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Donald Trump Presidency Poll


Donald Trump Presidency Poll  

21 members have voted

  1. 1. Where has Donald Trump done well as president? [Check all that apply]

    • Leadership style
      0
    • Presidential appointments, including judicial appointments
    • Handling and reacting to the 2020 protests
      0
    • Abortion policy
    • Criminal Justice policy, including on guns
    • Military policy
    • Foreign Affairs and diplomacy
    • Handling the economy, tax and trade policies
    • Handling and reacting to the Coronavirus epidemic
      0
    • Education policy
    • Energy and environment policies
    • Business and labor policies
    • Healthcare policies
    • Handling and reacting to disaster relief
    • Immigration policy, including detention centers and family seperation policy
      0
    • LGBT Rights
    • Policy and views towards science and scientists
      0
    • Handling and reaction to White Nationalists
    • His use of Christianity and the Bible
    • His handling and reaction to his impeachment and the investigations leading to it.
    • None of the above; he's failed in all of these.
  2. 2. If you had to bet all of your money and your life on who is more likely to win the election in November 2020, who would it be?

  3. 3. Which of the following presidents sometimes considered below average-to-failed is Donald Trump worse than?

    • Warren G Harding
    • Ulysses S Grant
    • Andrew Johnson
    • James Buchanan
    • Franklin Pierce
    • John Tyler
    • George W Bush
    • Jimmy Carter
    • Millard Fillmore
    • William Henry Harrison
    • Gerald Ford
    • Richard Nixon
    • Herbert Hoover
    • Calvin Coolidge
    • Zachary Taylor
    • Benjamin Harrison
    • Chester A Arthur
    • James A Garfield
    • Rutherford B Hayes
    • Martin Van Buren
    • None; Donald Trump has been average-to-great as president
      0
  4. 4. Who did you think was most likely to win the 2020 Election a year ago?

  5. 5. Which of the following is likely to happen in the 2020 election?

    • Trump will lose in a landslide
    • The GOP and their leaders will mostly disavow Trumpism and move another direction.
    • Trump will immediately announce that he's running for president in 2024.
    • Democrats will retake the Senate
    • Democrats will expand their lead in the US House
    • Democrats will expand their number of governorships
    • Joe Biden and/or his campaign will somehow blunder their opportunities, leading to another surprise Trump victory.


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6 minutes ago, vcczar said:

New poll

I think you lost me at "betting all my money and my life on," who would win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. As I've disagreed with @Actinguy (though more peaceably and amicably than a few other issues we've disagreed on) gambling is a social addiction and failing, and can easily lead one to ruin. The term "professional gambler," is, in fact, a farce. And if you're down to the point of "betting all of your money and life," on one single event - well, maybe, then you've fallen into what Karl Marx said was the demographic of the "most dangerous person in the world - someone who has nothing left to lose," but you aren't left with much or being much of a person if you're at the point you're doing ridiculous things like that, or the world has, by such a point, become so nihilistically dystopian anyways, it hardly matters to most.

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At this point, I am still saying Trump has 80% chance of winning in November.

I expect that number to go to either 100 or 0 as we get closer to election day (as any real prediction should, unlike silly 50-50 predictions, which are really just saying 'we don't know' - not a prediction in the usual sense at all).

The COVID-19 thing has been and still is a big question mark, but it looks like the U.S. is now moving beyond it. 3 significant things from the past week.

1. Riots and looting. My guess is this helps Trump, as he is running as a 'Daddy' figure, while Biden's campaign is running as a 'Mommy' figure.

2. 'Defund the police' calls. This is even worse than 'abolish ICE' calls. A great way to get suburbia to support Trump.

3. Good economic indicators (unemployment figures and stock market - I'm waiting for further data to confirm the former being accurate, but the latter is clear, the DJIA being back to where it was in early March and almost 10,000 points higher than in mid-late March).

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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

At this point, I am still saying Trump has 80% chance of winning in November.

I expect that number to go to either 100 or 0 as we get closer to election day (as any real prediction should, unlike silly 50-50 predictions, which are really just saying 'we don't know' - not a prediction in the usual sense at all).

The COVID-19 thing has been and still is a big question mark, but it looks like the U.S. is now moving beyond it. 3 significant things from the past week.

1. Riots and looting. My guess is this helps Trump, as he is running as a 'Daddy' figure, while Biden's campaign is running as a 'Mommy' figure.

2. 'Defund the police' calls. This is even worse than 'abolish ICE' calls. A great way to get suburbia to support Trump.

3. Good economic indicators (unemployment figures and stock market - I'm waiting for further data to confirm the former being accurate, but the latter is clear, the DJIA being back to where it was in early March and almost 10,000 points higher than in mid-late March).

