vcczar 1,227 Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 The Leads In Each Election On July 14: 2004: Kerry +2.5 2008: Obama +4 2012: Obama +2.4 2016: Clinton: +3.1 2020: Biden +9 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kingthero 8 Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 I'm just worried this will be a repeat of 1948: an unpopular President that is expected to be defeated by a decent margin, but through a few key issues and a few blunders, manages to pull a victory. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,227 Posted July 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Kingthero said: I'm just worried this will be a repeat of 1948: an unpopular President that is expected to be defeated by a decent margin, but through a few key issues and a few blunders, manages to pull a victory. Polling was even more erratic in 1948 than it is now. Additionally, the only reason Truman was polling poorly was because 3rd party Wallace and 3rd party Thurmond were polling really well -- both being breakaway Democrats. Dewey was leading because the GOP was unified with one candidate. 3rd party turnout was high as expected. Truman worked to decrease this---many of Wallaces people went back to Truman and so did many of Thurmonds. 2020 won't be a repeat of 1948 but that doesn't mean something new can't happen that somehow results in Trump winning verses the polls. More people think 2020 will be a repeat of 2016. There are differences to suggest it won't be--one with Trump being an incumbent, but the other is that Biden, unlike Clinton, is polling beyond a margin of error for a Trump victory at the moment. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
pilight 237 Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 One of the major polling issues in 1948 was under-polling women, who overwhelmingly voted for Truman. There was a large increase in registered women in the 40's that wasn't accurately reflected in the polls. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Wiw 92 Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 2 hours ago, vcczar said: More people think 2020 will be a repeat of 2016. There are differences to suggest it won't be--one with Trump being an incumbent, but the other is that Biden, unlike Clinton, is polling beyond a margin of error for a Trump victory at the moment. I'm still pretty sure Russian interference will change that. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Patine 514 Posted July 14, 2020 Report Share Posted July 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wiw said: I'm still pretty sure Russian interference will change that. Everyone's all up in arms about electoral interference and malfeasance from Russian hackers, when the corrupt party caudillos in the DNC, RNC, and FEC, as well as the manipulative coverage (and encouraged to be manipulative) media giants, and big money donors and endorsers have been committing these crimes for decades, stealing countless elections. Why don't Americans want justice against serial crooks and enemies of the choice and power of the people in their choice of leaders? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
wolves 29 Posted July 15, 2020 Report Share Posted July 15, 2020 7 hours ago, vcczar said: Polling was even more erratic in 1948 than it is now. Additionally, the only reason Truman was polling poorly was because 3rd party Wallace and 3rd party Thurmond were polling really well -- both being breakaway Democrats. Dewey was leading because the GOP was unified with one candidate. 3rd party turnout was high as expected. Truman worked to decrease this---many of Wallaces people went back to Truman and so did many of Thurmonds. 2020 won't be a repeat of 1948 but that doesn't mean something new can't happen that somehow results in Trump winning verses the polls. More people think 2020 will be a repeat of 2016. There are differences to suggest it won't be--one with Trump being an incumbent, but the other is that Biden, unlike Clinton, is polling beyond a margin of error for a Trump victory at the moment. I do believe 538 did a piece (or Nate Cohen at least) that said that Trump is technically still polling within the MoE in the states he needs. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,227 Posted July 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolves said: I do believe 538 did a piece (or Nate Cohen at least) that said that Trump is technically still polling within the MoE in the states he needs. Was this recent? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
wolves 29 Posted July 15, 2020 Report Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 minute ago, vcczar said: Was this recent? Yesterday through CNN, also I said Nate Cohen, I mixed Nate Silver and for some reason thought Harry Enten's last name was Cohen. Anyway. I had a skim through it and am remembering it wrong, I still think it's right that Trump just needs to work on specific states to win (yay electoral college...) and he is in the margin of error in a lot of these states. He needs to get COVID-19 under control before he can even think of doing that though. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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