win their re-election on unemployment and economic growth.

But when the wave of covid took growth, governments decided to put health security first. It helped them.

And especially leaders such as Justin Trudeau in Canada who got back to 40% (before that a scandal takes his lead down but it was independent).

Trump was not willing to do things like Gov Dewine, he wanted to keep good economic results so he tried to rush the security measures first, then he completely switched and backdropped on things like masks.

What happened? Americans were more worried about covid so that he has to adjust his message.

And this is where he got wrong. If Trump took measures and over-played the security guy since spring - just like the Rep Gov of Ohio, he would have a positive net approval ratings and he would lead over Joe Biden.

But it is not what he did, he showed to everyone that he first tried to maintain good economic results, then tried to use a security speech on covid but too it was too late. And in the end, he lost credibility on both.

His tax reform was great, but he damaged himself and finished him off in 4 months.

Amen. Being ignorant on Covid was a huge mistake. 

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18 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I remember seeing this back in 2016, but with nationwide exit polls in 2016 from CNN, most of the people who identified as 'independent' voted Trump, while most people who identified as 'moderate' voted Democrat. Weird thought I just remembered.

pepescrossing.thumb.jpg.b68a103cf2c9e3ce7fd581a53a538053.jpg

Yeah not all independents are moderates. I guess many people are independents, because the parties are not extreme enough to them.

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2 hours ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Yeah not all independents are moderates. I guess many people are independents, because the parties are not extreme enough to them.

Or there aren't enough parties allowed to have a chance of winning in the corrupt, rigged electoral system to allow true choice and a healthy and functional political system, as I've been saying.

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7 hours ago, Edouard said:

He made a tactical huge mistake.

His whole campaign this time around has been a huge tactical mistake.

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1 hour ago, MBDemSoc said:

His whole campaign this time around has been a huge tactical mistake.

Indeed !

But this is strange to me

Trump only had to play the security card on the covid issue since the beginning and he would lead over Biden

For example here are the results of the South Korean general elections which took place during the pandemic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_South_Korean_legislative_election

Lee Hae-chan the Premier of South Korea received a landslide in return for his covid-handling.

Trump only had to renounce to his economic focus for a while in exchange of making the health crisis first, and he would have a "Bush 2004 security" boost for re-election.

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