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Since the K4E engine - with overhang seats but no leveling seats - no longer actually mimics the system presently used in Germany, I decided to do a bit of an "alternate universe" scenario where Germany operates on the Australian alternative vote system, partly just because I'd already done a fair amount of research on the 2017 German election and didn't want to just let it go to waste. Here's a screenshot of the 2-party vote on Day 1:

image.png.3e225b33adc3d54fbcd964937b3eb54f.png

The main drawback so far is that this election wasn't particularly close under MMP, nor is it particularly close when I use the constituency vote in each seat as the starting point - even after putting in a 4-point universal shift in the SPD's favor, the stage is set for a huge CDU/CSU landslide. I only found a couple of RL events to incorporate, but if anyone has suggestions for some hypothetical events that would potentially make it a closer race, I'd love to hear them. I'm also open to suggestions for alternate leaders and preference flows - as things stand, I have most of the Green and Left vote flowing to the SPD and most of the Free Democratic and AfD vote flowing to the CDU/CSU, though the AfD and CDU/CSU also have Very Bad relations.

 

Germany - 2017 - AV.zip

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6 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

Since the K4E engine - with overhang seats but no leveling seats - no longer actually mimics the system presently used in Germany, I decided to do a bit of an "alternate universe" scenario where Germany operates on the Australian alternative vote system, partly just because I'd already done a fair amount of research on the 2017 German election and didn't want to just let it go to waste. Here's a screenshot of the 2-party vote on Day 1:

image.png.3e225b33adc3d54fbcd964937b3eb54f.png

The main drawback so far is that this election wasn't particularly close under MMP, nor is it particularly close when I use the constituency vote in each seat as the starting point - even after putting in a 4-point universal shift in the SPD's favor, the stage is set for a huge CDU/CSU landslide. I only found a couple of RL events to incorporate, but if anyone has suggestions for some hypothetical events that would potentially make it a closer race, I'd love to hear them. I'm also open to suggestions for alternate leaders and preference flows - as things stand, I have most of the Green and Left vote flowing to the SPD and most of the Free Democratic and AfD vote flowing to the CDU/CSU, though the AfD and CDU/CSU also have Very Bad relations.

 

Germany - 2017 - AV.zip 1.62 MB · 0 downloads

And it seems only the CSU/CDU and SPD actually got seats, save for a tiny number of extremists on the two very edges of the spectrum - but only a tiny number, defeating the whole purpose of the German MMP electoral system in the first place... :(

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

And it seems only the CSU/CDU and SPD actually got seats, save for a tiny number of extremists on the two very edges of the spectrum - but only a tiny number, defeating the whole purpose of the German MMP electoral system in the first place... :(

The Greens (who are not really extremists in the German context) and Left can win in Berlin, and the AfD have a shot at winning seats in a couple of eastern states. The FDP would require a minor miracle to win, as their support is simply too diffuse and rarely if ever gets above 10-15% in any individual seat. But yes, this system would relegate the smaller parties to exercising power primarily through their preference flows, just as the smaller parties in Australia tend to do.

And the SPD's only hope would probably still be a coalition with the Left and/or Greens given how far behind they start.

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20 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

The Greens (who are not really extremists in the German context) and Left can win in Berlin, and the AfD have a shot at winning seats in a couple of eastern states. The FDP would require a minor miracle to win, as their support is simply too diffuse and rarely if ever gets above 10-15% in any individual seat. But yes, this system would relegate the smaller parties to exercising power primarily through their preference flows, just as the smaller parties in Australia tend to do.

And the SPD's only hope would probably still be a coalition with the Left and/or Greens given how far behind they start.

Still, considering only Adenauer on his fourth (and final election) was able to claim complete one-party majority victory without requiring a coalition to govern in all of German Federal electoral legislative history (barring Nazi victories in the Third Reich and SED victories in the DDR), I think this experiment still runs very contrary to both the design and all precedents of the German electoral experience. That's kind of what I'm trying to say here.

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5 minutes ago, Patine said:

Still, considering only Adenauer on his fourth (and final election) was able to claim complete one-party majority victory without requiring a coalition to govern in all of German Federal electoral legislative history (barring Nazi victories in the Third Reich and SED victories in the DDR), I think this experiment still runs very contrary to both the design and all precedents of the German electoral experience. That's kind of what I'm trying to say here.

Well, I did say that it was an alternate universe scenario.

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3 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

Well, I did say that it was an alternate universe scenario.

I suppose so. Think of how completely different the view, conduct, and framework of German politics would be though. It would completely change the landscape of governance. For the better or worse is debatable, though.

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