Has "defund the police" actually come from anyone serious?  That's a sincere question, I legitimately don't know.  By "serious" I mean Biden, sitting Senators, sitting governors.  Not just a hashtag on twitter.

As for my own answers, I'm hedging my bets on number two.  If Trump wins, I double my networth.  If Biden wins, our country is saved.

For number three, I admittedly don't know everything there is to know about most of the Presidents named there, beyond maybe 6-7 sentences each off the top of my head.  And also ignoring the obvious that some of them were slave owners.  But all things equal, given when each one presided and what they could realistically achieve within those constraints, I'd put Trump at dead last.

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12 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Has "defund the police" actually come from anyone serious?  That's a sincere question, I legitimately don't know.

The Biden campaign hasn't said it that I'm aware of, but the Mayor of L.A. is a major figure, who recently announced he has canceled a planned $60M increase in the police budget and is instead cutting it by $100-150M.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/06/04/la-mayor-slashes-lapd-budget-as-calls-to-defund-police-slowly-pick-up-steam/#683a33b1ba36

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Just now, admin_270 said:

The Biden campaign hasn't said it that I'm aware of, but the Mayor of L.A. is a major figure, who recently announced he has canceled a planned $60M increase in the police budget and is instead cutting it by $100-150M.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/06/04/la-mayor-slashes-lapd-budget-as-calls-to-defund-police-slowly-pick-up-steam/#683a33b1ba36

Fair enough, thanks for the link.

 

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Also this

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/minneapolis-police-department-in-us-to-be-dismantled-after-black-man-george-floyds-death-city-council-2242362

Quote

"We committed to dismantling policing as we know it in the city of Minneapolis and to rebuild with our community a new model of public safety that actually keeps our community safe," Council President Lisa Bender told CNN.

 

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To be brutally honest, I've seen quite a bit, but... I've never, ever seen a Democratic candidate I believe in as little as Joe Biden. Just the fact that he's part of the Establishment is bad enough, but if the sexual assault allegations against him are true, then of course Trump's going to use it to steamroller him! And then he'll do it again in 2024!

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3 hours ago, admin_270 said:

1. Riots and looting. My guess is this helps Trump, as he is running as a 'Daddy' figure, while Biden's campaign is running as a 'Mommy' figure.

Yes, REAL respectable "Daddy," flee to the basement in terror and yell insults up the stairs when the "children become highly upset." I really don't know who you think is impressed by conduct here who hadn't already made a firm decision previously as is.

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3 hours ago, Actinguy said:

For number three, I admittedly don't know everything there is to know about most of the Presidents named there, beyond maybe 6-7 sentences each off the top of my head.  And also ignoring the obvious that some of them were slave owners.  But all things equal, given when each one presided and what they could realistically achieve within those constraints, I'd put Trump at dead last.

I could fill out eight worse U.S. Presidents (one of whom you'd know would be coming - and greatly deserves to be on such a list, as anyone with any conscience or sense of justice at all would say - who you'd often disagree with sharply, but I can't (and won't) fill out the poll as long as @vcczar makes answering that melodramatic, histrionic, and psychologically unhealthy, in terms of wording and phrasing, "betting," question as a mandatory entry.

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5 minutes ago, Patine said:

I could fill out eight worse U.S. Presidents (one of whom you'd know would be coming - and greatly deserves to be on such a list, as anyone with any conscience or sense of justice at all would say - who you'd often disagree with sharply, but I can't (and won't) fill out the poll as long as @vcczar makes answering that melodramatic, histrionic, and psychologically unhealthy, in terms of wording and phrasing, "betting," question as a mandatory entry.

Yawn

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4 hours ago, admin_270 said:

My guess is this helps Trump, as he is running as a 'Daddy' figure,

If your dad treated you the way that Donald Trump treats this country, I'm sincerely sorry that that happened to you.

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4 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Read a newspaper to see what I'm talking about. ;c)

I don't think most voters are going to think Trump caused the rioting and looting, but I might be wrong about that.

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14 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

You're the most self righteous poster on this forum. 

No, I'm not. I may be the most verbose and wordy about being self-righteous, which may lead to a false impression, but I'm not the most self-righteous one here. I DO admit to a significant degree of self-righteousness, something I need to work on, but it is something you and several others refuse to accede of as a trait in yourselves, and thus, by nature, without having acknowledged the flaw, are INCAPABLE of working to fix it.

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7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I don't think most voters are going to think Trump caused the rioting and looting, but I might be wrong about that.

Why would most voters think of Trump as an innocent victim and not an instigator here - other than his inner circle of Kool-Aid Kids?

