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Rasmussen Polls since March for Trump Approval


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Trump Approval--Weekly polls

  1. March 2 - 46%
  2. March 9 - 48%
  3. March 16 - 47%
  4. March 23 - 45%
  5. March 30 - 45%
  6. April 6 - 44%
  7. April 13 - 43%
  8. April 20 - 46%
  9. April 27 - 44%
  10. May 4 - 46%
  11. May 11 - 48%
  12. May 18 - 48%
  13. May 23 - 43%
  14. June 1 - 47%
  15. June 9 - 44%
  16. June 16 - 44%
  17. June 23 - 45%
  18. June 30 - 43%
  19. July 7 - 45%

I thought I'd do this poll because this is one of the only polls -- if not the only poll -- Conservatives seem open to considering when predicting the future election. Obviously, Trump isn't doing well here either. 

The reason why FiveThirtyEight gives Rasmussen a C+ is because:

  • It's accurate 75% of the time, but when it is off, the "Simple Average Error" is quite large.
  • It doesn't hold up well with other polls polling the same races, so it gets a mediocre "advanced" score. 
  • It gets a mediocre "predictive" score, which means it isn't as reliable as other polls for the future. 
  • It has a 1.5+ GOP bias, which is among the largest biases in all polls. 

Apparently, Monmouth is the most predictive score, but it has a 1.3+ Democrat bias. The second most predictive poll, Selzer & Co., might be the best poll, mainly because it's bias is 0.1, which is no bias at all. 

Selzer & Co has few polls, and here's the only general poll they've done so far that isn't state-level:

  1. Trump 48% approval on April 1
  2. Biden beats Trump +4 on April 1
  3. Dems +9 in generic ballot on April 1

Not enough date to really judge Selzer for the presidential race. They seem more focused on states. 

Monmouth shows the following (also far fewer polls than Rasmussen):

  1. Trump 46% approval on March 23
  2. Biden +3 on March 24
  3. Trump 44% approval on April 8
  4. Biden +4 on April 9
  5. Trump 43% on May 5
  6. Dems +10 in generic ballot on May 6
  7. Biden +9 on May 6
  8. Trump 42% on June 2
  9. Dems +9 in generic ballot on June 3
  10. Biden +11 on June 3
  11. Trump 41% on July 1
  12. Dems +9 in generic ballot on July 2
  13. Biden +12 on July 2

What's interesting is that there are three trends here since March---Trump's approval continues to go down, Biden's lead over Trump increases, Generic Democrat support is decreasing. If this is the most predictive polling company, then it probably means we are headed toward a Biden presidency, but with few Democratic successes in the US Senate and US House than anticipated. 

 

 

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