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Biden within 2 pts in Arkansas? Probably an outlier

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A new poll has Biden only behind Trump by 2 in Arkansas. This is clearly an outlier from a poll rated B/C by FiveThirtyEight. However, if there is any truth to it, it means that some of Trump support could be drifting from him in even the most Pro-Trump states. Here's some interesting notes but keep in mind that this poll is likely slightly inaccurate of the true picture. However, an outlier poll can capture some truths if conducted properly:

  • Pres. Donald Trump -4 approval in Arkansas, including -15 by independents
  • Sen. Tom Cotton - -3 approval in Arkansas, including -12 by independents
  • Gov. Asa Hutchinson +43 approval in Arkansas, including +42 by independents
  • Trump has seen a 9 point drop since the last poll by this company in Arkansas in Nov 2019, while Cotton has dropped 15 pts. 
  • 47% of the people in this recent poll say they will vote for Trump.
  • 45% say they will vote for Joe Biden. 
  • 5% say they will vote 3rd party and 3% are unsure
  • Independents in Arkansas are +6 for Joe Biden
  • Women in Arkansas are +8 for Joe Biden
  • Trump won 60% of Arkansas (a landslide) in 2016. 

I'm hoping another Arkansas poll is conducted by another polling company soon to confirm if there is any truth to this. At this point, any poll showing Trump with under +10 in Arkansas is going to show a drastic loss of support from 2016. This is supposed to be one of his most supportive states. It would be like Maryland considering Trump. 

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