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7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Read George Lakoff's Moral Politics for what I'm talking about.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_Politics_(book)

@Actinguy

I know this book. It's interesting, but it's one of those books that tries to place people in a box, when it is more of a spectrum. I do agree with two things about the book: 1) The argument that, on the whole, "Liberal" morality is superior to "Conservative" morality; and 2) That Hillary Clinton and Newt Gingrich are mostly nemesis for Conservatives and Liberals, respectively, than actually prototypical examples of the Liberal and Conservative moral types. This point is probably a precursor to Rachel Bitecoffer, Larry Sabato, and etc.'s theory of Negative Partisanship--the idea that people are more energized to vote against someone than to vote for someone. If true, this is the biggest argumentative theory for Trump losing in 2020. On the whole, people are angered by or hate Trump more than they are angered by or hate Biden. In 2016, Clinton as antagonistic as Trump. 

In regards to Newspapers, I think a better estimate of electability is by comparing changes in polls. While polls aren't prophecies, they'll capture change. If the election were held today, I can't think of any promising evidence that Trump could win. Could he win in November? Quite possibly. But what one should keep track of is:

  • How does the Direction of the Country polls shift in the last two weeks or last week of the election. 
  • How does the support for Biden and Trump among independents that dislike both candidates go in the last two weeks or last week of the election. 
  • Does Biden's lead extend beyond the margin of error in every high-rated poll in the battleground states. 

Biden has a rather historical lead on Trump right now. Since modern polling, an incumbent  has never recovered from such low approval numbers and battleground state polling numbers. From a polling perspective, no challenger to an incumbent has ever looks so inevitable  to become president, on paper. However, the Coronavirus, and the Coronavirus Recession are so novel, that we can't rely on history. So these facts aren't helpful. 

In regards to the protest. While I support them, and have taken part in them, I surmised their numbers would have been much smaller had Covid never struck. The world now seems fragile with a once-in-a century pandemic, a first ever national shutdown, swift job losses, and probably boredom at home, leading to frustration and a loss of purpose and freedom, although necessary to combat the virus. The protests could be forgotten by some by November, which helps Trump. Democrats will certainly bring it up in hopes it rekindles that anger. Maybe that will work. The "Abolish ICE" narrative thing won't have an impact against a wave election. It didn't in 2018. "Defund the Police" a policy not supported by Biden will not help or hurt him or help or hurt Trump. I think most people can differentiate the protesters from the looters (they are mostly acting independently), so that's weakens that Trump as Law & Order candidate helping him, besides a Law & Order candidate that's been investigated and impeached for arguably defying law is sort of ironic. My guess is that the protests/Law & Order debate will fade into just a platform topic and election promise, but won't have a voter-shifting impact. 

What might, however, is the upsurge in Covid cases, both from reopening the country and from the mass protests. The longer the pandemic is active, the worse it probably is for Trump. He needs the economy to be back at pre-Covid levels, if not better, to have a more likely chance at reelection than defeat. 

Last factor, the distortion of time in 2020, partially because of the shutdown and the frequency of crazy events is substantial. Never has a year seem to go by so quickly and so slowly at the same time. If the 2nd half of the year is anything like the 1st half, then even Covid could be background on election day. Can you believe impeachment was this year? Seems like it was two years ago. 

Nevertheless, I put my money on Biden winning. I think Trump fatigue is real. He's old and tiring. The novelty has worn off, and also on Twitter, a device he uses mainly to boast about himself and play the victim card. I think the shot to vote Trump out of office is going to be very enticing and energizing, while an effort to block Biden just doesn't seem as exciting considering that he isn't really antagonizing anyone except for the most hardcore Bernie Sanders supporters. 

 

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20 minutes ago, Patine said:

No, I'm not. I may be the most verbose and wordy about being self-righteous, which may lead to a false impression, but I'm not the most self-righteous one here. I DO admit to a significant degree of self-righteousness, something I need to work on, but it is something you and several others refuse to accede of as a trait in yourselves, and thus, by nature, without having acknowledged the flaw, are INCAPABLE of working to fix it.

I'm glad you are aware of a significant degree of self-righteousness. I was afraid you were going to deny it. I'm not sure who the most self-righteous person is on this Forum, but you and I are at least in the top 10. A new idea for a poll! "If you had to bet the entire life of your family and friends on who the most self-righteous person is on the 270Soft Forum is, who would you pick?"

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11 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm glad you are aware of a significant degree of self-righteousness. I was afraid you were going to deny it. I'm not sure who the most self-righteous person is on this Forum, but you and I are at least in the top 10. A new idea for a poll! "If you had to bet the entire life of your family and friends on who the most self-righteous person is on the 270Soft Forum is, who would you pick?"

The fact that there would even be a "Top Ten," of such a small, active core of posters is very telling in and of itself. :P

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Now, let's see if @SilentLiberty will come to his senses and admit he's a bit self-righteous of late, here and there, or whether he'll carry on his own self-righteousness through the "silent liberty," of continued denial.

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