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Interesting Election Forecast


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https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/

  • Biden has a 70.1% chance of winning; Trump, a 29.9% chance of winning. 
  • Forecast has Biden winning 319-219 in EVs on Average, but adjusted for states in which Biden averages a lead, it would translate to 334-204
  • Forecast has Biden winning PV 51.0%-44.8%, with 4.3% going 3rd party. 

I follow this guy on Twitter. He claims he's center-right politically. 

Here are forecast comparisons:

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/forecast-comparison

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/

  • Biden has a 70.1% chance of winning; Trump, a 29.9% chance of winning. 
  • Forecast has Biden winning 319-219 in EVs on Average, but adjusted for states in which Biden averages a lead, it would translate to 334-204
  • Forecast has Biden winning PV 51.0%-44.8%, with 4.3% going 3rd party. 

I follow this guy on Twitter. He claims he's center-right politically. 

Here are forecast comparisons:

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/forecast-comparison

Electin? Sounds like a pharmaceutical name. :P

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8 minutes ago, Patine said:

Electin? Sounds like a pharmaceutical name. :P

The "o" button on my keyboard requires me hitting it like 50 times. It barely works, 

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10 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Sorry, I'm not buying it.

Well, it was a mistype. You won't find "Electin," on the shelves of any pharmacy to buy anyways. :P

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/

  • Biden has a 70.1% chance of winning; Trump, a 29.9% chance of winning. 
  • Forecast has Biden winning 319-219 in EVs on Average, but adjusted for states in which Biden averages a lead, it would translate to 334-204
  • Forecast has Biden winning PV 51.0%-44.8%, with 4.3% going 3rd party. 

I follow this guy on Twitter. He claims he's center-right politically. 

Here are forecast comparisons:

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/forecast-comparison

My problem with this kind of forecast is, same as the other one you linked awhile back, we're in an unprecedented situation.

For example, the fundamentals aspect of his model uses an economic index.

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/forecast_methodology

Completely reasonable as a general idea, but to what extent is the economic downturn the U.S. just experienced going to reverse itself rapidly? At this point, it seems like a quick recovery is possible, so using current economic indicators is a bit silly, given the unprecedented situation. What we need to ask is where is the economy going to be in November? And we don't really know.

 

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Just now, admin_270 said:

My problem with this kind of forecast is, same as the other one you linked awhile back, we're in an unprecedented situation.

For example, the fundamentals aspect of his model uses an economic index.

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/forecast_methodology

Completely reasonable as a general idea, but to what extent is the economic downturn the U.S. just experienced going to reverse itself rapidly? At this point, it seems like a quick recovery is possible, so using current economic indicators is a bit silly, given the unprecedented situation. What we need to ask it where is the economy going to be in November? And we don't really know.

 

His forecast is to show what the election would be considering the situation is the same. Naturally, he's going to update it if things improve. He updates it almost every day. However, even prior to the Covid recession, it was showing Biden leading, if I remember correctly. 

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

His forecast is to show what the election would be considering the situation is the same.

Then it's not a forecast, it's a 'now-'cast. What's the point of calling it a forecast if you know these things are unprecedented and likely will change? Doesn't make any sense. BS.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Then it's not a forecast, it's a 'now-'cast. What's the point of calling it a forecast if you know these things are unprecedented and likely will change? Doesn't make any sense. BS.

Would you please divulge the math and calculations, taking the "unprecedented," nature of affairs and the socio-political divide as it is, including the strong possibility that Trump could plausibility lose re-election even with a strong economy (near unheard of in American politics, but remember "Uncle Louis," up here in 1957), and please tell us where you're predicted number of 80% chance of re-election was derived from? I'm sure @vcczar, and probably others, would like to know, too.

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

Would you please divulge the math and calculations, taking the "unprecedented," nature of affairs and the socio-political divide as it is, including the strong possibility that Trump could plausibility lose re-election even with a strong economy (near unheard of in American politics, but remember "Uncle Louis," up here in 1957), and please tell us where you're predicted number of 80% chance of re-election was derived from? I'm sure @vcczar, and probably others, would like to know, too.

I don't think people can use simple mathematical models to predict these things in the sort of situation we're in. It's fun, but nothing more. If they get it right, they probably didn't get it right for the right reasons.

The 80% is my best guess, based on everything I have read and seen combined with my sense of how these things work and the major people involved.

I'm not trying to pretend it's otherwise, or make it sound super fancy by saying it's a 'computer model' run '20,000 times' so it must be right! It's my intuition, take it or leave it.

 

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8 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Then it's not a forecast, it's a 'now-'cast. What's the point of calling it a forecast if you know these things are unprecedented and likely will change? Doesn't make any sense. BS.

Yeah, I think the terminology should change. All the forecasts are updated as events occur and new polls arrive, so they aren't really forecasts, except in the sense that a Weather forecast looks 10 days in advance, even if the weather is likely to change (seems like it's wrong half the time). 

I think the way to use these is to see where the forecast stands with the time remaining and to compare it with how a forecast look at this point in other elections. However, as stated in the other thread, that's less helpful since we haven't had a Covid Recession before. 

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20 minutes ago, Jayavarman said:

I don’t the that phenomenon will occur again now that he’s president. 

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Even if it didn't, this forecast doesn't take into account voter apathy, possible foreign interference, voter suppression, electoral fraud, all that. If it happened last time, it'll happen again!

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17 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Even if it didn't, this forecast doesn't take into account voter apathy, possible foreign interference, voter suppression, electoral fraud, all that. If it happened last time, it'll happen again!

Why is it all guaranteed to happen again? What force of repetition is at work? And don't say the "Fascist power of Trump's tyranny," or some other unhinged, out-of-touch-with-reality, histrionic response, please...

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2 hours ago, Wiw said:

I don't have to! I can just say that we haven't learned from history, and so we are condemned to repeat it.

What history? If you're referring to the "history," of the rise of Fascism in the 1920's to 1940's, you're WAAAAY off! And so are a lot of other people throwing the word "Fascist," around in a highly emotionally charged, irrational, irresponsible, and paranoid way right now. You're not a only one. But it's doing NO GOOD and ONLY HARM to any social consensus, and certainly to any solutions and progressing forward. It's tantamount to "crying wolf."

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Not exactly. I'm talking all those times when the Electoral vote trampled the Popular vote. I'm thinking 2000, 2016! We were much too cocky then, we thought the Democrats would win, and they still didn't.

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4 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Not exactly. I'm talking all those times when the Electoral vote trampled the Popular vote. I'm thinking 2000, 2016! We were much too cocky then, we thought the Democrats would win, and they still didn't.

Well, that's the doing of a bunch of aristocratic, elitist, self-righteous, wealthy White men who died around 200 years ago, not anyone alive today (except maybe for people constantly accepting as a permanent and unchangeable fait accompli an old Constitutional relic meant to show disdain and derision for the competence of the common voter and preserve Slave Power so the Southern States wouldn't secede before the Constitution even went into effect and making no serious attempt to modernize it).

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