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Trump Disapproval/Approval Over Time


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I'm not sure how these numbers help Trump. While his approval has never been 50%, his disapproval started under 50%. This certainly has to hurt Trump's eleciton chances. I'll tag @admin_270 since he seems to be the last devil's advocate for Trump on this forum (note: formally agnostic on Trump): 

TrumpApprovalJune102020.jpg

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9 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm not sure how these numbers help Trump.

Are these numbers from 538?

If accurate, I don't think that trend helps Trump. But ... we're 5 months of trends away from election day. This is polling, albeit in a different form from a typical % poll. It's a lagging indicator, so what's it going to be like in 5 months? If it's similar or worse, my guess is it's pretty tough for him to thread the needle and win an EC victory anyways.

I think I've said this before - I find these sorts of polls of limited usefulness, because elections are choices, and so you have to know relative approvals, which is basically a typical poll.

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13 minutes ago, vcczar said:

This certainly has to hurt Trump's eleciton chances.

No, it's strictly speaking irrelevant to his election chances, because we're 5 months out.

What's (more) relevant are his numbers on election day.

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16 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Are these numbers from 538?

If accurate, I don't think that trend helps Trump. But ... we're 5 months of trends away from election day. This is polling, albeit in a different form from a typical % poll. It's a lagging indicator, so what's it going to be like in 5 months? If it's similar or worse, my guess is it's pretty tough for him to thread the needle and win an EC victory anyways.

I think I've said this before - I find these sorts of polls of limited usefulness, because elections are choices, and so you have to know relative approvals, which is basically a typical poll.

 

15 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

No, it's strictly speaking irrelevant to his election chances, because we're 5 months out.

What's (more) relevant are his numbers on election day.

In my opinion, I think it's a little dismissive to brush aside polling trends. There's a clear long-term difference form his early polling numbers to the rest of his presidency. That's the concern Trump's campaign team has to have. I can't imagine it returning to that, considering it has never returned to that, even in his best moments. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

In my opinion, I think it's a little dismissive to brush aside polling trends.

Not being dismissive. It looks (given this and various other polling) like he has a tough slog to win the Presidency at this point - a significant % of voters' intentions have to change between now and Nov.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

No, it's strictly speaking irrelevant to his election chances, because we're 5 months out.

What's (more) relevant are his numbers on election day.

I basically see it this way, and to answer @billay's thread here, as well:

Voting for Trump, again, for anyone who did, in a political void would be a matter of the old idiom, "Fool me once, you're the, fool me twice, I'm the fool." However, in a practical sense, the only other candidate who a remote chance at all to win - one of two candidates predetermined and institutionally guaranteed to be viable right from the nominations - Joe Biden, doesn't seem to be what's needed, willing to do enough, or tackle the real problems of the nation - or even of the majority of those who feel that he's the only horse to back.

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

I basically see it this way, and to answer @billay's thread here, as well:

Voting for Trump, again, for anyone who did, in a political void would be a matter of the old idiom, "Fool me once, you're the, fool me twice, I'm the fool." However, in a practical sense, the only other candidate who a remote chance at all to win - one of two candidates predetermined and institutionally guaranteed to be viable right from the nominations - Joe Biden, doesn't seem to be what's needed, willing to do enough, or tackle the real problems of the nation - or even of the majority of those who feel that he's the only horse to back.

In Biden’s defense, FDR and JFK were centrists before they were elected president, then they veered left in most areas. Clinton and Clinton were centrists as advertised. Obama veered to the center. LBJ, aside from Vietnam, veered far-left, after being a moderate Southern Dem. Truman was all over the place. If history has any lesson, Biden’s past and Biden’s current campaign will tell us little as to how he will act as President. The greater the Democrats in both houses of Congress, the more progressive he will be. This is the major determinant factor for veering left or right actually. It’s a fallacy to assume Biden will stay the same as he’s been.

 

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